Last week, Ethan Hullihen had an early breakdown of the Pirates prospects who are Rule 5 eligible this offseason.
For this week’s Prospect Roundtable, we looked through the list and picked the players who we would protect, along with thoughts on some players on the fringe.
Who would you protect this year? Leave your picks in the comments below.
JOHN DREKER
The Pirates have a lot of prospects who will be eligible for the upcoming Rule 5 draft, but I don’t think there are many “must protect” guys. My list is four deep and three of them are obvious — and two of them could be added before the year if over. Ji-hwan Bae would likely be in the majors right now if he didn’t get hurt. He was the best hitter at Indianapolis at the time. He has a nice approach at the plate and ability to make solid contact, which should help him transition better to the majors than the poor all-around results we have seen from rookies this year. He also adds speed and versatility, with solid defense at second base and the ability to play shortstop and outfield. He would definitely be selected if left unprotected.
Pitcher Mike Burrows and catcher Endy Rodriguez are two of the top prospects in the system right now. While they are both currently outside the top 100 prospects in the game, both of them could end up on that list before they lose their prospect status. Burrows is 1/2 with Quinn Priester for the top pitching prospects in the system, and he is getting plenty of experience at Indianapolis this year, so he should be ready to contribute in Pittsburgh next year. It wouldn’t be a complete surprise to see him and Bae (depending on his return date) get chances next month before the season winds out, similar to the looks we saw from Roansy Contreras and Oneil Cruz.
Rodriguez has been one of the best players in the system this year, and you can make a strong case for him being the best since the start of May. He’s going to get plenty of experience at Altoona this year, setting him up well to possibly see Pittsburgh during the second half of next year if all goes well. Being a catcher makes him more likely to be selected in the Rule 5 draft over some positions, so he can’t (and won’t) be left unprotected.
Those are the simple choices. Looking over the rest of the list, the only player I say they must add is Carlos Jimenez. He hasn’t dominated Low-A this year, so it might seem like a stretch, but I think he has the demeanor on the mound that he wouldn’t be overwhelmed in a bullpen role in the majors for a year before going back to the minors to develop as a starter. He has the potential for three above average pitches and he’s really not far from that upside. I wouldn’t be willing to risk that upside in the Rule 5 draft and have him turn into something special in another organization.
I don’t think anyone else qualifies as a must add, either due to their lower upside, proximity to the majors, or their position not being a spot that gets picked often. Players like Rodolfo Nolasco and Dariel Lopez have the upside factor, but they are on slow paths to the majors due to strikeout issues. For Lopez specifically, his low walks and defense are both concerning issues. He would be almost useless on a big league bench, and then he would need plenty of time to get back to the majors. Teams aren’t looking for potential fourth outfielders or utility players to take a roster spot before they are ready for the majors. Teams have an average of one guy selected every two years and they lose an average of one player every three years, so there’s not a huge risk taken when you leave mid-level prospects unprotected, especially if they are far down the system.
WILBUR MILLER
There’s no question that the Pirates have far more prospects that they could, as opposed to should, protect than they can put on the 40-man roster. Before even starting to ponder the problem, it’s not a bad idea to read the FanGraphs article from a couple weeks ago on roster crunches in the NL, an article that Ethan linked in his piece. The Pirates are covered, of course, but Eric Longenhagen offers a good discussion, especially in the section on the Pirates, of some factors mitigating against trying to jam every possible prospect on the roster.
Even apart from the reasons Longenhagen covers, it makes sense that current personnel trends would make carrying a Rule 5 pick harder. I think the Pirates are probably more extreme in this regard than most teams, but they obsess over having a vast horde of rested bullpen arms at all times. This, in turn, leaves them playing all the time with a very short bench. A team with these fetishes could probably hide a Rule 5 pitcher in the bullpen, although the practice of shuffling relievers back and forth to make sure you’ve got lots and lots of fresh arms might make that hard. It’d be really hard to hide a position player. So, logically, many teams might limit themselves to drafting upper-level prospects who are capable of serving as role players in the majors now. With that in mind, here’s a list:
Easy-Peasy
Ji-Hwan Bae, Endy Rodriguez, Mike Burrows. Duh.
