New Mock Draft and Updated Draft Prospects Rankings

MLB Pipeline has two new draft articles up, looking at the latest mock draft from Jim Callis and their latest update to their draft prospects list. The 2022 MLB draft is just under seven weeks away and the Pittsburgh Pirates have the fourth overall pick.

In the latest mock draft, Callis has the Pirates selecting Cal Poly shortstop Brooks Lee. He was the featured player in our latest Draft Prospect Watch article. He has been connected to the Pirates numerous times this year, either in mock drafts, or getting ranked as the fourth best player in this draft class.

Callis has Jackson Holliday going first overall to the Baltimore Orioles. He’s followed by Druw Jones going second and Kevin Parada going third. The latter is a college catcher from Georgia Tech, who consistently ranks high in this class. His name has never been attached to the Pirates, who took catcher Henry Davis with the first overall pick last year. You can find info on Jones and Holliday, both sons of All-Star players, in the Draft Prospect Watch link above.

Callis has the Pirates passing on Elijah Green (fifth to the Washington Nationals) and Termarr Johnson (sixth to the Miami Marlins). They are followed by Cam Collier going seventh to the Chicago Cubs. All three of those players have been covered here (see that link above).

As for their updated top 200 rankings, Pipeline expanded from 150 spots to 200. The top six on that list were all mentioned above, in order they are Jones, Green, Holliday, Johnson, Lee and Parada, with Termarr Johnson matching up to the draft spot of the Pirates. The top nine players on their list are all hitters.

I am also legally obligated by my family to mention in every draft rankings article that Monmouth left-handed pitcher Trey Dombroski ranks 110th on this list, putting him around the fourth round range. He is a cousin of many of my cousins.

PROSPECT WATCH

DAILY VIDEO RUNDOWN

PIRATES DISCUSSION

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capirate

I’ve always been partial to taking high school players as long as they have a high ceiling. I keep dreaming of the Pirates getting someone who could legitimately make the majors at age 20 or 21.

emjayinTN

It’s not the player that pulls those strings, and with the increasing ages of HS players, I feel safe saying that making the majors at age 20 or 21 will never happen for someone in a Pirate Uni.

ArkyWags

I think really the only possibility is a Latin American player. Signs two years earlier, blows up.

CTBucco

No thank you on Lee. Looking at his results against P5 conference teams, he has done very little. He’s compiled great numbers against teams from 2nd tier conferences, but not the better pitchers. Will Craig was largely the same. If we do go with a college bat, it better be Parada or Berry.

But it increasingly looks like one of Green or Johnson will be available. I’m less sold on Holliday, but I’d be okay with him. I’m assuming Jones will be gone. For me, Jones or Green are must takes. After that, I’m okay with any of Johnson, Holliday, Parada or Berry.

Expect P’s with the comp pick and 2nd rounder.

DangerWilRobnsn

I just don’t see them taking a SS in the first round. While it’s true they’re considered the best athletes, they have such a glut of middle infield guys already moving though the system. If they can get their hands on someone with a consistent 70+ hit/power tool who can play a corner outfield spot (and not just hide there), they need to take him.

HeisenbergWW

Keith Law, who also mocked Lee to the Pirates, says there is little chance he sticks at SS and will most likely settle in at 3B or maybe 2B.

Bucs'N'Pucks (Jeff Reed)

I agree, but also disagree. If it was Parada’s bat at SS we were talking about, 100% take him (which, I’m still down for Parada). In the case of Brooks Lee, I do lean towards I’m not sure if I believe the bat is special enough (albeit, I personally haven’t looked into him).

Cause all that being said, the Rays have no problem taking SS after SS after SS, and moving them around. They already have Franco and Walls in the majors, and then another 5 SS’s (or at least were at one point) in their Top 10, per BA.

