The Pirates have some shopping to do once the off-season really gets under way (and that might not be for another month). They need pitching, mostly starting pitching, but also possibly a late inning reliever to add to their current mix of Tony Watson, Felipe Rivero, and Juan Nicasio.
They have a lot of pitching prospects in the upper levels right now. We started to see some of them arrive in 2016, with Jameson Taillon and Chad Kuhl making the biggest impacts. Guys like Steven Brault, Trevor Williams, and Tyler Glasnow also arrived for brief appearances. All three of those guys should provide starting depth in 2017, with the hope that Glasnow figures it out, and with the option for Brault and/or Williams to transition to the bullpen, if needed. There’s also Nick Kingham returning from Tommy John surgery. If he returns to being close to what he was prior to the injury, he would propel above Brault and Williams as a better starting depth option.
There are also some prospects who have been starters in the majors, but project as relievers in the Pirates’ system, due to the amount of young prospects ahead of them. Frank Duncan is the only one from this group that has pitched in Triple-A, putting up some impressive results this season. The 2017 season should see promotions at some point for Clay Holmes, Tyler Eppler, Cody Dickson, Alex McRae, and/or Brandon Waddell. Holmes has the best chance to remain a starter from this group.
A rough projection of the minor league rotations shows that not all of these guys will be able to move up into starting roles in Triple-A, and if they move up, some of them might be transitioning to the bullpen. It’s hard to say what kind of relievers the Pirates could get from this group, since starters-turned-relievers are so hard to predict. For example, Tony Watson made the transition in 2010 in his age 25 season in Double-A. He had a 3.78 ERA and a 39:12 K/BB ratio as a starter in 47.2 innings. He went on to become one of the best relievers in the majors just a few years later. I’d be cautious with the current group, project middle relief as the upside, and hope for someone to exceed that.
But what about the chances of exceeding middle relief and finding a late inning reliever? The Pirates do have two relief candidates in Triple-A who fit this bill, and both could arrive in 2017. One is Dovydas Neverauskas, who was just added to the 40-man roster to prevent him from reaching free agency. Neverauskas was always a hard thrower, hitting 95 with poor control at age 18. The control never came with his four seam fastball, and he switched to a two-seamer in 2015, then saw upper 90s velocity with the pitch in 2016, along with much improved control.
Edgar Santana is the other option, making a very impressive jump through the system by going from the DSL to Indianapolis in two years. I wrote about him today, and how he’s having so much success, despite a late start in baseball. He throws mid-90s with good movement and generates a lot of ground balls. He also has a plus slider that is an out pitch, and good enough control of his pitches to be a late inning guy who won’t have a bunch of walks that take away from his high strikeout totals.
Neverauskas only has 30 innings against Triple-A hitting, and Santana only has 16 innings, so don’t expect either pitcher to be up on Opening Day. I wouldn’t be surprised though if the Pirates add one or both of these hard throwers to the bullpen in Pittsburgh at some point in 2017. And in projecting upsides, I think both of them project better as relievers than the current Altoona starters (minus Holmes), as they both have good velocity and better breaking pitches, giving them more of a chance to be late inning relievers.
The Pirates have a lot of pitching depth coming up through the system, and goal number one should be building the rotation. Once that is complete, they can turn some of the extra starters into relievers, and hopefully build a strong and cost controlled bullpen, allowing them to use resources in other areas, rather than spending a quarter of their payroll on the bullpen like they did in 2016. The good news is that they have enough pitching in the upper levels now that they can focus on both the rotation and the bullpen. They’ll still need some outside help heading into the 2017 season, but with guys like Santana, Neverauskas, and all of the Altoona starters, they’ve got a lot of candidates who can step up and provide a big boost from within at some point this year.
**After a Late Start in Baseball, Edgar Santana is One Step Away From Pittsburgh. My feature on Santana today, from my AFL coverage last week.
**AFL: Tanner Anderson Pitches Out of Trouble to Pick Up Victory. The latest AFL results, with another interesting future relief option who I wouldn’t list as more than a future middle reliever right now.