Shouldn’t require a ton of thought
Matt Gorski: A right-handed power hitter who can play first base. He could even force Josh VanMeter off the roster! Well, maybe.
Dariel Lopez: I have some reservations (Lopez has massive error problems, his walk and K rates this year are alarming and his home/road split is Coorsian), but scouts really like his swing. And Longenhagen has him as a “must-add.” And he’s going to play a whole season in High-A at age 20.
Blake Sabol: We’ve seen ample evidence of the sort of farce that a lack of catching depth can lead to. It’d be nice not to have a third go-round with Michael “.150” Perez. Sabol and Abrahan Gutierrez are both Rule 5 eligible, but Sabol is a level closer to the majors, he’s a better hitter, and he also plays the outfield, which would make him much easier to hide on a major league roster.
Cody Bolton: The Pirates’ pitching depth . . . well, “Pirates’ pitching depth” is an oxymoron. Bolton’s having a very good year in AAA, enough that he should get a September callup.
Luis Ortiz: Ortiz is doing the same thing he did last year: After an erratic first half, he’s putting together a strong, late-season stretch. I don’t even think he’d have to be hidden in a major league bullpen. His troubles with left-handed batters could limit him to relief in the end, but considering Ben Cherington’s incompetence in bullpen-building, that’s not a terrible outcome.
And it gets tough
I figure the Pirates should be able to add ten players. That’s a high number, but just look at the current roster and imagine what Chuck Noll would say. Including players on the 60-day IL, the Pirates have 46 players on the 40-man roster, so they’d need to remove 16. I can find 16, easy. Trust me on this.
Still, we all know that Cherington will want to keep some space open so he can add a few sub-replacement veterans, especially some hitters who can help keep alive his streak of having the NL’s worst-hitting team in every year of his tenure. So they’re not going to add ten. Probably not even the eight I named above. But they really should consider adding a couple of these guys:
Jared Triolo: The Pirates love guys who can play every position and Triolo really can, as opposed to just standing at a lot of positions like so many of the team’s utility types under Cherington. His hitting always improves steadily over the course of a season, so there’s a reasonable chance he could end up as a very good utility guy. And he can play major league defense now.
Malcom Nunez: I’m not sure there’s much reason to add a bat-only player who hasn’t shown a consistent ability to hit for power. I just wonder whether Cherington will consider how stupid it looks to give up your best trade piece for a guy who pitched his way out of a starter role and a guy you don’t even see fit to protect from the Rule 5 draft.
J.C. Flowers: He’s having a very good year and he’s improved steadily. His WHIP in July and August is 0.84. And there’s that no-pitching-depth business.
ANTHONY MURPHY
I feel like unless the Pirates are planning on shutting them down before the end of the season, both Cody Bolton and Mike Burrows will make their major league debut at some point, so they will need to be added before the offseason anyways. Depending on when he returns, I’d say the same for Ji-Hwan Bae as well.
Outside of those names, really only three strike me as a must add and that’s Endy Rodriguez, Matt Gorski, and Jared Triolo.
With his quick adjustment to Double-A, as well as his play behind the plate, I think there is a legitimate argument to be had that Rodriguez is the best catching prospect in the system, making him an easy addition here.
Despite missing a chunk of time due to an injury, Gorski showed the power was legit in moving up to Altoona, and is a very good fielder in both center field and even at first base. Plus he is right-handed, something that the Pirates need. The only issue would be the amount of outfielders already on the 40-man, there would probably have to be a name you weren’t expecting to get removed, get taken off to make it work and not continually add to the list.
I’m still not sure just how much Triolo will be able to hit at the major league level, but he is a bonafide stud defensively and his flexibility now reaches to the outfield, as he’s played center field with the Curve. He’s also right-handed, which would pair well with the loads of lefties already fighting for time in the majors.
