Mitch Keller and Roansy Contreras are the best long-term starting pitchers the Pittsburgh Pirates have in the upper levels.
Mike Burrows and Quinn Priester are the best starting pitching prospects the Pirates have in the upper levels.
For this edition of Prospect Roundtable, we’re going to assume that all four of those pitchers reach their upsides, or at least give the Pirates a solid #1-4 in their rotation. That’s a huge assumption, considering the attrition rates of pitching prospects. I told everyone this week to assume away on those four players, and pick the starting pitcher who could round out the MLB rotation.
The catch? You can only pick a pitcher from Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, or Altoona.
JOHN DREKER: JT Brubaker
I really like this question because there’s not an obvious choice. Unfortunately, that’s not really a good thing for the immediate future. I see bullpen roles for a lot of the upper level starters right now. I think the Keller, Contreras, Burrows and Priester rotation has a chance to be very good, but the best fifth starter short-term probably isn’t in the system yet. It’s probably some veteran like Tyler Anderson or Jose Quintana.
That’s not the question though, so if I’m going with a current Pirates/Indianapolis/Altoona pitcher for that final spot, I’m going with JT Brubaker because he’s put up solid back-of-the-rotation stats since the beginning of May this year and has three years of control left beyond 2022. He’s going to be in his prime years and we could see his peak results during that time. The guy can miss bats, and his 4.06 ERA/3.60 FIP in 93 innings this year since May 1st is a nice sample size of solid work. That ERA number is just below the league average ERA right now, and that’s good production from your fifth starter. I think that could keep him around long enough that he’s eventually being replaced by someone lower than Double-A right now, without them getting rushed to the majors.
I believe Kyle Nicolas has the best chance of remaining as a starter in the majors among the current upper level starters, but his control worries me a bit. The walks are a little too high and he’s only gone more than five innings once this year. He’s probably on a slower path to the majors than Priester, so even if he improves his control and pitch efficiency enough to make it as a quality starter, there’s going to be a time before Nicolas reaches that point where you need a fifth starter and I see Brubaker filling that role. There’s no question that Brubaker has a 2023 rotation spot, so that rotation could happen by mid-season next year.
WILBUR MILLER: JT Brubaker
This is not an easy one. The new front office has done a poor job so far of developing pitchers, so there isn’t much upper-level depth to choose from. You’d like to think somebody would have stepped forward out of, say, Carmen Mlodzinski, Nick Garcia, Kyle Nicolas or Omar Cruz, but it’s not happening. And the Pirates have succeeded in undeveloping Miguel Yajure to the point where he should be a candidate to lose his 40-man roster spot.
I can’t see either Bryse Wilson or Zach Thompson being a long-term fixture. Cheap teams like the Pirates always seem to get fixated on marginal fifth-starter types because . . . they’re cheap. And they lend themselves readily to magical thinking along the lines of, If he just gets more consistent with something and something . . . . The Pirates need to aim higher than this.
So by process of elimination we’re down to J.T. Brubaker, Cody Bolton and Luis Ortiz. Bolton is having a good year, especially considering the two-year layoff. His numbers are very good across the board except for a 5.3 BB/9, which isn’t especially alarming after the layoff. The ERA of 2.72 isn’t a BABIP mirage. One measure that isn’t sold is xFIP, which has him at 4.98. That’s probably because of an incredibly low HR/FB of 1.8%, which represents one gopher ball in 56.1 IP. That’s hardly a bad thing; opponents are slugging just .265 against Bolton, so he doesn’t seem to be allowing much hard contact. The biggest reservation with him is the low workload the Pirates have him on. I don’t know whether that’s concern for the knee injury that cost him a year, or for his stamina generally, or what.
Ortiz has outstanding stuff and can be dominant at times. In fact, in most games he’ll have at least some stretches where he dominates. He’s got the opposite problem from Bolton: His ERA is 4.79 and his xFIP is 3.93. The difference results from a serious gopher ball problem, much of it with left-handed batters. He’s probably going to have to find a solution or move to the bullpen.
