For the past 4-5 years, I have tried to guess who the Pittsburgh Pirates would send to the Arizona Fall League each year. Most years I would get 2-3 correct, until last year when six of my guesses were selected for the AFL. I didn’t expect to match that total again, but I figured I could come close by using the same method for my guesses. Then the AFL decided to change the rules up this year, and basically anyone is eligible to play. They also moved the league up two weeks, which I am not of a fan of, because the AFL is a great content filler for early November when not much else is going on in baseball. I’m still go to give it my best guesses, but the rules of thumb I used before are no longer in play, so who knows how this will work out.
The AFL had rules before, but they were loosely followed, and more like suggestions. My own rules for guessing were to choose players who were in Double-A, were either top prospects or missed some time during the season, and usually no foreign players who had winter leagues in their home country. That last one was an AFL rule, but there have been players who went against it, such as Alen Hanson and Elias Diaz. They took away that rule this year, so that could open the league up for more players.
Here are my guesses, using the typical three position players/four pitchers grouping that the Pirates usually send.
Oneil Cruz – Cruz fits perfect this year, though I’m not sure I would have guessed him in the past. He’s at the age where he should see some action with his Dominican winter team this year. That could still happen, but with the AFL starting on September 18th and winter ball start around the second week of October, he could see AFL time and then go right into winter ball. He fills the “missed time” requirement due to his fractured foot and some time missed earlier in the year with lower body discomfort. He also fits the prospect mold.
Jared Oliva – I’m sticking with Double-A players and guys who missed some time. Oliva was only out for three weeks in early April, but that counts as missed time. He also went to school in Arizona so there’s that connection to the AFL, and he fits the prospect mold. It’s also easy to forget with his recent stretch that he was struggling for most of this season, so more upper level at-bats would help him out.
Ke’Bryan Hayes – I’m putting this here with an asterisk and placing a backup guess. If Hayes gets called up to the majors, then he’s obviously not going to the AFL. I’d like to think he gets called up, but with the way he has hit this season, it would probably be best to get him regular fall at-bats, then bring him up next year as soon as he looks ready. So I’m putting him in, but I know there’s a 50/50 chance he gets called up this year. Hayes fits the missed time and prospect mold that you look for with an AFL pick.
If Hayes gets called up, then I think the Pirates go with a catcher, and they still could if they send eight players, but seven is the usual total. Jason Delay and Arden Pabst have been splitting catching duties all year with Altoona, while Deon Stafford missed time early in the year, so none of them have played a lot. Stafford has actually played more games than the other two because he’s a full-time catcher for Bradenton, plus he needs the defensive work behind the plate. Catching full-time can be brutal in Florida this time of year and going to Arizona in September won’t be much better, so I’m ruling him out and going with Pabst. I think he goes for the at-bats, because he has outstanding defense, but the bat isn’t there this year. If he can pick up his hitting, then he’s going to make the big leagues on his defense. Delay wouldn’t be a bad guess either because he’s slightly behind Pabst in games caught and could use some extra at-bats.
So for position players, it’s Cruz, Oliva and Hayes/Pabst
The pitching side is a bit tougher because the Pirates will send starters there as relievers, so it’s hard to rule anyone out based on their innings. An AFL reliever will pitch about 12 innings total, so that’s not a huge workload increase. In the past, it has usually been two starters going and two relievers, but my guesses are a little different.
Blake Cederlind – This is the guess I feel the most confident about. He has only pitched 46.2 innings this year, so that works out well. Cederlind (pictured above) has hit 102 MPH this year, and could use some extra work to tighten up his off-speed pitches and his control. He’s Rule 5 eligible this off-season so that’s a good reason to get extra looks.
Cody Ponce – Acquired from the Brewers for Jordan Lyles, he has pitched just 41.1 innings this season. I’m sure the Pirates would like to get more looks at him. With the amount of innings he has pitched in the past, he could actually start in the AFL to get some extra frames. He’s the starter for Altoona tonight, although it’s unlikely he can go deep into the outing at this point, since he isn’t stretched out.
Gavin Wallace – Wallace has pitched extremely well since moving into the starting role, but limited early season innings means that he could throw more this year without a problem. I think between the success and extra innings, he goes to the AFL and possibly works on his off-speed stuff trying to get more strikeouts. He’s a candidate to add a pitch or do something new with an existing pitch.
Shea Murray – Murray can hit 99 MPH and has a crazy slider that would be a plus-plus pitch if he had better control. He has been somewhat limited in relief this year, so he could use the work, but I see huge upside here with improved control, so some extra innings could really help him out. He has made a huge leap from last year, but he was also really bad last year. Nick Mears wouldn’t be a bad choice either, but he’s a little more advanced than Murray, so while they could both use the innings, I’m going with the bigger upside player who could use the work more.
