With Tuesday’s loss to the Chicago Cubs, the Pittsburgh Pirates fall to 4th place in the NL Central.
The game looked like it was going to get out of hand quickly in the bottom of the first when the Cubs used four consecutive hits to push across three runs with only one out. Bryse Wilson was able to then tighten it up and only allow two more hits and a walk the rest of the way. Wilson completed six innings while only giving up the three earned runs.
Wilson has actually been able to complete six or more innings in three of his last four starts while allowing eleven runs, only eight of which have been earned. The recurring theme as of late — No, not the “Pirates offense wastes another strong starting pitching effort” theme — he seems to be seeing far better results from an uptick in a sinker-slider combination, complimented with a significant drop in four-seam fastballs.
Bryse Wilson’s sinker usage didn’t really have any trends earlier in the season. It was anywhere from as low as 12.5% and as high as 37.3%. In his last four starts it hasn’t dropped below 40.4%. Likewise, his slider usage was all over with as low as 1.7% and up to 29.1%, but in his last three starts it hasn’t dropped below 28%.
Four-Seam fastball? Three. He threw three total in this last start against the Cubs.
Over the last month — not including yesterday since Fangraphs isn’t updated as I write this — the Pirates are tied for 9th with the Cleveland Guardians in starter fWAR (2.1) and ranked 15th in Starter ERA (4.02).
The elephant in the room is that Jose Quintana is the probable starter for Friday’s game against the Philadelphia Phillies. Key word is “probable” with the looming deadline only a week away.
+ postsRaised in Cranberry Twp, PA, Jeff attended Kent State University and worked in Cleveland and Pittsburgh, before moving to New Orleans in September of 2012. His background is as an Engineering Designer, but he has always had a near unhealthy passion for Pittsburgh sports. Hockey and Baseball are his 1A and 1B, combined with his mathematical background, it's led to Jeff's desire in diving into analytics. Jeff is known as Bucs'N'Pucks in the comments, and began writing for Pirates Prospects in 2022 after contributing so many useful bits of information in the comment section.
In an MLB.com article titled “7 Trades Contenders Need to Make” was this nugget:
Proposed deal: Acquire OF Bryan Reynolds and RHP David Bednar from Pirates for RHP Daniel Espino (Guardians’ No. 1 prospect), INF Tyler Freeman (No. 6), RHP Xzavion Curry (No. 20), OF Will Brennan (No. 28) and OF Oscar Gonzalez
Which may sound like something of interest, until you go to the Trade Simulator and notice it’s just a wee bit tilted toward Cleveland… 80.4 value to Pirates, 105.8 value to Guardians. I don’t think I’d consider that to be “blown away”.
I wouldn’t trade Reynolds alone for that. Not even close. Espino’s missed most of the year with a knee injury and Freeman just duplicates about four guys we already have in the upper minors. Bae is better.
A reference made in a July 8th article to Cleveland taking their time with Espino.
“McKenzie was scheduled to debut with the Ducks on Opening Day, but a forearm injury delayed his introduction with the Ducks until June 7.
The club didn’t rush McKenzie and he finished the season with a 7-4 record, a 2.68 ERA and 87 strikeouts in 16 starts.”
As for Freeman, I agree. I’d prefer he’s swapped out for someone else.
I’m actually a fan of Brennan. I like the kid.
Only reason I’d still consider it is the reports were that the Guardians were just taking it slow with Espino. Also I trust their development more than I would Marlins and someone like Eury Perez, even if he’s stayed healthy this season
At least Espino’s injury wasn’t arm related. I’d want two big prospects for Reynolds: Espino and Valera, something like that…maybe a sweetener too. Cleveland would never go for it; but that’s the kinda deal I’d want.
By trade simulator you mean baseball trade values the sight? It’s a fun site but I’m highly skeptical of their model. They really thought Adam Frazier had a ton of trade value because he was a legit .300 hitter. And he wasn’t even close. So yeah…healthy amount of salt with them.
I was thinking the same thing, thats more of a reynolds only offer not both him and bednar. Funny because the guardians reddit was saying what an overpay it was and that reynolds isnt even that much of an upgrade for them
There goes that. Bae to IL
What happened to Bae? Did Van Meter stop in Toledo on the way back to the Burgh and whack him?
Cruz two games away from leaving the prospect list.
Probably 3, unless Shelty has a change of heart and bats near him top of lineup
Pity the fool
https://triblive.com/sports/on-the-job-training-helps-pirates-oneil-cruz-learn-what-it-takes-to-play-in-the-majors/
So for me, it’s 70-30 Pirates signing their #1 pick…Tik Toc…
Only way Johnson isn’t signed is if he develops a Rocker type injury between now and Monday.
Speaking of that, feel bad for Druw Jones. The latest in a long line of Dbacks high picks to get injured. Specifically shoulder injuries. If I was the Dbacks GM, I’d probably higher a Catholic Priest to poor some holy water over next year’s pick.
I saw that too. If I am the #1 pick for the Dbacks in 2023, I would be sweating bullets just waiting to get hurt.
