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Wednesday, December 7, 2022

Pirates Discussion: Division Battle in Milwaukee

For a moment, it looked like the Pittsburgh Pirates might take a winning streak into Milwaukee this weekend. Alas, it was not meant to be.

We’re officially past the halfway point, and at the point of the season where it seems to drag on.

Fortunately, we’re a little over a week away from the draft. For those looking forward to it. 

There is also just under four weeks until the trade deadline, August 2nd. 

There will likely be a lot of roster movement in the coming days and weeks. Roansy Contreras was optioned on Thursday. Kevin Newman and Jake Marisnick are likely to join the team soon. Greg Allen finally started a rehab assignment. This all after Ben Gamel and Yoshi Tsutsugo recently rejoined the team. 

PIRATES @ BREWERS

Time: 8:10 PM EST

Pirates Starter: JT Brubaker, (2-7, 4.28)

Brewers Starter: Aaron Ashby (1-6, 4.60)

Brubaker Notes: JT is coming off his second victory of the year. He’ll be facing the Brewers for his second start in a row, and looking to build off that victory where he went six innings, giving up four earned runs while striking out six batters. 

JT Brubaker Discusses the Short Memory Needed in the Majors

LINEUPS:

Pirates

Brewers

I don’t quite understand the top of the tweet by the Brewers “back in the best uni in the game”. What makes them think they would be wearing Pirates uniforms this game? That’s not what happens when you play another team. Someone needs to fire their social media person.

+ posts

Raised in Cranberry Twp, PA, Jeff attended Kent State University and worked in Cleveland and Pittsburgh, before moving to New Orleans in September of 2012. His background is as an Engineering Designer, but he has always had a near unhealthy passion for Pittsburgh sports. Hockey and Baseball are his 1A and 1B, combined with his mathematical background, it's led to Jeff's desire in diving into analytics. Jeff is known as Bucs'N'Pucks in the comments, and began writing for Pirates Prospects in 2022 after contributing so many useful bits of information in the comment section.

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AdministrativeSky236

Damn what a way to go out on that one

tedwins

It sure was mate😥… i turned it right off, what happened, was Newman sent, blew pas stop sign or tried to be tricky? Would have been fun to see Hayes get a shot…oh well, no biggie, maybe a good thing come draft 2023🤔

PiratePrimate

Newman had a chance to go out in a blaze of glory. He could have gone All Big Ten and tried to run over the catcher but he decided he’d spent enough time this year on the IL

skliesen

WHAT KIND OF A SEND WAS THAT? OMG!!!

PiratePrimate

Pirate Ball!

skliesen

It’s mind blowing how often bad teams make inexplicably bad plays that cause a game to be lost. The worst of it is it’s not the rookies at fault, it’s the vets and coaches who are undermining the team’s opportunity to win.

PirateRican21

Cora is saying Wowwwww, even I wouldn’t sent him there.

ArkyWags

Wut…was that?

PirateRican21

Hayes on deck!?!?!?!?!!!

1979andCounting

Huh? Wtf Rabelo

PirateRican21

Volgy!

ArkyWags

Take him deep, fat arms.

PirateRican21

Newman with a bomb between 2nd and RF!

PirateRican21

Suwinski didn’t swing at one pitch.

1979andCounting

That was an E-4. I think MLB should take over the scoring of games. The home town scorer is just too biased.

PirateRican21

.

861EFD96-7E91-41F9-8577-CD7257BF70BF.jpeg
skliesen

Tsutsugo gets a middle middle mistake pitch and he pops it straight up. Just awful.

PiratePrimate

Have to pinch hit Gamel for Chavis here

PirateRican21

Bring back banuelos!

PirateRican21

Newman three at bats, none have left the infield.

PiratePrimate

So he’s back to form. I was worried those swing changes might hurt his performance.

PirateRican21

1979andCounting

Did I miss a roster move? I thought Peter’s was going ACTIVE like 3 days ago?

John Dreker

He pitched 2.1 innings for Indianapolis last night

1979andCounting

He was with the big club a few days ago in Pittsburgh……thought his activation was imminent. Strange roster moves by this FO

John Dreker

He was back with the team after his Altoona outing for a checkup to see how he was doing, but then they reassigned him to Indianapolis. Underwood did the same thing during his rehab

PirateRican21

Banuelos in in a 1 run game????

skliesen

Let’s hope you have given him the ole reverse jinx.

PirateRican21

1979andCounting

Good thing he was working on his grip and tunnelling position on those throws over to Chavis. Paid off.

jon6er

If you want to get a taste of the robo umps the pitch that was called strike three on Wong in the bottom of the fifth is what they are seeing in the minors. It just caught the very outside edge of the black on the frontside of the dish. I must admit that was a great shot from the cameras Apple tv has covering the game but in the minors those are called strikes all the time by the robo umps.