It’s not the most exciting group of names, but you have two of the biggest arms in the system with Cederlind and Murray, as well as a mid-range prospect in Ponce, and then Wallace has pitched great lately and should move up to Altoona next year, or even late this year for 1-2 starts.
One wild card here is Blake Weiman, who is currently on his third injured list trip. If he’s healthy, then he would be an obvious for the player who needs the AFL to get in extra work. He’s a top relief prospect and has only thrown 31 innings this season, plus he’s a candidate to join the Pirates at some point next year.
PLAYOFF PUSH
Indianapolis has 24 games left. They trail by nine games in the division and 8.5 games in the wild card.
Altoona has 23 games left. They trail by 12 in the division.
Bradenton has 23 games left. They trail by 7.5 games in the division.
Greensboro has 24 games left. They trail by four in the division and one game for the second best record, which could possibly get them a playoff spot.
Morgantown has 23 games left. They trail by one game in the division and one game in the wild card spot.
Bristol has 18 games left. They trail by four in the division and they’re two out of the second playoff spot.
GCL Pirates have 19 games left. They trail by 11.5 in the division.
DSL Pirates1 have been eliminated from the playoffs.
DSL Pirates2 have clinched a playoff spot
TODAY’S SCHEDULE
Today’s Starter and Notes: The Pittsburgh Pirates lost 6-2 on Friday night to the St Louis Cardinals. They will send out Joe Musgrove for his 24th start of the season tonight. He lasted just 3.1 innings in his last start, allowing eight runs on ten hits against the New York Mets. Musgrove faced the Cardinals on July 25th and allowed five runs over five innings. He also pitched against them on July 15th and served up five runs in 4.2 innings. His first outing versus St Louis was his worst, surrendering eight runs in three innings on May 9th. The Cardinals will counter with veteran right-hander Adam Wainwright, who has a 4.50 ERA in 114 innings, with 110 strikeouts and a 1.41 WHIP. He is coming off of an outing against the Oakland A’s in which he gave up three runs over 5.1 innings. Wainwright faced the Pirates on July 24th and gave up four runs in five innings. He also opposed them on May 10th and allowed just one run in seven innings. If you go way back to April 1st, he debuted against them with four runs over four innings.
The minor league schedule includes Cody Ponce making his first start since joining the Pirates in the Jordan Lyles trade. He has made two relief appearances with Altoona, debuting with two runs in one inning, followed by two shutout innings five days ago. Bradenton is sending out Osvaldo Bido for his third start in High-A. He debuted with two runs over seven innings, then threw 7.1 innings without an earned run. Noe Toribio will go for Greensboro, his third start since being promoted from Morgantown. After allowing four runs over six innings in his Low-A debut, he rebounded with two runs over five frames last time out.
Indianapolis will have Alex McRae on the mound, making his 18th start. He lasted just 3.1 innings in his last start, being removed early due to seven walks. Bristol is sending out Jose Maldonado, who gave up one run over five innings in his last start, after three straight rough outings resulted in 14 runs over nine total innings. Morgantown has Bear Bellomy making his third pro start. He tossed five shutout innings six days ago.
MLB: Pittsburgh (48-67) @ Cardinals (59-55) 7:15 PM
Probable starter: Joe Musgrove (4.69 ERA, 109:29 SO/BB, 124.2 IP)
AAA: Indianapolis (57-59) @ Durham (66-51) 6:35 PM (season preview)
Probable starter: Alex McRae (4.97 ERA, 80:34 SO/BB, 92.1 IP)
AA: Altoona (59-58) vs Reading (69-48) 6:00 PM (season preview)
Probable starter: Cody Ponce (6.00 ERA, 4:1 SO/BB, 3.0 IP)
High-A: Bradenton (63-52) vs Dunedin (66-48) 6:30 PM (season preview)
Probable starter: Osvaldo Bido (1.26 ERA, 6:5 SO/BB, 14.1 IP)
Low-A: Greensboro (69-46) vs Asheville (55-62) 7:00 PM (season preview)
Probable starter: Noe Toribio (4.91 ERA, 7:3 SO/BB, 11.0 IP)
Short-Season A: Morgantown (29-23) vs Williamsport (20-34) 7:05 PM (season preview)
Probable starter: Bear Bellomy (2.70 ERA, 11:3 SO/BB, 13.1 IP)
Rookie: Bristol (23-26) vs Kingsport (24-26) 6:30 PM (season preview)
Probable starter: Jose Maldonado (5.87 ERA, 29:18 SO/BB, 30.2 IP)
GCL: Pirates (12-25) vs Orioles (23-13) 10:00 AM (season preview)
DSL: Pirates1 (27-32) vs Rays2 (37-20) 10:30 AM (season preview)
DSL: Pirates2 (48-11) vs Mariners (26-33) 10:30 AM (season preview)
HIGHLIGHTS
From Altoona on Thursday, Oneil Cruz made his one hit count, driving in what would be the game-winning run in a 2-0 victory.