That leaves Brubaker, which isn’t so bad. Early last year he looked like he was establishing himself as at least a mid-rotation starter, but then it started raining gopher balls when he pitched. He’s had ups and downs again this year, but mostly he’s been similar to last year except for the gopher ball thing. He’s cut that exactly in half. His xFIP has been very consistent over hit three seasons: 4.14 – 4.00 – 3.96. (That last number doesn’t include his great outing against Boston on Thursday.) If he can avoid whatever was causing the longballs last year, he’s already shown that he’s a legitimate major league starter, more so than Keller at this point in time. Of course, he’ll be arbitration-eligible this off-season, so Bob Nutting will have to pay him. (Gasp!!) But that’s a whole other issue.
ANTHONY MURPHY: JT Brubaker
Looking at the upper levels, I think the Pirates have plenty of options for players that could easily fit the ‘multi-inning’ relief role in a way that Wil Crowe and Dillon Peters did throughout the season but not much for legitimate options for the rotation.
I think the best option in the system to fill out the future rotation already resides on the major league staff, and that’s JT Brubaker.
He’s continuing to establish himself as a legitimate starting pitcher in the majors, as he should once again up his career high in innings and starts this season. He leads the Pirates in strikeouts, and has limited the home run issue that plagued him last season. Having so many options come up capable of throwing multiple innings could only help out Brubaker long-term. They can pair an arm with him to help limit his workload and keep him fresh throughout the season.
Brubaker could be an option to move to the bullpen, but with upwards of five pitches, he has the starter repertoire and is learning more and more how to use it. His veteran presence and experience would be a perfect fit at the backend of the rotation behind the rest of the future staff.
Outside of him, Kyle Nicolas may be the next go-to option, although his continued control issues may push him into the bullpen, where he could really ramp up his electric fastball even more.
TIM WILLIAMS: JT Brubaker
We’ve done it.
It took four months, and almost 40 Roundtable features, but we finally have a consensus opinion.
Typically we all submit our reports without seeing anyone else. As the editor of this article, I deleted mine, since all of my points were made. I’ll just add that I’ve always liked how JT Brubaker takes it to another level in high-leverage situations. He’s a guy who can put up top of the rotation starts from time to time, which is the type of periodic elite value you want from a guy filling out your rotation.
Instead of talking more about why Brubaker is my pick, I’ll point out the guys who could contend with him. Kyle Nicolas is the biggest name on my list. Cody Bolton would be the other guy who could challenge Brubaker. In each case, you need the pitcher to develop better control in the minors. You can dream on either pitcher, but I think you can also still dream on Brubaker a bit. He’s clearly leading that pack.
This is a concerning issue when you consider how many starting candidates Ben Cherington has added via trade. Out of the four young pitchers we’re including as a fixture in this scenario, only one was acquired by Cherington. As Wilbur noted above, the Pirates added upper level guys like Bryse Wilson, Miguel Yajure, and Wil Crowe. The fact that Brubaker still stands above all of these options isn’t a good sign. Right now, Cherington has mostly just added rotation depth. I will say that I like Zach Thompson more than most, but I’d still take Brubaker over him.
Cherington has been building through the lowest levels of the system, but this is where things get concerning for the overall state of the future pitching staff. If you go down a level to High-A Greensboro, the still aren’t many starting prospects standing out. The best prospect at the level is Jared Jones, who has worse control issues than Nicolas a level higher. There is a lot of reliever risk with Jones.
The promise with the future pitching staff currently rests in Single-A. That rotation is led by Bubba Chandler, Anthony Solometo, Carlos Jimenez, and other young starters. This entire group is mostly projection, and I wouldn’t dare put one of them ahead of Brubaker, unless it’s to tacitly admit that the Pirates will probably eventually replace Brubaker with one of these guys.
This team needs pitching. They have Quinn Priester and Mike Burrows in the upper levels, and Mitch Keller and Roansy Contreras in the majors. Not all of those guys will work out. In fact, it wouldn’t be a surprise if only two of them were better than Brubaker.
That’s where the biggest problem comes up. Brubaker looks great as a back of the rotation starter. That scenario seems like a dream for the Pirates right now. The reality seems like Brubaker is going to be one of the top three starters in the rotation going forward, unless the Pirates add some outside help.
THIS WEEKEND ON PIRATES PROSPECTS
Prospect Roundtable: Starting Pitchers in Pittsburgh
Valentin Linarez: Rapid Progression Helping Bradenton Rotation Down The Stretch
Nick Mears looks to rebound during tough season