1979andCounting

1979 mentioned in trivia answer! Shout out to Appletv+!!

Cobra

Three really exciting things I’m looking forward to in next 10 days:
1 – MLB draft
2 – Bubba in Bradenton. Is it possible he is our best prospect?
3 – reading the comments on this message board when Marisnick replaces Castillo, not Van Meter

PiratePrimate

Not even the Pirates are that stupid. Marisnick is not coming back to Pittsburgh. I refuse to believe that.

skliesen

I refuse to believe anything but that. I’ll be shocked if he’s DFA’d. Even though anyone with a brain would say Castillo is far better than Marisnick.

PiratePrimate

I give them credit for at least not being imbeciles. But calling a GM who brings Marisnick back up an imbecile is an insult to imbeciles.

jon6er

I fear #3 is probably true.

mikeschalke

I’ve had it with Brubaker and Keller. Two guys with good stuff who time and time again just don’t challenge hitters. They just drive me nuts!

Last edited 4 months ago by mikeschalke
jon6er

I’d agree with you 100% if I knew for a fact that Brubaker and Keller were calling their own games. But these pitchers and catchers are most likely pitching on a game plan created by the genius that is the manager and his pitching staff.

mikeschalke

I’m sure the game plan doesn”t call for walking guys, Shelton and his coaches don’t throw the ball.

jon6er

What does that have to do with throwing pitches to the opposing players strengths. If a guy walks he ain’t hitting the ball!

mikeschalke

Sorry walking guys is rarely a good thing!

jon6er

No kidding.

mikeschalke

Ok even if that were true{ It’s not} the lack of control is on the pitcher.

jon6er

What’s not true?

mikeschalke

That games are 100% scripted.

jon6er

I don’t know exactly what you think pitchers having a game plan on how they are going to pitch to opposing teams is 100% scripted means but on a staff like this probably the only guy who can really shake a catcher off in a crucial situation might be Quintana. Anyway have a goodnight but you really should think twice if you want this staff managing an actual good pitching staff!

jon6er

You can’t always see it because of the tv coverage but the catcher’s probably have whiplash from looking at the dugout so many times a game, lol.

PirateRican21

The way we pitch lefties is baffling. I think even my wife who seldom watches baseball know that most lefties like the ball low and in, but for some reason that’s were we pitch them. No wonder pitchers improve after leaving Pittsburgh. New pitching coach is like, that’s stupid don’t do that.

PiratePrimate

An 0-2 Triple after your team has just handed you the lead. A four-pitch walk and an 0-2 Triple. That pisses me off.

jon6er

Who comes up this game plan for pitchers to pitch to the opposing players strength’s. Wong has been blasting that same pitch just like Matt Carpenter for as long as I’ve been watching. It must be the new Pirate philosophy!

Last edited 4 months ago by jon6er
b mcferren

I think I’d like to see what Miguel Andujar can do as our right handed first baseman

PirateRican21

Lefty killer! Go Diego.

PiratePrimate

That is the definition of dropping the head of the bat on the ball. Beautiful!!!

PiratePrimate

Castillo just reaches down and flicks it out!

tom2125

These announcers really aren’t better than the Pirates announcers…. I’m surprised.

PirateRican21

You know, first time I heard them I wasn’t a fan, they talk too much and try to jam way too much info, but now I’m not as bother.

tom2125

I agree, the amount of info is insane. They aren’t bad, just different. I guess I’m not used to different baseball announcers.

I loved how the guy was trying to say Ichro had to make adjustments to mlb… he hit like .350 his first year and started in the all star game his first years in the league. Lol.

PirateRican21

But, he did struggle that first spring training!

skliesen

Chavis, who kills LHP, tries to execute a sac bunt from the 3 hole. Why?

1979andCounting

I’m to the point where it’s now a between- the -ears issue for Chavis. He just cannot hit RH’s. One of the more bizarre splits and it’s compounding AB after AB.

jon6er

I’m stunned by the stupidity whether he did it on his own or Shelton called it.

skliesen

Crappy 0-2 pitch by Bru to Huira. How about a high inside fastball out of the zone to change his eye level instead of going to slider for 4th straight pitch.

PiratePrimate

What a sorry 0-2 pitch. Roll it over right over the plate. Jesus

PirateRican21

Got out of it with one run, not bad.

Last edited 4 months ago by PirateRican21
PiratePrimate

Great recovery

PiratePrimate

Worried about Suwinski. He’s hit a rough patch and things can snowball.

