On Friday, we took a look at a new mock draft from Jim Callis on MLB Pipeline. He had the Pittsburgh Pirates taking right-handed pitcher Alex Faedo from the University of Florida. In that draft, he has Vanderbilt outfielder Jeren Kendall slipping all the way to the Kansas City Royals at the 14th pick. That scenario would mean that the Pirates passed on one of the most talented players in the draft, a center fielder with plus-plus speed (17-for-21 in steals), who has hit 13 homers already this season. Keith Law’s mock draft from yesterday has Kendall slipping all the way to the 21st spot.
The big question with Kendall is his strikeouts. It’s become a major issue this year. He is hitting .303/.380/.567 in 231 plate appearances, but that comes with 58 strikeouts. That’s a very high strikeout rate for college, which makes it an alarming total for someone who is considered a first round pick. He had 62 strikeouts last year, but he also batted 54 more times to reach that total. It was an area where scouts hoped to see an improvement, but his strikeout rate has gone up as a junior. His season stats were also slightly better last year.
It’s a tough set of tools to pass up because you can assume the tools will at least get him to the majors, even if he doesn’t make enough contact to be a valuable offensive player. He could easily be a rich man’s Casey Hughston, which makes him a risky pick/investment in the first round. You might end up settling for a strong center fielder, who steals 20 bases and runs into the occasional homer, but hits near the bottom of the order because he doesn’t get on base enough. Definitely a risk vs reward situation, which is usually associated more with high school picks, not major college players.
Here’s a video of Kendall from 2080 Baseball
An interesting pick who seems like he would be appealing to the Pirates is North Carolina shortstop Logan Warmoth. Callis has him going 23rd, but I could see the Pirates focusing in on him and “reaching” for him. It’s easy to say they don’t need a shortstop, but that ignores the fact that an athletic shortstop could move to another spot. It’s the athleticism and bat that I think they could find intriguing.
His overall profile seems to be similar to Kevin Newman, except with more power and Newman barely ever struck out in college, which has carried over to the pros. Warmoth doesn’t strike out much and won’t be hitting 20 homers in a season. His speed/defense/arm all get the same ratings as Newman, so you’re talking about similar values at the same position, even if they are slightly different players.
Here’s a Baseball America video of Warmoth in the field. He basically gets the same report Newman did in college, where some scouts think he can stick at shortstop and some think second base would be better.
News and Notes
** Houston kicked left-handed pitcher Seth Romero off of the team earlier this week. He’s a player with top ten talent in this draft, but he has numerous issues in his past. In fact, his dismissal from the team came shortly after he returned from a team suspension. Some team is likely going to get a talented player much cheaper than what they would pay for a similar talent, but they are obviously taking on a lot of risk with the pick.
** Jim Callis answered questions about players on the rise in the draft, including Alex Faedo, who he had for the Pirates in his mock draft. He also touched on the Romero topic.
** Here’s a link from MLB Pipeline with details on the draft coverage. It sounds like only the first 36 picks will be televised this year, then they will switch over to an MLB.com broadcast of the rest of the draft, including the final 39 picks on day one (picks 37-75). It’s now less than one month until the draft starts, so expect more mock drafts in the coming days.
**Perfect Game has their first mock draft up and they have the Pirates taking prep RHP Shane Baz. We covered him here twice last month. The first time when he went just a couple picks after the Pirates in a mock draft, then again when MLB Pipeline had him ranked 12th overall in their updated rankings. I think Baz would be an excellent pick at 12th overall, but Jim Callis recently noted that he might be dead set on going to TCU. That could be a risky selection if you’re making picks after him knowing that it might take extra money to sign him. That’s how you could end up with a weaker class, while not getting the played you wanted.
