The recent negotiations that have come to light surrounding the Bryan Reynolds’ contract extension remind me of a popular anecdote from another famous negotiation:
As chronicled in John Helyar’s “Lords of the Realm”, when the Chicago Cubs signed Ryne Sandberg to a contract with a record $7.1 million average annual value—breaking Bobby Bonilla’s mark of $5.8 million—Houston Astros owner John McMullen, angered by the signing, shouted at Cubs chairman at the time, Stanton Cook, “Don’t you know there’s a number between five and seven? It’s six!”
It’s likely the Pittsburgh Pirates tried hitting the numbers between $70 million—the record setting contract signed by Ke’Bryan Hayes at the beginning of last season—and $100 million, but it seems that, at this point, if they want Reynolds to put pen to paper, that wasn’t going to work.
We know that they started at $80 million over six years, as Rob Biertempfel of The Athletic recently reported that the team offered that at the end of last season. Reynolds’ camp countered at $134 million over eight. After apparently no further negotiations, Reynolds’ side grew frustrated and requested the trade before the Winter Meetings.
Despite fielding offers, as they have for the past several seasons, Ben Cherington claimed the request would have little to no impact on their offseason plans and the sides obviously came into Spring Training without this matter resolved.
Reynolds showed up to camp as early as he possibly could and of course stole the show for the first day or two. Despite speaking in his typical unemotional, measured tone, Reynolds was diplomatic yet resolute in the fact that he wanted to be paid what he felt was a fair deal.
“I think I’ve been pretty open over the past few years that my number one would be to sign an extension in Pittsburgh, but I want that to be a fair deal for both sides — not one side or the other,” said Reynolds. “Not a crazy player [deal], not a crazy team deal. That’s always been my number one.”
Team officials showed up to camp, with reporters and fans dissecting every interaction between Reynolds and the likes of owner Bob Nutting and team president Travis Williams.
As camp went along, theatrics were largely cast aside, apart from interviews where Nutting, Williams, and Cherington shared the same sentiment: we love Bryan Reynolds and want him to be a member of the team moving forward.
“If there’s a way we can bridge the gap, we’re working hard to do that. We’re continuing this week to work hard to do it. Bryan’s important. We want to do what’s right for him, for his family and for the team,” Nutting told Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, while Williams echoed similar sentiments to Alex Stumpf of DK Pittsburgh Sports:
“[W]e really like and believe in Bryan Reynolds as a person and as a player. I think he’s a talented individual, talented ball player. We would like to find a way for him to be a part of this organization long-term.”
As a deadline of sorts approached in the form of Opening Day—Reynolds stated a desire to have this all settled by the time the season started—reports began to trickle out in regard to rekindled negotiations. As first pitch approached, it was reported that the sides had agreed on years and dollars, but that a “conceptual issue” was holding up a deal being completed.
This seemed to puzzle many, with wild theories flying around as to what a “conceptual issue” could mean exactly. At first, without total compensation being clear, Stumpf reported Thursday night that Reynolds came down more than the Pirates came up, which is why they were holding firm on whatever this issue was. Friday is when everything started to become much clearer.
Biertempfel was the first to report that the issue was an opt-out in the contract. Not long after, Mackey reported the terms of the new contract were eight years in the range of $106 million. Subsequent reporting by Mackey and Stumpf made it seem that any extension will be tacked onto Reynolds’ current deal, with 7 years and $100 million representing new money.
This information allows for a comparison of exactly how much each side acquiesced to the other. If Reynolds started at 8 years and $134 million—assuming that those reports represented extra years and didn’t include 2023—that means he came down $34 million total and almost $2.5 million per year in annual average value. On the Pirates’ side, that’s an increase of $20 million and an increase in annual average value of roughly $950,000. If you include 2023 in those reports, the difference in which the sides moved is essentially nonexistent, but the average annual value differences are much greater, with Reynolds still giving more—almost $4 million per year, with the Pirates’ offer actually decreasing.
Based on these figures, Stumpf’s report certainly rings true, which is why his camp is insisting on this opt-out. It only took about an hour and a half for the desired year of the opt-out to come to light, which would be after 2026—four years into the contract. Currently, the Pirates have contractual control on Reynolds for the next three years, meaning that this commitment would only be guaranteeing them one extra year of contractual control, which has to be where the hang up is on the team side.
It’s not difficult to see why the team would be hesitant to commit to such an agreement, given that there really is no precedent for opt-outs by the team, or more importantly, in long-term deals for players in arbitration—at least for players with as much contractual control remaining as Reynolds.
According to Spotrac, 49 players have signed extensions while in their arbitration years since 2015, and only six have had any kind of opt-out language in their contract.
Since midnight is only time I can research:
Spotrac has 48 extensions signed during arb years since 2015. Only 6 contained some kind of opt-out language.
Per reports, what Reynolds is asking for would kind of be precedent setting, which one can see why the Pirates would balk: https://t.co/bAYOgaj4oI pic.twitter.com/JcR43Qkecs
— Ethan Hullihen (@EthanHullihen) April 1, 2023
As you can see, Reynolds is the only player with less than four years of service who would have ever received an opt-out, while Giancarlo Stanton is the only player with between four and five years that was guaranteed one, but it came six years into his new deal, ensuring the team four additional years of contractual control. As stated, if the requested conditions are met, Reynolds would be guaranteed to be with the team for only one additional year before having the option to opt-out and test the market if he felt he could do better in free agency.
Players are allowed to ask for whatever they like, and I have no issue with his side requesting it, but it’s not hard to see why the Pirates wouldn’t want to commit to that. Further reports suggested Reynolds is willing to backload the contract, with the idea that he would be cheaper in his guaranteed years and possibly drop out of the more expensive ones.
However, this really doesn’t seem like much of a concession. If Reynolds continues to perform, he plays out the next four seasons—one more than the team already has—opts out and leaves via free agency anyway, with the team not getting as much as a draft pick that they could get if they offered him the qualifying offer at the end of his arbitration years. If he gets injured or doesn’t perform, he is now locked in at a higher salary on the backend while not being as valuable, something the Pirates certainly wouldn’t be crazy about.
The Reynolds camp is essentially asking for a four-year insurance policy in exchange for one extra year of contractual control, with the team essentially taking on all of the risk. Again, it’s totally within their right to ask for it, but it doesn’t mean that the team has to agree.
At that point, anyone can have an opinion on how the two sides could bridge the gap that still exists, from more money and no opt-out, an opt-out later into the deal, or any number of other concessions. With both sides not choosing to offer any additional information over the last day or two, we are left with nothing else than what has been reported thus far.
Personally, if the Reynold’s side sticks to their ask of an early opt-out, I don’t see the deal getting done, despite the fact that deals often don’t come this far and not get done. If anything is going to happen, one would think it would be soon, however.
Otherwise, we’re probably on trade watch again come the deadline, with this seemingly never-ending saga continuing to trudge along to its unknown endpoint.