PirateRican21

For those who don’t have Apple TV, there was a shot of Cruz and Cutch shooting the shit, Cruz face is lit up like a true fan!

bucsws2014

The highest BA in either starting lineup tonight is .258 from the Brew’s catcher.

That’s a sad statement on MLB 2022.

hoffmark83

Pitch underhand.

PiratePrimate

Lower the mound!

PirateRican21

5 strikes and you are out! Or eliminate shifting. I know some say it won’t help much, but it will help some!

Wilbur Miller

Get better hitters?

PirateRican21

You are too radical! That is just plain old nonsense!

1979andCounting

Last 3 games we have 4, 7 and 5 hits. Two of those games versus a bad pitching staff.
It’s just too hard to score runs with that kind of production. Stringing together 3 hits in a row, or even in an inning……..it’s just a foreign concept with this offense.

NMR

Maybe I’m reading the wrong outlets, but isn’t it pretty remarkable how much offense is down across the league?

Ben Gamel finished 2021 with a .328 wOBA, which was good for a 105 wRC+.

Jack Suwinski currently holds a .330 wOBA, and that’s earned him a 113 wRC+.

Jack’s line matches up almost exactly to Pedro in the good times!

Tim Williams

Didn’t they add a humidor to every park?

RAS TN

Well, if they were smoking cigars it would make a difference…

robertkasperski

Do the teams know how to properly operate them?

Wilbur Miller

Nickels thought it used too much electricity, so he just wrapped the balls in a blanket and left them out in the sun.

SBRO

And a different shape at that. The median slash stats for non-pitchers in 2014 were .255/.318/.390 for a .708 OPS. This season it’s .242/.315/.392 for a .707 OPS. More walks, fewer hits, more power on contact.

Wilbur Miller

The biggest issue I have with trading Bednar comes in thinking about the return. In a good trade for Bednar, you’d get . . . another Bednar. But we already have Bednar, so . . . ?

SBRO

If this team has any hope to contend in the next 2 years, it’s going to need to ADD to the pen, not subtract from it. Minimum 4 arms you can trust. They have one and a half, depending on whether Crowe has it or Yerry is on the roster. The last 4 weeks have shown how thin the pen really is, with multiple meltdowns from just about every arm, including Bednar. You trade Bednar, you make that mountain that much steeper to climb.

Bucs Pen last 30.png
NMR

Huntington traded his closer the winter before the club’s best run of success in three decades.

SBRO

This is not even remotely the same situation as 2012.

That 2012 pen was middle of the pack in all key categories. 15th in K%, 14th in BB%, 11th in ERA and 14th in WHIP. Hanrahan actually had a negative WAR, so he actually brought those rankings down; the pen was led by Grilli, Lincoln and Watson, and Grilli and Watson contributed substantially to the 2013 team. They had Wilson and Morris at Indy and Hughes at Altoona on the fast track – all 3 pitched significant innings in ’13.

Compare to this year’s pen. 19th in K%, 26th in BB%, 29th in ERA and 27th in FIP. Bednar is a one-man show. He’s responsible for 1.1 of the pen’s 1.5 total wins. The depth at Indy is Yerry and…who else? Who’s coming up from Indy to soak up the middle to late innings?

If this team had the kind of depth on hand that the 2012 team had, I’d be more inclined to support trading Bednar, but it doesn’t. So unless the return for Bednar is 3 more Bednars, I’m not on board with it.

ArkyWags

A good trade he’d turn into another Bednar, yeah. But I think the price for relievers like this with his years of control makes him more likely to be dealt than BR. And relievers just burn out so often; I keep looking at Bednar and I see Hanrahan. And that’s scary.

If Cleveland offered say Gavin Williams (who I think pretty easily would be the among the best pitching prospects they’d have) as the centerpiece of a deal for Bednar, I’d have a tough time saying no.

NMR

Your baked-in assumption is that Bednar will be Bednar for another five years, and we know how exceptionally rare that is.

This type of situation would of course be resolved if they simply had the audacity to try winning baseball games.

Unfortunately that is not the reality we’re in.

I think it’s pretty instructive that Huntington’s best work was arguably in roster management of his high-leverage relievers, and the only one he failed to turn into better value than the pitcher himself was the one he held onto too long.

NMR

Thinking about this in the context of the rebuild, you’re just maximizing the return on Joe Musgrove.

I don’t think this club will ever have any choice but to be successful finding low-value relievers and getting them to excel. To hold tight to their first when he could be used to draw assets much more difficult to find feels like they’re already regressing.

Roster churn is inevitable in the modern game, no more so than with relievers.

