For the third year in a row, Andrew McCutchen showed a disturbing trend of struggling during an extended period during the regular season.
The trend started in 2015 when he struggled during the month of April with a .636 OPS, only to quickly rebound and look like the star player he was to that point.
It got worse in 2016, with a .719 OPS through the end of July. That did include an .807 OPS during the month of May, but struggles the other three months. McCutchen was benched at the start of August, but returned strong with an .852 OPS in the final two months of the season.
He saw another slump this year, struggling in April and May with a combined .705 OPS. He looked like a star in June and July, combining for an OPS over 1.100, but fell back in August with a .583 OPS. He rebounded for the final month to the tune of an .844 OPS in September, after the Pirates were out of it.
There is no single player more important to the Pirates’ success than Andrew McCutchen. He is the only player on the team who has shown the ability to be a star player, capable of producing more than 3-4 WAR per year. We saw that version of McCutchen from 2011-2015, annually producing 5.5 WAR or greater. Last year he struggled so much that he was barely above replacement level. This year he showed he could still be a star at times, but the lack of consistency led to him having a 3.7 WAR, which is a down year for McCutchen.
The Pirates need someone who will anchor the team. They need someone with consistency. McCutchen used to be that guy, capable of picking up the team when someone else slumped. When he slumps, it’s difficult for the team to make up for that. It’s probably not much of a coincidence that McCutchen’s best months in June and July this year were also the months where the Pirates finished .500 or better.
McCutchen is currently the only player capable of providing impact performance for an extended period of time. Unfortunately, McCutchen doesn’t seem to be that player anymore who can provide this type of impact performance consistently.
The 2018 Direction
Despite being inconsistent, Andrew McCutchen could still be a key player for the Pirates if they want to contend in 2018. He has a team option for $14.75 M, which will definitely be picked up. The only question is whether they keep him around, or trade him away.
If they keep him around for his final year, then they will have to give the team an additional boost, as it wouldn’t make sense to keep the same 2017 team together and try to contend. Keeping McCutchen under those circumstances would continue the “No-Man’s Land” approach by the Pirates, and would essentially waste any remaining value that McCutchen had left for the team.
If they decided to move him, it wouldn’t necessarily mean they were in for a long rebuild. They could move him for prospects, add a short-term replacement, and use the money saved on him to boost the team in other areas for 2018. Or, they could use 2018 as a quick rebuilding year, trade a few other players for that rebuild, and aim to contend again in 2019.
The problem here is that there is no internal replacement for McCutchen. This was supposed to be an easy decision, with Austin Meadows making McCutchen expendable. However, Meadows has dealt with plenty of injury issues, which has delayed his arrival in the majors. He’s not ready yet, and the hope is that he will be ready by the middle of the 2018 season.
What adds to this problem is that the Pirates were supposed to have two other impact outfielders by now. Starling Marte has put up a 4.0 WAR or better in the past, but slumped this past year, and was suspended for 80 games for PED usage. Gregory Polanco has impact upside, but the best we’ve seen so far is a 2.5 WAR, and he’s also coming off a down year due to injuries. If Marte wasn’t coming off a down year, and if Polanco had gotten closer to his upside, or even if Polanco was coming off a normal year, things might be different.
Instead, the Pirates are in a situation where they need McCutchen to contend in 2018. And even if they keep him around to contend, they will need more than just him. They could try to contend without him, but it would be difficult, relying on way too many things to go right.
That’s not the position they wanted to be in at this point. They wanted to have Marte and Polanco as impact outfielders, with the rookie Austin Meadows easing his way into the majors.
So we’ll see what happens with McCutchen in the coming months. The decision on him will ultimately determine what direction the Pirates should go in during the 2018 season. If they keep him, they need to make a strong attempt to go for it. If they trade him, then it makes more sense to focus on future years, with less of an effort to contend in 2018.
