When breaking down the problems with the Pirates so far this year, there is no one specific reason to point out. In the last day I’ve seen multiple writers and outlets try to take the silver bullet approach to try and place the blame on one specific thing — the farm system — while ignoring or downplaying some pretty serious issues with the club.
The Pirates have issues with their offense. They have issues with their defense. They have issues with their bullpen. The starting pitching actually doesn’t look to be as big of an issue, especially compared to where they were last year. It’s hard to write an article breaking down all of the reasons for their struggles, along with assigning blame to various parties. It’s a lot easier to point to something general like the farm system and say that it has failed because it doesn’t solve all of life’s problems.
That’s not the approach I’m going to be taking. I prefer to break down every aspect of what is going wrong with the team, getting a very nuanced view, rather than trying to manufacture something simple and direct to fit into an 800 word column. This process will span multiple articles, and already started yesterday with my look at the utility players. The conclusion there was that the Pirates need help on both offense and defense, and the utility players are only helping with one of those issues, which means they’re not going to solve all of the issues with this team.
I was thinking about which problem to start with first — the offense or the defense — but that choice was pretty much made last night. It’s hard to watch Gerrit Cole’s best start of his MLB career wasted in a 1-0 loss where the other team only had two hits. Granted, they allowed the one run due to an error, and that would justify a look at the fielding. But it just seems appropriate to start with the offense, since they should be able to overcome one run, even if it is unearned.
As I pointed out yesterday in the chart below, the Pirates have taken a big hit to their offense from 2016 to the current season. Here were the top ten performers last year, and their status leading into yesterday’s game.
Just off the bat, you’ve lost the top four performers from last year, and four of the next six are under-performing their 2016 results. One of the bright spots on the team — David Freese — is now hurt and might be a risk for the DL. I feel like this chart could be the entire article, but we’re going to break down each section further.
The Loss of Kang and Marte
The craziest thing I’ve seen so far is the attempt to discount to losses of Starling Marte and Jung Ho Kang as something the Pirates should easily be able to get over. Those two weren’t just the top two performers out of the 2016 Pirates starting group. They were two of the better performers in baseball.
Out of 268 qualified players with 300+ plate appearances last year, Kang ranked 33rd in wOBA and Marte ranked 61st. Kang ranked 24th and Marte ranked 60th in wRC+. If every team in baseball is drafting a lineup based on those numbers, Kang would be at the end of the first round or the start of the second round, and Marte would be at the end of the second or start of the third round.
Losing Marte for half a season, and probably losing Kang for the entire season is devastating to the Pirates, especially when you consider the timing. Kang’s DUI sentencing came at the start of March. The Pirates already had a replacement for him in David Freese, but didn’t know until halfway through Spring Training that he would miss time, and didn’t know until late in Spring Training that he could possibly miss the entire season with his visa issue.
Maybe they could have overcome that, but losing Marte for 80 games early in the season is a rough follow-up blow. If Marte gets suspended in mid-June or July, this is less of an issue, because Austin Meadows might be ready to step in at that point. That’s not the case early in the season, and with Kang already out, the depth has been depleted.
If you’re ignoring or glossing over the impact of losing Kang and Marte this year, or expecting that the Pirates should have easily had replacements for these scenarios, then you’re not giving this situation an objective look.
Free Agent Departures and a Different Approach For 2017
The Pirates had a lot of struggles from their offense in 2016. Andrew McCutchen had a down year, almost every starter played below projections, and Kang missed the start of the season. They overcame this in large part because of the free agent additions they made for the bench. They brought in Matt Joyce, Sean Rodriguez, and David Freese, and as you can see from the chart above, they were three of the best performers on the team.
Freese stuck around on a two-year, $11 M extension, while Rodriguez and Joyce departed as free agents on similar deals. The Pirates tried to pursue Rodriguez to return, but he ended up signing with the Braves.
Rather than loading up on veterans and hoping for the same result as last year, the Pirates went with a bit of a younger approach. Their top bench option was Adam Frazier, who made his debut last year. They added Alen Hanson to the team, due to him being out of options. Their first big callup was Jose Osuna, and he is getting priority playing time over some of the other bench players.
Outside of backup catcher Chris Stewart, the remaining two bench players don’t exactly fall into the “youth movement” category. John Jaso and Phil Gosselin make up the final two spots, and I can’t fault the Pirates for trying either player, considering the track records.
If you look at the chart above, Jaso was as productive as Frazier and Freese last year. A big reason for that was a very strong finish to the season off the bench in August and September. That’s similar to what Sean Rodriguez showed in 2015 before returning for a monster season in 2016. The problem is that Jaso has not come close to that production yet in 2017.
Gosselin, on the other hand, has a career .277/.324/.375 line, although that’s mostly fueled by his numbers hitting in Arizona. He wouldn’t have made the team if Kang was around, and his addition seemed to be more about his versatility around the infield and his defense at those spots, rather than his bat. It looked like he was expected to be the next Sean Rodriguez, playing as the defensive backup late in games and hopefully providing some value with the bat.
Ideally, you would want someone who can play offense and defense. Those guys are starters, and you’re not going to have a bench loaded with them. David Freese and Adam Frazier were the closest things. Frazier is on the DL, Freese could be joining them, and that would be another massive blow for the Pirates, as they were the top guys to replace Kang and Marte.