The big man keeps hitting.
Cody Bolton threw five shutout innings
5⃣ scoreless in the
Clay Holmes followed with two scoreless frames
After a lead-off triple in the seventh, Clay Holmes fans three to preserve a 1-0 lead. pic.twitter.com/XDU1didtNg
— Altoona Curve (@AltoonaCurve) August 9, 2019
Beau Sulser, the pitcher, with a pinch-hit RBI double
BEAU SULSER HIT A PINCH-HIT, RBI DOUBLE
The EL All-Star relief PITCHER is now 3-for-7 with a homer and 4⃣ RBIs this year #PitchersWhoRake
⬇️7⃣ Curve 2, Richmond 0 pic.twitter.com/afqczj5wWc
— Altoona Curve (@AltoonaCurve) August 9, 2019
RECENT TRANSACTIONS
8/9: Braeden Ogle activated from Bradenton injured list.
8/9: Pirates release Eduardo Vera. Cam Vieaux sent to Altoona.
8/9: Kyle Mottice activated from Greensboro injured list. Victor Ngoepe sent to Morgantown.
8/8 Robbie Glendinning placed on Altoona injured list. Bralin Jackson activated from Altoona injured list.
8/8: Max Kranick placed on Bradenton injured list.
8/7: Pirates sign Luis Joseph.
8/7: Eric Wood activated from temporary inactive list.
8/6: Steven Brault activated from injured list. Richard Rodriguez activated from paternity list. Dario Agrazal and Yefry Ramirez optioned to Indianapolis.
8/6: Tom Koehler assigned to GCL Pirates on rehab
8/6: Pirates release Joseivin Medina
8/5: Pirates sign Omar Alonzo and Juan Fuentes.
8/5: Yoyner Fajardo promoted to Bristol. Fernando Villegas promoted to Morgantown.
8/5: Clay Holmes assigned to Altoona on rehab.
8/4: Blake Weiman placed on Indianapolis injured list.
8/4: Pirates release Jung Ho Kang
8/3: Pirates claim Yacksel Rios.
8/3: Richard Rodriguez placed on paternity list. Pirates recall Parker Markel.
8/2: Pirates Designate Jung-Ho Kang for assignment. Recall Pablo Reyes. Activate Erik Gonzalez from injured list.
8/2: Nick Mears activated from Bradenton injured list. Ryan Valdes placed on Bradenton injured list.
8/1: Blake Weiman activated from Indianapolis injured list.
8/1: Austin Coley placed on Altoona injured list.
7/31: Pirates trade Corey Dickerson to Phillies for a player to be named later and international bonus slot money.
7/30: Oneil Cruz promoted to Altoona. Jerrick Suiter activated from injured list. Bralin Jackson placed on injured list. Gift Ngoepe released.
7/30: Pirates recall Geoff Hartlieb and Yefry Ramirez. Montana DuRapau and Alex McRae optioned to Indianapolis.
7/30: Elvis Escobar assigned to Morgantown on rehab.
7/30: Daniel Amaral activated from Bradenton injured list.
THIS DATE IN PIRATES HISTORY
Four former Pittsburgh Pirates players born on this date, plus a trade of note. On this date in 1971, the Pirates made a deal to strengthen their bullpen, acquiring veteran Bob Miller from the Padres for outfielder Johnny Jeter and pitcher Ed Acosta. Miller had a 1.29 ERA in 16 appearances during the regular season for the Pirates, then threw 7.2 innings during the World Series. He remained with the Pirates through the 1972 season.
Players born on this date include:
Bob Porterfield, 1958-59 pitcher. He had a 3.27 ERA in 87.2 innings in 1958, then he was released early in the 1959 campaign.
Elmer Jacobs, 1916-18 pitcher. Won 220 games in the minors, but he finished with a 50-81 Major League record. Had a 2.81 ERA in 227.1 innings during the 1917 season.
Pat Kilhullen, catcher that played his only big league game on June 10,1914. Played the last two innings of a one-sided game and got robbed of a hit by Hall of Fame shortstop Rabbit Maranville in his only at-bat.
Truck Eagan, shortstop for the 1901 Pirates. Was a terrific power hitter, with 100+ homers in the minors during an era when very few Major League hitters reached that career mark. Played four games for Pirates.
