The Pirates finished the month of April on Monday with a record of 17-12 and were one-half game out of first place in the NL Central Division at the close of the first full calendar page of MLB play for 2018.
It’s a useful time to do some looking back. Tim Williams took a look on Tuesday at what’s gone right with the Pirates to get out to such a hot start and how they have just as much potential for it to continue.
The fact that the Pirates are off to such a strong start is a surprise to many, particularly those that decried the Pirates lack of moves in the offseason. The Pirates didn’t sign an MLB free agent and at best broke even in three major-league trades. Furthermore, the fact that it was a historic offseason in many ways, with many players still unsigned into Spring Training, heightened that disparity.
Of course, just because the Pirates are playing well doesn’t mean that general manager Neal Huntington pulled all the right strings. So, here’s a “buy or sell” look at some of the players the Pirates could have signed in the offseason and if they would or would not have been an upgrade through one month.
RHP Alex Cobb, Baltimore Orioles, 4 yrs, $57 million
Cobb was one the last free agents to sign this spring, inking his deal with Baltimore just a week before opening day. He went down to the minors for an abbreviated spring training and has gotten torched in his four starts to the tune of a 9.68 ERA. His 5.10 xFIP suggests he won’t be quite that bad the rest of the way, but that number would only be an improvement upon Steven Brault of the six players that have started a game for the Pirates so far.
Verdict: SELL. Cobb’s contract has plenty of time built-in for him to turn things around and his track record suggests he eventually will, but at his price, the last-place Orioles probably already wish they hadn’t signed him.
RHP Trevor Cahill, Oakland A’s, 1 year, $1.5 million
Cahilll, a versatile veteran with experience both as a starter and in relief, was also a late signing and also started his 2018 out in the minors to make up for a lack of Spring Trining time, but his results have been much better thus far. In three starts with Oakland, the has a 3.00 ERA and a 3.11 xFIP. The latter number would be second amongst Pirates starters behind only Jameson Taillon.
Verdict: BUY. Cahill made sense from the beginning for the Pirates as a No. 5 starter, because his experience in the bullpen would make it an easy switch if he was eventually passed by a younger starter. His one-year deal and cheap price tag also would’ve made him a good bridge to pitchers like Nick Kingham and Mitch Keller.
OF Carlos Gonzalez, Colorado Rockies, 1 year, $5 million
The Pirates trade for Corey Dickerson made acquiring an outfielder seem unnecessary, but for the sake of completeness, Gonzalez wouldn’t have helped the Bucs or much of anyone with his numbers so far. He has a 64 wRC+ and two defensive runs saved in right field. Gregory Polanco, even though he’s been scuffling, has a 95 wRC+, but he does have negative-5 defensive runs saved.
Verdict: SELL. Even though Gonzalez will probably hit better than he has and is a better defender than Polanco, his salary for a one-year deal doesn’t make much sense. If the Pirates want to upgrade their outfield, Austin Meadows should be ready for an audition in another month or so.
RHP Jake Arrieta, Philadelphia Phillies, 3 years, $75 million
That’s a lot of hooch for the 32-year-old Arrieta, but he’s been worth the money so far, with a 3.49 ERA and 3.97 xFIP. Unlike the others above, Arrieta signed in time to get some spring work in and has made five starts for the Phillies.
Verdict: INCOMPLETE. Arrieta is one pace to be about a 3.0-WAR player, which would more than justify his salary this season, but his addition would have taken the Pirates payroll above where it was in 2017, something that I’m not sure Huntington was able to do, so his signing might have had to be combined with an unknown subtraction from somewhere else. Furthermore, this contract has the ability to look pretty bad pretty quickly if Arrieta doesn’t age well.
INF Neil Walker, New York Yankees, 1 year, $4 million
Walker, a native son of Pittsburgh, was rumored to be on the Pirates list this offseason, but it’s the understanding of this reporter that things never even got close between the two parties. Walker’s split from Pittsburgh was less than amicable and the Pirates didn’t seem interested in paying top dollar for aging veterans.
Verdict: SELL. So far, that seems to have been the right call, with Walker hitting .165/.212/.190. If he keeps that pace up for much longer, he’s going to end up on waivers.
RHP Lance Lynn, Minnesota Twins, 1 year, $12 million
Of the pitchers on the market, Lynn seemed to be the closest thing to a sure thing. He had three straight 3.0-WAR or higher seasons from 2014 to 2016 and was still pretty good in 2017 when he posted a 3.43 ERA. But things have gone poorly so far this season. Lynn’s 8.37 ERA is elevated a good bit from his 5.07 xFIP, but like Cobb, even that number wouldn’t be helping the Pirates much.
Verdict: SELL. Lynn and the Twins will probably spend most of the rest of the summer trying to figure things out and get him back to where he’s been in the past, only for him to end up as a rental piece at the deadline. Maybe the Pirates will be interested then.
C Jonathan Lucroy, Oakland A’s, 1 year, $6.5 million
Can you remember the days when catcher wasn’t a dominant strength for the Pirates? There were plenty out there that thought the Bucs could upgrade Francisco Cervelli with a bit of an investment in someone like Lucroy, who ended up signing a very reasonable deal. Lucroy has done just fine for the A’s, with a slightly below average start at the plate (.256/.326/.321), but most will take that if getting good defense from the catcher position.
Verdict: SELL. But the Pirates aren’t most. Cervelli is off to an unbelievable start, with a 164 wRC+ through the first month and backup Elias Diaz has been even better, posting a ridiculous .455/.500/.636 triple-slash line. The Pirates are looking just fine at catcher for 2018 and beyond at the moment.
3B Mike Moustakas, Kansas City Royals, 1 year, $6.5 million
I have a feeling Pittsburgh fans would have gotten behind “Moose” pretty quickly and why not? The third baseman has been excellent so far, hitting nearly .300 with eight homers. He certainly would have been at least a slight offensive upgrade on rookie Colin Moran, with a 140 wRC+ compared to a 124. But Moran has had better defense and is still in the upward portion of his career trajectory.
Verdict: SELL. Moustakas might have been an upgrade over Moran for this year, but the Pirates needed to find out what they had in Moran and get him meaningful MLB playing time. I’m also skeptical that Moustakas would have given the Pirates the same sweet deal he gave the Royals.
That certainly isn’t an exhaustive list, but is a pretty good representation of the players that were still available the longest this spring. Some of those players will turn things around and some of the Pirates off to hot starts probably won’t maintain them, but after a month, Huntington looks pretty good for having decided to hold on to his chips this spring.