It’s not a bad thing to give priority playing time to Frazier, Osuna, and other younger players. Eventually, you need to do that, otherwise you’re always going to be relying on veteran free agents, and they don’t always work out like the 2016 class. The problem this year is that the Pirates have so many needs, and none of the players they have coming up fill all of the needs.
Austin Meadows will eventually be ready for the outfield, and would be the biggest impact player from the minors in terms of providing value on both sides of the ball. Right now, I don’t think his offense is ready for the majors. Until then, the Pirates will focus on their offensive boost from Osuna and Frazier/Freese when they are healthy.
As for Jaso and Gosselin, I don’t think the leash should be long on these guys, and when everyone is healthy, I don’t think Jose Osuna should be going down if these two are still on the roster.
Finally, there’s Alen Hanson. I think Hanson could have some potential as an MLB bench player, but the Pirates don’t seem intent on using him. Osuna already has more playing time, and he’s been up for a week, compared to a month for Hanson. The Pirates are wasting a spot here if they’re not going to play Hanson, and any chance of him making it in the majors is going to be close to zero percent in Pittsburgh if this continues.
Playing Below Career Numbers
I mostly focused on the bench in the previous section, as the Pirates had their other starters returning this year, leaving no offseason moves. So far, most of those starters are performing below their career numbers.
Josh Bell doesn’t have a long career, but his .273/.368/.406 last year in his MLB debut,with a .339 wOBA and a 113 wRC+. This year he’s off to a slow start, hitting .214/.313/.357 with a .299 wOBA and an 88 wRC+.
Francisco Cervelli is hitting for more power this year, with a .175 ISO. However, his .370-range OBP the last two years hasn’t returned, with his current OBP sitting at .261.
Jordy Mercer hasn’t been a great producer on offense, but has slipped this year. His career numbers are .255/.313/.373, and the 2016 season was similar. This year he’s at .206/.289/.265 so far.
Gregory Polanco is still waiting for that breakout season, and not off to as hot of a start as he had last year. He had a .258/.323/.463 line last year, but is sitting at .226/.304/.290 this year. The good news is that the walks are slightly up and the strikeouts are slightly down. The bad news is that the power has dropped, along with the hard contact dropping from 35.7% to 22.4%.
Finally, there’s Andrew McCutchen, who is hitting for a .250/.329/.431 line that is almost identical to his .256/.336/.430 line last year. That line included a strong finish to the season, so McCutchen could rebound and post better numbers. But I think we also need to entertain the possibility that this is the hitter he is at this stage in his career.
The Pirates already had two starters out for extended periods of time. Five of the other starters are performing below expectations. Even if they were performing up to their normal numbers, it would be hard to replace Kang and Marte. But it obviously doesn’t help at all to see so many struggling.
The Guys Who Are Working Out
This is a short list, and the only guy on the list who is healthy is Josh Harrison. He has a .290/.380/.387 line, with the OBP inflated by a lot of HBP. There aren’t any big variances with his advanced metrics, and he’s pretty much on pace with his career numbers, outside of the OBP.
Harrison wasn’t a big producer on offense though, providing more value on defense at second base, where he has been one of the best defenders in the league. In a normal year, it would be good that he’s maintaining his offense and providing defense. Unfortunately, the Pirates need to find extra offense right now.
David Freese was making us forget about Jung Ho Kang, hitting for a .321/.418/.536 line so far. The average seems legit, as his BABIP of .326 is below his career .342 mark. He has severely cut down on strikeouts, with an 11.9% rate that is almost half of his career 22.8% rate. He’s also increased the walks up to 14.9%, which is an increase over his 8.3% career numbers. Finally, he’s having his best power production of his career.
I don’t think this pace will continue from Freese, but even if the Pirates get last year’s results (.270/.352/.412) it will help. That would especially be true if Freese falls back to earth right around the time that everyone else breaks out of their slumps. And the obvious hope here is that his hamstring issue isn’t serious.
Finally, there’s Adam Frazier, who was hitting for a .306/.370/.449 line that is not too far off his 2016 totals, outside of an increase in power. Unfortunately, Frazier is on the disabled list right now, leaving the Pirates without their best all-around backup option for Starling Marte. Hopefully his return is soon.
Where is the Offense?
I know the only way to appear objective is to blame the front office for everything, either by criticizing the offseason or the farm system. Unfortunately, I don’t think a true objective view would fall along those lines.
The Pirates lost their two best starters to a DUI and a PED suspension. Five other starters are performing below their career numbers. The two brightest spots in the offense, and the two best players off the bench, are hurt. And the only other guy playing at, or above his career results is more of a defensive minded player.
The Pirates have nine players who are either struggling, suspended, or injured. You can blame Neal Huntington for assembling a bench that looks like a “bridge year” approach of transitioning to younger players, while also relying on veterans like Jaso and Gosselin who have not worked out. But honestly, there was nothing he could have done to overcome the poor start to the season.
Even if they would have been able to get someone like Angel Pagan, or a player who could provide offense and defense, they’d still have almost everyone else in the starting lineup, plus the top two bench players, out or struggling.
The hope going forward is that the struggling players right the ship in a hurry, Frazier and Freese return healthy, Austin Meadows is ready by mid-season, and maybe players like Osuna or others on the team step up and keep the team afloat until Marte and/or Kang return (although I’m not counting on a Kang return this year).
The offense should be better than this without any changes. It’s just a question of when the players will improve to their normal numbers.
