I had a topic lined up for First Pitch tonight about the minor league starting pitching, but a rumor came up that Tony Watson is believed to be available on the trade market, so I pushed that article back, and this article is the replacement for First Pitch tonight. The rumor comes from Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune (via MLBTR) in a discussion about Seattle’s options for a lefty reliever.
Dutton notes that the Mariners are going after Brett Cecil, and that Watson is a guy to watch if they can’t get Cecil, as he is “believed to be available.” Seattle wouldn’t be the only team looking for a lefty reliever, and Watson would have a high value, even coming off a down year. He has one year of arbitration and a projected $5.9 M remaining. Cecil, for example, is projected to get anywhere from three years, $18 M (MLBTR) to three years, $33 M (FanGraphs). Watson would come in at one year around the same average price or less, and has had a higher value than Cecil the last few years, making him a great fallback option for teams that miss out on Cecil and the top option, Aroldis Chapman.
It’s hard to say what the Pirates could get for Watson, since the trade market is so unpredictable for relievers. They got five years and two months of Felipe Rivero, plus Taylor Hearn, in exchange for two months of Mark Melancon. They should be able to get a good return for Watson, possibly even going the familiar route of getting a younger reliever with upside and years of control. That worked out so well when they traded Joel Hanrahan for Mark Melancon, and it looks like it will work out again with the trade of Melancon for Rivero.
But the big question is what would happen with the bullpen with Watson gone? The Pirates would have Felipe Rivero and Juan Nicasio for the late innings. They’d have Antonio Bastardo as a second lefty, and a few other options for lefty depth (Steven Brault might be the top option, and Wade LeBlanc could be a possibility). They have a few middle relief options in A.J. Schugel, Jared Hughes (who I project to be non-tendered, but who they could try to get for a deal cheaper than his arbitration price), Trevor Williams (currently a starter, but projects for the bullpen long-term), and the young fireballers in Triple-A — Edgar Santana and Dovydas Neverauskas.
The Pirates would lack a “closer”, which isn’t really important. They might be better off with a flexible bullpen, going with the best pitcher available in the tough situation, and relying on a committee to pitch the ninth inning. I’ve been arguing for this for years, and it makes more sense than ever for the Pirates right now. I think there’s an edge to be had in abandoning the traditional bullpen roles, where you can not only save some money in the bullpen, but maximize the production from your relievers. The Pirates could use a bit of both in 2017.
One issue they’d have is that they would at least need one more power reliever, and maybe two. The combo of Nicasio and Rivero in the late innings is a good start, but you’d like to have one or two more hard throwers, and I’m not sure I’d trust Neverauskas or Santana right off the bat. Maybe one late inning guy would come back in a Watson deal, similar to the Rivero return for Melancon. That could still happen, as so many teams prefer “established” guys, meaning you can still get a good reliever who hasn’t had a lot of experience in the majors. On that same note, it might be a bit hypocritical of me to criticize that mindset, then say that Santana and Neverauskas shouldn’t be considered late inning options due to a lack of experience, when their stuff clearly is late inning material.
The Pirates could also try to bring in a cheaper reliever, and we saw last year that you can get a hard thrower for a few million. They got Neftali Feliz and Juan Nicasio for a combined $7 M, which is about a million more than Watson is projected to receive. If the Pirates can get a young, controllable reliever for Watson, and then use his money to get another hard throwing duo like Feliz and Nicasio, then their overall bullpen might be better off, while spending about the same amount of money.
The key thing here is that the Pirates seem to be shaping up for a very flexible off-season, with a lot of moving parts, and the potential for some creative ways to upgrade their overall team. I don’t think this will be straightforward at all, where they keep the same team, add one or two pitchers, and roll the dice next year. I could see a lot of roster shuffling, where they try to upgrade the 2017 team, try to deal away some guys who are only under control for the next year or two, and get some long-term help in the process, improving their chances beyond 2017. It would be a tough balancing act between those three goals, but it’s not impossible. And if the Pirates take that approach, then trading Watson away would make a lot of sense.
**Here are all of the articles from today, as the off-season starts to heat up with some rumors and the winter league action picks up:
**Pirates Are Pursuing Sean Rodriguez, Along With Four Other Teams. One of those teams is the Dodgers, and with their funds, it would be hard for the Pirates to compete with Rodriguez if the Dodgers are serious about getting him.
**Austin Meadows Leads a Very Deep Altoona Top 10 Prospect List. Our top 10 list for Altoona was deep, with every player projected for our top 50 prospect list at the end of the year.
**AFL: Alex McRae Throws Two Shutout Innings, As Surprise Fails to Clinch Division Title. John Dreker with the latest AFL report in the final week of the season.
**Winter Leagues: Alen Hanson Starts Off Slow; Pablo Reyes Extends Hit Streak. Hanson is fitting in with the other top winter league prospects who are starting off slow.
