As I indicated last week, after MLB Trade Rumors released their arbitration estimates for 2023, it is now officially time to release my initial payroll estimate for next season.
This basically works on the assumption that the team will do nothing over the offseason—no trades, no extensions, no free agent signings—just go with the status quo and only use in house options.
Of course, this isn’t realistic; however, I feel it’s an appropriate way to start the offseason projection. There’s no way of knowing what moves the team will make, so creating a baseline with all internal players shows basically where the team would be at the absolute minimum and adjusting from there every time a move is made.
Speaking of moves, the team made a few waiver claims this week—see below for more on those—but I intentionally left them out of this projection. This is the absolute starting point, and all moves will adjust this figure from here on out.
Guaranteed Salaries: $16,750,000
Not a lot to speak of here. Both Ke’Bryan Hayes and Bryan Reynolds signed extensions at the start of last season, cementing their salaries for 2023.
Arbitration Salaries: $10,800,000
This total includes five out of the six arbitration eligible players that I touched on last week—for now, only Duane Underwood Jr. was treated as a nontender.
When payroll estimates start to come out nationally, these are what will be reported, as if the team is going to start the season with seven players and a $27,550,000 payroll.
Don’t believe them, you’re smarter than that.
Pre-arbitration Salaries: $14,865,000
The rest of the roster was filled out with minimum salaries to get to 26 spots.
Last season, the Pirates treated minimum salaries a little differently than they have in the past, paying players in certain service buckets the same across the board: $705,000 for less than one year of service, $715,000 for between one and two, and $725,000 for between two and three. For some reason Greg Allen was the only player who didn’t fit this mold at two plus and $800,000. I would love to know why, but I digress.
I used the same practice for 2023, finding how much each level was above the minimum percentage wise and applying that to the new minimum for 2023 ($720,000). I came up with $725,000, $735,000, and $745,000.
I applied this process to 18 of the 20 minimum players on the roster—Chase De Jong and Manny Bañuelos made $875,000 and $800,000 last season, respectively—with Max Kranick opening the season on the 60-day IL.
Minor League Salary: $2,097,660
For the most part, players assigned to the minors make a lower rate than they would otherwise while in the majors.
The minimums for 2023 are $117,400 for players on second contracts or with prior major league service and $58,800 for players on their first contracts. Some players make more depending on what they made the prior season.
This accounts for 13 players, with the final spot left open due to Kranick being off the roster and not selecting a contract to take his place.
2023 Payroll Projection: $44,512,660
I have all my spreadsheets updated and you can follow along here as I update them throughout the offseason.
Offseason Calendar Update
No updates here as of this week
Pirates Payroll Updates
—The Pirates claimed Ali Sánchez and Beau Sulser off waivers this week. The team had one open spot open since the end of the season, but designated José Godoy to make room for the second transaction.
Both players have less than a year of service—.060 for Sánchez and .045 for Sulser—meaning both come with six years of contractual control remaining. However, Sulser has two options remaining, while Sánchez is out. While using his third option this season, Sánchez also completed his fifth full year, meaning he will not qualify for an extra option.
Swapping out Jason Delay for Sánchez in my projection resulted in no difference, but Sulser came with a slightly lower minor league split than Miguel Yajure, lowering the payroll projection by $33,544.
Since he’s been outrighted before, Godoy can elect free agency in lieu of accepting an outright assignment if he clears waivers. That seems like the likely outcome, as he would just become a minor league free agent not long after accepting the assignment anyway.
—For 2023, the payroll estimate stands at $44,479,116 for the Labor Relations Department, while it’s $60,895,783 for CBT purposes.