Which makes me wonder, as I did last season, if they’d let us take at least Walls off their hands for a pitcher lol

Wilbur Miller

I’d just take the best hitter. I don’t care if his only position is wicketkeeper.

roibert.kasperski

I say that the Bucs should shock the baseball world and take Trey Dombroski with the #4 pick as long as someone close to John D. promises to video him passing out when the pick is announced and posts it here for us  😂  😂  😂 

Bucs'N'Pucks (Jeff Reed)

Way I see it, which might not follow the generic “best player available” or how a lot of analysts like to look at GM’s “drafting history”, I think the trend will follow more in-line with how team’s prospect list and current MLB standing are.

Such as I’ve said before that I see the Pirates going prep this year after the college bat past 2 years. Pirates, Dbacks, O’s, Marlins and even Twins are all top heavy with upper level “near ready” or recent debuted prospects, so this is the year to pick a prep kid who may be a little longer development. Rangers, Nationals, Cubs, Rockies, and probably even Royals don’t have particularly strong systems and will likely want the more advanced, “quicker to majors”, selections.

I think this is more for Top 5 picks, cause after that, team’s directions can change depending on who they’ve personally been looking at.

TNBucs

This is what I’m expecting too, that they’ll use the draft to build depth in the lower levels.

However, it wouldn’t surprise me to see them take an all-in approach with the talent at the upper levels and plan to build extra depth at every position in preparation for the inevitable disappointment or injury. Plus, I think we’re going to need to trade from prospect depth for starting pitching if we’re going to be contending by ’24.

So while I expect them to take Green, Johnson, or Collier; I can see the case for Parada or Lee to provide depth at a key position. If Parada or Lee is the most talented player left at 4, then “worst” case is that you’d include that player as a headliner in a reverse of the Musgrove or Taillon deal.

Bucs'N'Pucks (Jeff Reed)

I was thinking of that as well, in terms of “trade asset” down the road. And I still think a prep kid would be a better choice. Whether a matter of the kid playing well lets you decide to trade other players instead you may not have originally, or a prep kid struggling is afforded some more leniency in their struggles than a college kid struggling that’s presumed to be “advanced”

Last edited 1 month ago by Bucs'N'Pucks (Jeff Reed)
TNBucs

A prep kid would work as well, at least for a Cherington-type GM (Head, Scott, CSN, …) and it’s a little easier on the fanbase to trade away a kid far from the majors (Baz still doesn’t hurt as much as Glasnow ;)). So that would take us back to best player available and then worry about any redundancy later.

steve_zielinski

The Pirates can draft Lee or Barry and then move either to 1B or the OF. It’s hitters that are needed. Having a SS play 1st is not the worst idea.

NMR

I don’t know if Lee or Barry are that guy but I sure agree with the logic.

jeffw3000

This is what I have been saying. I think sometimes the so called experts, look too much at past history. Sometimes that works, but sometimes they draft a certain way because of need and the way the draft falls. I see the Pirates going prep, because they do not need a quick fix like they did previously. They have a lot of depth now, so we can wait on someone Like Green or Temarr Johnson. We have to worry about far off future. One of the problems with NH, was he always seemed to worry about the next 2 to 3 years, and not 5-6 years down the road. That worked well at first, but left us with no relief down the road.

hoptown

I don’t see the Pirates taking a college hitter this year. They already have a glut of hitting prospects logjammed in AA and AAA. I see them taking a HS guy and atarting the next wave of prospects.

AdministrativeSky236

Man adding a johnson or green to solometo, chandler, white, bishop, etc. in last years draft is quite the starting wave of talent to splash down in 3-4 years after the current wave is established

jeffw3000

My sentiments exactly, which is why I like Green, Holliday or Johnson if there, or Andruw Jones, though I doubt he would be there then.

agent00

it sure would be nice if holliday dropped to 4…..doesn’t seem likely now though

NMR

I honestly think the prospecting industry has developed a blind spot for risers. They’ve begun to lack patience and discipline.

