During last year’s winter league coverage, the big story was the breakout of Jose Osuna. This off-season hasn’t produced any real breakouts yet. Elvis Escobar got off to a great start, then really slumped, before having a decent stretch over this last week. Pablo Reyes got off to a terrific start in the Dominican, but then he lost his playing time to more experienced/older players. That will happen often in winter leagues with younger players and this is the first time Reyes has played winter ball.
We have mostly seen slumps this winter, with Edwin Espinal and Willy Garcia losing starting spots due to poor starts. Escobar’s slump coincided with the slump of Jose Osuna, who was off to a solid start, though nothing like last year when he was hitting from Opening Day until the end of the winter season. Alen Hanson began his season late, then got hurt in the middle of his fourth game. Eric Wood joined the Dominican league just two days after the Arizona Fall League ended and he hasn’t done much, partly due to bad weather postponing two games. Basically, we haven’t had much to get excited about this winter like in the past with Osuna, Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco having huge seasons.
I only mentioned Osuna with those two star players because they carried the winter coverage like he did last year. Both went on to make the majors the following season, while Osuna didn’t quite make that same jump, though he did get added to the 40-man roster. Those players didn’t get a chance to follow up their big seasons because the Pirates put limitations on them. Marte played a few games until he injured his wrist on a hit-by-pitch, while Polanco played one minor league game in the Dominican and took batting practice a few times with his team, but that was the extent of his winter ball.
We don’t have a good comparison for what Osuna is doing this year, but we can look at what has gone wrong so far. He’s playing in the same league, for the same team, against the same level of competition. He probably has a bit more respect from the pitchers this season, so it’s possible he isn’t seeing much to hit. You could say that he may be tired from the amount of playing time throughout, but Osuna has played winter ball full-time the previous three years. The first two were mostly in the minors in Venezuela, known as the Parallel League (technically, Liga de Paralela). He actually had more time off between the end of the regular season with Indianapolis and the start of the league this year, so it’s a tough excuse to use.
At this time last year, Osuna was hitting .336/.401/.463 through 38 games. He finished his season with a .330/.395/.519 slash line in 240 plate appearances over 59 games. So he added some power as the season came to a close, while the average/OBP basically stayed the same. Those stats gave him the fifth highest OPS in the league and helped him win the Venezuelan league Rookie of the Year award, while finishing third in their MVP race.
So far this year, Osuna has a .247/.323/.370 slash line through 39 games. That OPS has him ranked 34th among the 46 hitters with enough at-bats to qualify for the batting title.
Osuna had a breakout season last winter and it carried over into the regular season this year, where he ended up posting an .815 OPS in 63 games with Indianapolis. While people don’t put much weight into winter league stats, for a player coming up the system, it’s a good measuring stick of their progress. In Venezuela, most of the players have some type of experience at Triple-A, or at least significant time in Double-A. You’ll get players with Major League experience and the occasional players who haven’t made it to Double-A yet. It’s basically like watching a really good Double-A game, while the better teams would be equivalent to Triple-A talent. Plus when players are around for a full-season and playoffs, they could play over 70 games, which nullifies the small sample size argument.
So you can’t use the league, amount of playing time, not having much of a break, or the level of competition as an excuse, but you can try to figure out where he is going wrong.
One of Osuna’s biggest issues this winter usually isn’t a problem for him. He has 33 strikeouts in 167 plate appearances, compared to 37 over 240 plate appearances last year. Venezuela isn’t a huge strikeout league, and Osuna’s 37 last year represented the ninth highest total in the league. His 33 this season gives him the third highest total in the league and puts him well ahead of last year’s pace.
Osuna has never been a strikeout guy because he usually swings early in the count and makes consistent contact, which also leaves him with a low walk rate every season. If he’s getting more respect at the plate, he could be seeing fewer pitches to hit. Instead of taking walks, it’s possible he is trying to do too much. As someone who bats third in the lineup and had high expectations coming into this winter, he has come up short.
We don’t know if that’s the problem this winter, but it was his problem in the past. At the end of the winter season last year, I was able to talk to someone who saw a lot of Osuna during the 2015 regular season, then saw him in the winter. I was told that Osuna made an adjustment mid-season in his approach, refusing to expand his strike zone in big spots. That was something he did a lot coming up through the system. The new approach in 2015 led to him being promoted to Altoona after three seasons in Bradenton. It carried over into the winter and for the most part, he did the same thing all throughout the 2016 season.
It will be interesting to see how Osuna does the rest of the way. With playoffs almost guaranteed for Bravos de Margarita, his season is about at the halfway mark. Despite getting better last winter as the year went along, the pitching in the league will get a little stronger as some of the better players usually get a late start to their winter season. That will make it harder to replicate last year’s success, but you want to see better stats from a player of his caliber in Venezuela.
**Upcoming Pirates Off-Season Transactions: The Non-Tender Deadline The Pirates will have to make some decisions with arbitration-eligible players by Friday’s deadline.
**Winter Leagues: The Pirates Have Playing Time Restrictions on Elias Diaz The Pirates are taking a cautious approach this winter with Elias Diaz, allowing him to play, while putting restrictions on his workload behind the plate.
**Why Would the Pirates Leave Eric Wood Unprotected in the Rule 5 Draft? We look over the possible reasons behind Eric Wood not being placed on the 40-man roster, despite a strong regular season and a solid AFL performance.
