Andrew McCutchen met with the media in Pittsburgh on Saturday, and mentioned a few times that it was his dream to retire a member of the Pittsburgh Pirates. That dream involved winning a World Series in Pittsburgh. I’m sure many Pirates fans have that same dream, including McCutchen’s number being retired by the Pirates, entering the Hall of Fame as a member of the Pirates, and a statue going up outside PNC Park (screw the recent trend of stadiums having a 20 year lifespan — PNC Park is a timeless instant classic).
As I was writing up the article on Saturday, I stopped for a minute to imagine that scenario. I ignored the finances, figuring that if the sentiment was real, the two sides would be able to agree on something that the Pirates could afford, without McCutchen giving up too much. I ignored the prospect side of it, with Austin Meadows having no place to play if McCutchen stuck around. I ignored the down year in 2016, and went with the assumption that McCutchen would bounce back going forward and be an impact player for years to come.
It’s a nice dream to think about. Thinking about a star player spending his entire career in one city makes you think about baseball as more than a business. It makes you think there’s something magic in the sport which brings together a community, allows for father and son to share a tradition, or just adds another icon who becomes synonymous with Pittsburgh sports.
But then you start thinking about the reality of Major League Baseball, and you realize that this dream is just that — a dream.
First of all, there’s the issue of salary. If McCutchen was extended for the long-term, it would go one of two ways. Either he would have to take a big discount to stick around in Pittsburgh on a contract they could afford, or the Pirates would have to make an extremely risky financial commitment to sign him at near-market rate. It would be unfair to expect him to take the pay cut, and it would be unfair to expect the Pirates to pay what he’d be worth on the market at his best, especially with one of the game’s best prospects ready to take over.
There have been examples of small market teams extending a franchise player for the long-term, with examples on both sides of the above scenario. None of the examples have led to good things.
In terms of paying near-market rate, the Reds and Brewers did that with Joey Votto and Ryan Braun, respectively. The Reds owe Votto $22 M in 2017, $25 M per year through 2023, and a club option for $20 M in 2024, with a $7 M buyout. That’s for his age 33-40 seasons, if you include the option year. And that’s with a team that has maxed out at $115 M in opening day payroll, went over $100 M only three times in team history, and is now in tear down and rebuild mode.
The Brewers owe Braun $19 M per year over the next two seasons, followed by $18 M, $16 M, and a $15 M mutual option from 2019-2021, respectively. He has only played one year of an extension that was signed back in 2011, at a time when he was a 7 fWAR player. In his past four seasons, he has averaged a 2.1 fWAR, with his last two seasons putting up a 2.9 and a 3.2. The Brewers are a team that maxed out at $104 M in opening day payroll, and have only topped $100 M twice. They’re also in rebuild mode right now, and won’t find it easy to trade Braun with his recent history.
The contracts for Votto and Braun aren’t the reason both teams are in rebuild mode right now. But when your team has limited funds, and can barely top $100 M in payroll, and only do it for a few years, then having a guy making $20 M or more isn’t the best strategy. It doesn’t lead to the ability to build a good team, and leads to a rebuild sooner, rather than later, due to an inability to pay other good players.
Then there’s the team friendly scenario. The Rays have saved millions upon millions of dollars with their two Evan Longoria extensions. He signed his first extension shortly after arriving in the majors, guaranteeing $17.5 M over six years. His second extension replaced the final few years, resulting in a ten-year, $135.6 M deal. He is making $13 M in 2017, and won’t go over $15 M until the final two years, when he makes $18.5 M and $19.5 M.
The Rays are probably the lowest budget team in the majors, and have topped out at $75-77 M in payroll the last few years, which mark their highest totals in team history. So even though Longoria is still productive, and even though he’s cheap, you’re starting to hear some trade rumblings because of how much salary he takes up compared to their payroll.
The Pirates could probably afford a team-friendly extension like the Rays got with Longoria (which probably saved them about $70 M). The Pirates have a bigger budget, and the ability to spend a little over $100 M, which we saw last year, and which we should see again this year. And the hope would be that McCutchen would still be a 4+ WAR player into his 30s and beyond (Longoria has only played through his age 30 season, so the jury is still out with him).
But then you think about the alternative. The Pirates have Austin Meadows, who is one of the top prospects in the game, and knocking on the door in Triple-A. He could be ready at some point in 2017. Prospects are never a guarantee, but Meadows is safer than most, with a good approach at the plate, and some developing power that could make him an impact player in the majors. He’s similar to McCutchen in that he’s a safer prospect and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he does become a star player one day. Keep in mind that when McCutchen first arrived, people weren’t projecting that he would become one of the best in the game, although that wasn’t out of the realm of possibility. Generally, that’s something that is earned, and not projected.
When comparing Meadows and McCutchen, it’s not about comparing Meadows to what McCutchen has been so far. It’s about comparing Meadows in his age 22-30 seasons to McCutchen in his age 30-38 seasons. I don’t know if Meadows will be better than McCutchen was, but I think the start of his career could easily be as good as the declining years of McCutchen’s career. Not to mention, it would be a lot cheaper.
The argument for McCutchen to retire a Pirate revolves around a feel-good story that ignores a lot of realities of MLB. But once you factor in those realities, you see how it makes no sense with the way the game of baseball is today. Extending McCutchen means you are paying more for his declining years, which puts a crunch on the rest of the payroll when you consider that teams in this market size can usually only spend a little over $100 M at most.
Extending McCutchen also means you’re passing up on a younger player in Austin Meadows who could be just as good, or maybe better, at a fraction of the price. Even if you replace Meadows with Starling Marte or Gregory Polanco in this scenario, you’re still replacing a younger player who can perform the same at least, and at a cheaper price.
It’s a nice dream to imagine McCutchen retiring as a member of the Pirates, and winning it all here. But it just seems impossible with the way MLB is set up. If it did happen, I think the Pirates would end up like the Brewers and the Reds one day, in the middle of a rebuild that is made worse due to an aging star with a contract that is impossible to trade. That’s a really high price to pay for loyalty, and all of the other feel-good things that would come with McCutchen playing his entire career as a member of the Pirates.
**Andrew McCutchen Discusses Trade Rumors, 2016 Season, and Wanting to Retire a Pirate. The story from Saturday with McCutchen’s comments on the trade talk and wanting to retire a Pirate.
**Gerrit Cole Will Start His Offseason Throwing Program on Monday. Good sign for Cole, although we really won’t know how he’s bouncing back until Spring Training, at the least.
**John Jaso Discusses Playing Third Base and the Outfield in 2017. I’m wondering if Jaso’s final two months was legit, just like the final two months for Sean Rodriguez in 2015, which carried over to 2016.
**Winter Leagues: Eric Wood Reaches Base Four Times Saturday Night. Now that the Eric Wood Rule 5 concern is over, I wonder where he will end up in 2017. I’d have to think he’ll start off in Triple-A, since the Pirates rarely keep guys in Double-A for more than two seasons, especially after they make progress like Wood made this past year.
