In yesterday’s Roundtable, we made our bold predictions for the 2023 Pittsburgh Pirates season.
Spoiler alert: My prediction was a winning season for the 2023 Pirates.
The Pirates haven’t been trying the last few years. It seems obvious to me that they were deliberately tanking. That word gets thrown around a lot in baseball, but what exactly is tanking?
The insinuation is that tanking is a deliberate act to lose games. I think what we’ve seen from the Pirates is that tanking isn’t so much an attempt to lose games, but instead a complete lack of attempt to win games.
There hasn’t been any effort put forth toward a competitive MLB roster the last three seasons. This statement is hard to argue against, while also being difficult to explain.
We’re starting to see the difference in approaches. The Pirates have been more active this offseason in adding to their roster than it seems they’ve been the last three seasons combined. I also don’t think they’re done adding.
The additions haven’t been anything that would make individual splashes across baseball. The Pirates aren’t adding in the way the Mets are adding.
What the Pirates are doing is adding strategically. They’re filling black holes on the roster — positions where they were among the worst in baseball in 2022 — with players who can actually provide positive starting value. Adding a bunch of 1-2 WAR players isn’t exciting, until you realize they’re being added in spots to replace negative-WAR players.
That’s the effect of the tank.
These black hole positions exist because the Pirates didn’t care to fill those spots.
First base and designated hitter are a prime example of this. The Pirates brought in Daniel Vogelbach and brought back Yoshi Tsutsugo for those spots last year. Vogelbach was the best player from the entire 1B/DH group, and rarely played first.
This year, the Pirates brought in Ji-Man Choi and Carlos Santana. Choi looks to be more on the level of Vogelbach, someone who might have a stronger offensive season working almost exclusively at designated hitter. Vogelbach was a bit of a surprise, bouncing back after two replacement level seasons. Choi is coming off two seasons with a 1+ WAR.
The real progress is at first base, where Santana will take over, coming off a 1 WAR season. You might think that’s not much to go on, considering Santana was below replacement level in 2021. By comparison, Tsutsugo was coming off a below-replacement-level season when the Pirates committed to him being their first baseman.
The additions of Choi and Santana don’t look like much on paper. However, it has the Pirates going into this season with two players coming off a 1 WAR season. That’s an upgrade over last year, where the Pirates had two players coming off replacement-level seasons for their 1B/DH plan.
The additions of Choi and Santana are more what you’d expect from a team like the Pirates in 2020-22, without tanking. Those two won’t get you to contender status, but they might progress the team enough to get closer to a winning record.
By comparison, the approach with Tsutsugo last year wasn’t bad, considering where the team was. They weren’t trying at a lot of positions. It made sense to roll the dice on Tsutsugo in that season, hoping he would provide the same type of value that Vogelbach ended up providing.
This year, the Pirates are trying at a lot of positions. Aside from upgrading first base and DH with better looking options heading into the season, they’ve also added two starters, a few younger relievers, the best defensive catcher in the game, and a few depth options to the outfield.
I don’t think the Pirates are done. They seem to care more about the MLB roster this year, and there are some positions where they still have a 2020-22 approach.
The end result here is that the guys like Tsutsugo aren’t the first option, with a valley of despair if that option doesn’t work out. The Pirates have shifted their approach so that the Tsutsugo type players are the depth options.
Eventually, this team will shift to where guys like Choi and Santana are the depth options. That will be after the shift towards “trying to win”, when they make the all important adjustment toward “contending”.
Highlight of the Day
Pirates Prospects Daily
**In our latest Roundtable, we gave our bold predictions for the 2023 season.
**Three Pirates had a big day in Colombia. John Dreker has the latest Pirates winter league updates.
**Missed yesterday? I looked at where else the Pirates should add in the offseason.
Song of the Day
Pirates Prospects Weekly
In our final Roundtable of the year, we made our bold predictions for the 2023 Pittsburgh Pirates season.
Pirates Roundtable: Bold Predictions For the 2023 Pittsburgh Pirates Season
Jeff Reed will have the latest Pirates Discussion at noon on Friday.