I think Colin Selby and J.C. Flowers has made a strong case to be considered the best reliever prospects in the system, but I wouldn’t say they are locks, and despite just being added to the system through trade, I’d say the same about Malcom Nunez. They’d probably be among the ‘next up’ group, among others. I’d also have to say you would need to seriously consider Dariel Lopez after the season he’s having. He’d be less likely to be taken, but the Pirates also added Liover Peguero after his season in Greensboro.
TIM WILLIAMS
The obvious guys to me are Endy Rodriguez, Mike Burrows, Ji-Hwan Bae, and Matt Gorski. I think that by the time the season ends, Cody Bolton will be in the majors. Having said that, I don’t think all of the above are obvious. I would only bet on Rodriguez and Burrows.
The challenge here is that the Pirates have a lot of 40-45+ grade prospects to protect, and you could make an argument that Gorski, Bolton, and Bae are in that class — though I would have them leading the next tier.
Gorski had breakout numbers this year, but had his season cut short after a limited amount of success in Altoona. Whether you protect him depends on how much you buy this year’s results. Gorski can play all three outfield spots, and if his hitting is legit, he could be a starter in the big leagues one day.
Bae has impressive numbers this year, and I’m surprised he hasn’t gotten his shot in Pittsburgh with their second base spot open. The fact that he hasn’t been called up yet is my lone skepticism that he will be protected. I would protect him, due to the added value of speed and defense up the middle, to go with the strong contact profile and increases pop in his bat.
The next tier would include Malcom Nunez, Blake Sabol, and Jared Triolo. I’d also throw interesting reliever profiles in here like J.C. Flowers and Luis Ortiz, but my feeling is that right-handed relievers are less at risk of being lost.
Nunez seems like the most likely from this group to be added. The Pirates just added him in a trade for Jose Quintana and Chris Stratton, and you could make an argument he’s the best first base prospect in the upper levels. That’s not a position that gets lost in the Rule 5 draft, and Nunez is limited to his bat-only, which isn’t developed yet for the majors. It seems unlikely that he gets lost.
Sabol has a similar situation, with a catch. No pun intended. He can play outfield and can catch. His defense isn’t strong, but he’s determined to improve his game in that area. If he can catch, he has a lot of value as a guy who is putting up impressive power numbers. If he can’t catch, he can still play left field and has a more advanced bat. He’s a bat-first prospect who is really limited to the corners in the majors at the moment. It would be hard to develop him as a catcher if he’s on an MLB bench.
Triolo hasn’t been hitting as much this year, but is picking up that pace in the second half. He’s also showing impressive defense at third base, and is athletic enough to play all over the field — including shortstop and center field. As far as options to stash him in the majors, Triolo could provide the most potential value off the bench with his flexibility. His bat, and first half struggles the last two years, raises the most concern.
The wild cards for me are Carlos Jimenez and Dariel Lopez. Both are highly projectable guys, and some of the better prospects in the lowest levels. At this point, they are more projection than results. Jimenez has amazing spin rates and a swing and miss changeup. He’s 19, and in Single-A, struggling with control. He’s one of my favorite lower level pitching sleepers, but his control would seemingly be prohibitive of making that jump. That said, a team could take him, stash him, and then develop him in his age 21-23 seasons in the minors, before needing him in the majors for good.
Lopez is in a similar situation. He’s 20-years-old, and one of the youngest in High-A. He’s been inconsistent this year, but the bat has really picked up. His defense has been poor, with a lot of errors. He’s showing improvements, and as a prospect he stands out for his progress throughout the year at a young age. As far as a Rule 5 prospect, he seems unlikely to make the jump to the majors.
I’m not sure either wild card situation is probable enough for the Pirates to protect their guys.
Rodriguez and Burrows are the must-protect, and I’d add Bae, Gorski, and Bolton to preserve the upper level depth at the least.