If am available for the 2023 draft and one of my shoulders starts to ache for no reason, I would know that the Dbacks are gonna take me with their 1st round pick 🙂
Someone doesn’t pay attention to draft signings for MLB.
Has the official signing been announced…No I don’t think so and until it’s done it ain’t done…
Please keep your snark to yourself…
I’d bet, and assuming you’re giving those odds I’ll take all of it, that there’s already a deal in place and they’re just waiting to finalize the numbers. It’ll happen.
99-1 for me, with the 1 being that the physical showed something completely unexpected. It’s probably be even less than 1, something comparable to the Pirates’ playoff chances. In fact, I expect it to happen today–what better way to come off of a disappointing series in Chicago to build some excitement about the big weekend series?
I just hope they don’t let old man Roethlisberger and his “(For current players) Now, it’s about me and this, that and the other” lead the welcome party on yinzer night Friday. With Ben gone, I’m more interested and excited about the Steelers than I’ve been in years (I’m sure that’s not a popular sentiment, and sorry for going off the rails here).
You’re not alone, brother. It was (past) time. (Hopping back on the rails)
I hope the Steelers give Bubba Chandler a tryout in a few years
that would motivate me to watch football again after a 15 year hiatus
lol I agree with your rails statement. Everything Big Ben has said is just peak irony.
Of things to be concerned about, I put this at the bottom of the list. The very bottom.
Sorry, I think worrying about Big Ben speaking at the yinzer event is at the bottom of the list.
The deal might just be TJ gets whatever overslot money is left so he is good with waiting until next Monday and get what is there. Won’t hurt him if he waits a few more days to sign.
Pirates FO and Termarr probably both getting their ducks in order, before setting up signing day complete with all the hoopla in bringing him to Pittsburgh for signing.
When is that yinzerpalooza event I’ve seen advertised?
I think it’s Friday or Saturday.
It is Friday. I just love this intersweb thingy 🙂
His signing will be announced that day.
MLBTR says the White Sox and Yankees have interest in Quintana. We seem to know the Yankees system well (hey–tie-in with the Escotto article)–do we go back to the well again?
Yankees always have a slew of arms. Maybe a couple of 40’s?
Q for Volpe. Done!
Add in dominguez or no deal! I would actually really love to find a way to pry waldichuk from them but i doubt that will happen short of reynolds or bednar going their way
Saw something tying the Braves to Gamel with Duvall going down for season. But idk if it’s just someone throwing it out there or have actual truth to it.
Only complication is Duvall was platooning with Rosario (lefty), so I would think the Braves would be more likely to want a right handed hitter to fill the Duvall role. Doesn’t mean they wouldn’t potentially want Gamel to replace Rosario who has struggled but I would doubt that. I do hope he lands on a team with a real chance to advance deep.
Good point. I guess the hope would be that since Gamel hasn’t shown much of a split over his career, that he’d replace both (Gamel does have a pretty pronounced split this year, though–hitting RHP slightly better than for his career but doing much worse against LHP).
Like Kyle Muller
I hope they find a good landing place for Gamel (I don’t like the Braves but it would be exciting for Gamel, I’m sure). Being a Duvall replacement makes a lot of sense. If the Pirates want to re-sign him as a 4th OF in the offseason, fine. But we shouldn’t pass the chance to get a prospect and, more importantly, free up OF space for the rest of the season by holding on to him.
I was on that train, but I see it as unlikely unless they decide to part ways with Allen. Allen has 3 more years of control, so I think at this point an OF spot or 4th OF at the least is his. Plays all 3 spots and is a switch hitter.
What are his options like?
Yes, if Allen shows he belongs he’s a much better choice than Gamel. Or our 4th OF comes from Swaggerty, CSN, Mitchell, Fraizer, …
The city of Pittsburgh should refuse entry to any FO personnel or coaching staff who can’t prove that they’ve been vaccinated against the stoopid.
Speaking of vaccinations, do we have a series in toronto?
I want nothing more than the Blue Jays to make the WS, especially as the Home team.
This would be fantastic, even a few playoff series could make a significant impact. Imagine blue jays vs cards and the cards are down both arenado and goldschmidt for half the series
Of course you made me look… The Jays migrate south to Pittsburgh Sept 2-4
I am split on this, as a fan I kind of want to know who I should lose some respect for on the team, but also the whole ignorance is bliss thing is kinda nice too
I’m on the ignorance is bliss side–I was relieved when I saw that we host Toronto 🙂
Ditto on the Ignorance is bliss side 🙂
Lose for Crews Watch (hat tip to the author here):
Stumbling out of the All Star break losing four of five has not only dumped Pittsburgh into fourth in the Central, but also moved them closer to the bottom five in MLB. In fact, Wednesday wins by Detroit over San Diego and Kansas City over LAA would leave the Pirates tied with Detroit ahead of only Cincinnati, Oakland, and Washington. A Cincinnati win over Miami would leave the Bucs only 1.5 up on the Reds.
Pirates currently have 6th worst team in MLB = 7.5% chance of 1st overall pick next year.
Our odds would close to double if we were the 4th worst team = 13.25%
source: https://www.tankathon.com/mlb
When do they do the lottery? After the WS?
I bet the kid has no ragrets!
Not even a letter!