If all goes well, Oneil Cruz will be rejoining the Pittsburgh Pirates after the trade deadline.
Cruz underwent surgery last night, and the Pirates anticipate his return in four months.
The team he left saw him leading off in front of Bryan Reynolds, Andrew McCutchen, and Carlos Santana. Perhaps all three will still be there in August. Perhaps they’ll be joined by a trade acquisition, rather than watching that trio deplete at the deadline. Perhaps the Pirates will still have a winning record by that point.
In order for that last “perhaps” to take place, the Pirates will need to figure out how to replace Oneil Cruz.
Cruz himself hasn’t reached irreplaceable status just yet. He does have that potential, and comes with the intimidation factor of a 6′ 7″ giant who can crush a baseball into the stands with an easy swing of the bat. No one else in this system can replace the potential that Cruz brings to the table. The disappointing thing about this injury is that it felt like Cruz was heading into that potential.
In response to the move, the Pirates have called up Mark Mathias, who is starting at second base tonight. Ji-Hwan Bae is getting a night off, and Rodolfo Castro is getting the start at shortstop. I’d expect Bae to get regular time between second, short, and center, with Castro moving back and forth between the middle infield spots.
Ke’Bryan Hayes moves up to take Cruz’s spot at the top of the order ahead of Reynolds, McCutchen, and Santana. I like this move, as it protects Hayes in the way that Cruz was protected. It does create a hole around the fifth spot of the order, with Ji-Man Choi dealing with strikeout issues.
That’s where the impact of Cruz might be felt the most: Those 5-7 spots, where guys like Choi, Castro, Jack Suwinski, and Canaan Smith-Njigba have been putting up strikeout rates north of 30%. That group now gets moved up higher in the order, and the Pirates need to rely on someone from that group more often. Castro will likely be that guy, due to his ability to play shortstop.
Essentially, it looks like the Pirates are replacing Cruz with Castro, and replacing Castro on the bench with Mathias. That’s going to negatively impact the team, possibly by a few wins. This is already a team that had most people projecting a high-60s win total. They’ve looked better than that in their first nine games.
I’m reminded of the 2002 Pirates season. They got off to a hot start in April, before a young Aramis Ramirez sprained his ankle in a brawl. The consequences of the injury are quite different, yet surrounded by a team off to an unexpected hot start, and a brawl. I bring this up because the Pirates lost their momentum shortly after Ramirez went down.
That 2002 team didn’t have a Ke’Bryan Hayes caliber player to step in and replace their young star. This will provide an opportunity for Hayes to emerge with the bat. He’s made some of the hardest contact in the game over the last year. His launch angle has led to a high ground ball rate, which isn’t what you want to be productive.
Here’s where the good news comes in:
In his career, Hayes has an average launch angle of 5 degrees. That is ground ball territory. The result has been a 51.3% career ground ball rate, which isn’t a profile conducive to power — the main thing missing from his game.
This year, the launch angle is up to 19 degrees in the young season. While the stats aren’t there, Hayes is getting the ball off the ground consistently. His ground ball rate has plummeted to 35.5% and his fly ball rate has soared to 54.8%. He’s not hitting the ball quite as hard as last year, but he’s still hitting the ball hard.
The most important thing is that Hayes is consistently getting the ball off the ground. That will lead to results better than we’ve seen from him so far.
Right now I feel he might be in a territory where he’s gone too far to the opposite extreme — hitting the ball too high and getting away from line drives completely. When he dials that in to a more productive ratio, he will be an impactful hitter who can replace Cruz in that top spot.
How the Pirates replace Cruz lower in the lineup will require someone else to step up. We’ll see tonight if anyone starts to answer the call.
PIRATES SCOPE
**Tucupita Marcano was named the International League Player of the Week. It makes sense that Mathias got the call over him. Other than tonight’s game, Ji-Hwan Bae seems to already be a regular starter, just without a regular position. Rodolfo Castro seems like the guy who will move into a more regular role. Mark Mathias will essentially get the first shot off the bench, while Marcano continues getting daily time. I think Marcano would be the option if he continues hitting and Castro struggles in a more regular role.
**It was great to see Braxton Ashcraft returning to the mound last night with three shutout innings in Bradenton. Ashcraft struck out five and was sitting 95-97 MPH with his fastball. Ashcraft has missed about two years, but looked sharp in his return. He was taken in the same draft as Mike Burrows, for a look at how much development time his Tommy John cost him. Ashcraft could move quickly to Greensboro if he continues pitching like this.
**If we’re talking about depth, in addition to Marcano staying hit with two hits, the Pirates saw two hits each from Endy Rodriguez and Travis Swaggerty last night. There could be a game this summer where all three are starting in Pittsburgh.