SouthernBuc

I don’t want to trade Bednar and really think 12 months from now is a better gauge. However, I also worry about assuming a good reliever now will stay that way for 2 -3 more years (which is realistically where we may REALLY need him). For now I stay in the camp of requesting an overpay… if somebody is willing then I find it hard not to say yes. I just don’t see a team paying that price. If there was a near the majors SP who looks like a top of rotation (I’ll say a solid 2) in the trade, that would be hard to turn down.

MD78

I share your concern and only trade Bednar for a package that could exceed Bednar. An interesting one could be Bednar to the Phillies for Mick Abel and Griff McGarry. Abel is a recent 1st round RHP rated #56 in MLB Pipeline. McGarry is a power RHP that projects best as a leverage reliever who could be a future Bednar. Abel is in high A, McGarry is in AA. Baseball trade values had it as Bednar as a 33 surplus value and the Phillie package as a 31. Dombrowski is one of the few GM’s left that gets old school in trading prospects. We may even get another upside lottery ticket arm in such a deal.

PirateRican21

I’m not on the trade bednar club. He has looked very shaky lately, but that’s not a reason to trade him.

hoptown

I’d demand a top 100 prospect. Those can be more valuable than a RP. If I don’t get that, I don’t move him. If someone offered me their version of Priester or Burrows, I’d do it.

hoptown

What I’d look for in a trade. First some definitions:
A level prospect – top 100 in MLB (eg, Q Priester)
B level prospect – outside top 100 but likely in a team’s top 10 (eg, Jared Jones)
C level prospect – likely in a team’s 11-30 (eg, Njigba/Triolo)
D level prospect – low level lottery ticket (eg, Juan Jerez)
.
B Reynolds – A, B, & C
D Bednar – A & C.
J Quintana – B & B
D Vogelbach – B
W Crowe – B
K Newman – C
J Marisnick – D
Y Tsutsugo – D
.
If I don’t get these returns I just keep the players (with the exception of Quintana who has no more years of control)

SouthernBuc

I like this general approach and is usually how I frame questions of the MLB Trade Rumors chat people. I’ll add my opinion and maybe a comment or two using your framework.

Reynolds: A,B,B or A,A,C – top 100 is a big range .. so I want a top 30.
Bednar: Seems about right…
Quintana: Seems about right…
Vogelbach: C at best – I hope you are right but I would even take a D or even DFA to clear playing time. – he is gone at the end of the year.
Crowe: B,D: Your’s seems about right, but greedily I want a tad more.
Newman: Seems about right…
Marisnack: D or DFA – don’t need him blocking PT for younger players.
Tsutsugo: D or DFA – don’t need him blocking PT for younger players.

Additions:

Gamels: C, C
Stratton: C, D

Last edited 4 months ago by SouthernBuc
SouthernBuc

Good catch, and that does change the decision making some. I still think I would DFA and assume they can pick him back up or some equivalent if they ant that for 2023. However, if he is a good presence and they feel a fit for 2023 then I would not so easily just dump him.

AdministrativeSky236

Yeah this is definitely more what i would want for reynolds, honestly maybe even AAB

hoptown

What I would do. 7/8 edition.
1) When Newman is ready, DFA J Van Meter (do it already!!)
2) When Peters is ready, DFA Banuelos
3) Call up B Wilson and option E Stout to AAA.
4) When Marisnick is ready, option B Madris to AAA. Might as well try to get something for Marisnick. If I can’t move him by 7/31, then I DFA him.
5) I’m not worried about G Allen yet, deal with him later.
6) Add JH Bae as soon as a roster spot opens up thru trade or injury.

docdon385

Bringing back all of these veterans seems like regression to me but maybe at least a couple of them might be worth some return in a trade. It’s difficult to imagine any team being willing to give up much of anything for any of them but perhaps. It’ll really be a time to start worrying if Yoshi, Gamel, VanMeter, etc. are still around and playing after the trade deadline though.

Cobra

If you paid money for a sweater that is now looking quite ugly, do you (A) still wear the sweater, hoping there is a remote chance someone else will be impressed with said sweater & — against all odds — actually give you something in return for it?; or (B) donate the sweater to Goodwill knowing that you have a dozen other newer sweaters that look & fit as good or likely better than your old one.

If you’re Bob Nutting , you’re rocking that Christmas sweater until the threads are worn off baby !

jon6er

That’s what concerns me is the roster after the deadline and at that point they will be out of legitimate excuses for carrying veterans like those you mentioned. I’m soon going to have to develop the fans version of JT’s short memory.

NMR

They quite literally ran out of players last year.

Having a minimum amount of playable depth not to be a laughingstock seems relevant.

SBRO

Not to be a laughingstock? That train left the station a few 16-0, 19-2 and 14-5 games ago.

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