Three months ago we’d have been pissing ourselves with joy over the possibility of both Green and Johnson falling to #4 , but now Holiday is the shiny toy.

agent00

i get what you’re saying. but holliday seems to be a legit prospect. his added strength this year got him to tap into his tools more. before the season, BA pegged him as a 1/2 round talent.

this isn’t really a hudson head pop up type prospect.

plus i’m just a fan of acquiring former players’ kids  😁 

AdministrativeSky236

My hope is that with all of the high end arms getting hurt this summer we find a way to get a surplus of pitching value in competitive balance A and our second round pick. I know that injuries are scary, but feels like it could be a way to get high end talent we otherwise might not be in position to grab.

skliesen

I’m not going to stop beating the Dylan Lesko drum. Although I’d be shocked if they passed on Green if he’s available at #4 .

Last edited 1 month ago by skliesen
jeffw3000

I’d be disappointed if Green and Johnson were there and they passed on both. I could live with either at #4 , but would not be happy if they passed on both.

ArkyWags

Definitely not on board taken an already broken arm in the top 10. Cool with it any time after that though.

Last edited 1 month ago by ArkyWags
NMR

This implies a lower level of risk with a Top 10 pick, right? How confident are we that we can actually predict such things?

Think the GM’s who picked Zunino, Zimmer, Almora, Appel, Heabey, Dahl, Russel, Cecchini, Hawkins, etc are saying to themselves “thank GOD we were smart and didn’t select Lucas Giuolito, he’s broken”?

ArkyWags

No they’re not. But I’m just off prep guys in the top five, personally. And the injury makes it an easier call for me. I’d rather have the bat. Especially with some of the options they’re definitely going to have.

I get that you think the pendulum has swung too far in the other direction for prep arms. But taking him and getting him to a 2-2.5m discount is not only risky cause he’s a prep arm already injured, they also have to hope their targets to drop with their picks. It can work, but you yourself said that strategy needs a lot to go right in terms of development for that draft to work out.

jeffw3000

I feel the same. After #10 I could live with Lesko, but in the top 10 you have to go with one of the bats. If not for the surgery I would not mind taking Lesko at #4 , but after the surgery it is too risky to take him at #4 .

skliesen

If Pirates are going to win a WS title, they will need difference makers. If Lesko returns to form after his surgery, he will be a difference maker in the rotation. A combination of a plus fastball and the best change up ever thrown by a HS Pitcher is just too good to pass up on if they can get him for a couple million $ below slot.

ArkyWags

So the potential prep bats they could take aren’t difference makers? Johnson, Green, etc?

AdministrativeSky236

If we were a few picks later I would be all aboard the lesko train. I love him as a prospect but especially with his injury it feels like the quality of bats around our pick will be impossible to pass up. Jones is my dream scenario but holliday or green would be welcome at 4 as well

TNBucs

I don’t think this should factor into their decision much, but I wonder if how Castillo, Castro, Bae, and especially Gonzales play over the next 6-7 weeks could have an influence on whether they select Lee. He seems like an excellent plan b to Gonzales or one of the others working out as the 2B of the future. But if a couple of those players perform particularly well over the next few weeks, I’d be more inclined to draft Parada (our depth at C is greatly improved but it’s still not as deep as middle infield nor is it as easy to find quality catchers via free agency or trades) or one of the high schoolers.

I know you don’t draft for need, but I apply that more to high school picks than advanced college picks–if one of a guy’s selling points is he’s close to being MLB ready, then why wouldn’t you consider where he’d be in the depth chart?

jeffw3000

I do not think there is any chance they would take Parada. Parada would be ready about the same time as Davis. They could always move one to 1B, or move one to DH, but that would still be a PR nightmare. Drafting Parada would seem like they do not have confidence in Davis as a catcher. I do not see them doing that. It is pretty likely 2 of Jones, Johnson, Holliday, Green. They should definitely go with one of those.

TNBucs

There are some questions about Davis’s ability to be a quality defender but in any case, I liked Tim’s proposal last year that you’d almost have a rotation of catchers like you do a rotation of pitchers to keep your catchers healthy and fresh. And speaking of health, if Davis keeps drawing HBP’s we’re going to need a quality catcher to pair with him. With the DH and questions at 1B, we can carry 2-3 elite catchers without a problem.

TNBucs

Interesting that a year ago Green was considered a generational talent sure to be picked first and then over the offseason Jones became the generational talent sure to be picked first. Now it seems like there are 6-7 talented players that to some degree could be selected anywhere in the top 7 (though Jones is unlikely to fall below second) and it might come down to bonus demands.

Last edited 1 month ago by TNBucs
John Fluharty

Speaking of bonus demands, I wonder if we might grab one of these top seven guys who’d sign for slightly under slot in order to grab a few extra tough to sign guys like we did this year.

Bucs'N'Pucks (Jeff Reed)

This after Kumar Rocker was the unquestioned 1-1 the year(s) prior

John Fluharty

IIRC some outlets had him there early on but he dropped fairly early.

ArkyWags

He was never the consensus 1-1 that I remember.

NMR

“Unquestioned” only if you follow shitty prospect outlets.

AdministrativeSky236

Thoughts on Rocker if he’s available for our second round pick?

b mcferren

Rocker at the 4th pick sounds good to me

Stephen B

Oh hell yes. If he’s somehow available, I don’t see how they don’t grab him. That’s damn good value for the 36th pick. As BNP writes above, the only hesitation I would have is Boras would absolutely demand early first round money, and that would mean below-slot seniors in those 2nd/3rd/4th rounds.

PirateRican21

Not a lot of leverage, he could be drafted in the mid second and get offer slot, he’s basically in the same spot as a senior in college.

Bucs'N'Pucks (Jeff Reed)

Ehhhh, idk how I feel about him. His control and sporadic velocity worried me, and then the supposed arm issues. Throw in Boras and what comes with him, along with he’s yet to throw yet after just signing with an Indy ball team. But, maybe with their 2nd round pick, which would be their third pick, I might be ok with it as a risk/reward pick. I’d be more interested in Jud Fabian with their comp or 2nd rd pick.

Wilbur Miller

If it wasn’t for Borass, it’d be an interesting gamble. But Borass has a history of overreaching with guys in this position and it’s always a disaster.

TNBucs

He’d be in a tough situation this year, though. Could they really risk turning down even 2nd-round money and have another year in independent ball?

Wilbur Miller

Borass did that with Matt Harrington. Kid ended up with squat.

Bucs'N'Pucks (Jeff Reed)

Carter Stewart, who went to Japan, is kind of trending that way. Trying to see if he’s hurt, cause he hasn’t pitched this year yet.

Wilbur Miller

I’m fine with taking a chance on guys like that, but if Borass is the agent, no. (I don’t know who Stewart’s agent is.). Borass has no conception of cutting his losses. If a kid was once considered top five or whatever, he still expects top five money, no matter what’s happened in the meantime.

Bucs'N'Pucks (Jeff Reed)

I’ll give you one guess on who Stewart’s agent is lol

Wilbur Miller

Well, he’s screwed.

Bucs'N'Pucks (Jeff Reed)

Depends how much Boras has boosted his ego. Could convince him to take a similar route as Carter Stewart and play foreign ball till he’s eligible to be a FA

roibert.kasperski

He could opt for foreign ball if Boras convinces him that he would make more money there than what he would make outside Round 1 here. There is also the risk that the foreign league balks at his medicals like the Mets did and it goes public that he did not sign due to an issue. That scenario would harm Boras as much as Rocker as Boras has gone on record claiming there is nothing wrong with Rocker. An Indy Team would take the risk for the potential reward of butts in seats and not care about his medicals as the would pitch him till he couldn’t.

Last edited 1 month ago by roibert.kasperski
jedeweese

Homestretch…

roibert.kasperski

Used to be….still a long wait til 7/17 now……..I hate wating…………………

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