SURPRISE, AZ – On the surface, the numbers didn’t look great for Connor Joe in 2016. He had a .277/.351/.392 line in 442 plate appearances with Bradenton. The average and OBP weren’t bad looking, but the power numbers looked weak. Granted, this came in a very pitcher friendly league, where the average slugging percentage was .356 and the average ISO was .106 (Joe was at .115). But Joe was in his age 23 season, and his second year removed from college, so you’d expect to see better numbers.
The numbers were a bit deceptive though. I got a chance to see Joe all throughout the season, from Spring Training to various points during the year in Bradenton. All year he was making hard contact. For some reason, the hits just weren’t consistently falling in. This can be a problem for a lot of players in the Florida State League. It happened with Austin Meadows, Adam Frazier, and many others who went on to put up much better numbers in Altoona. It’s the reason the league is so pitcher friendly.
As the season went on, that hard contact started leading to better results. Here were the breakdowns, by month:
April: .582 OPS / .080 ISO
May: .688 / .128
June: .780 / .136
July: .806 / .133
August/September: .840 / .102
Joe’s numbers saw a steady increase as the year went on. They carried over to the playoffs, where he exploded for a 1.138 OPS and a .458 ISO. And so far in the Arizona Fall League, he has a .794 OPS and a .194 ISO. I got to see him every step of the way, and the hard contact was consistent whether it was April, July, the playoffs, or the AFL.
There weren’t any changes to his offense throughout the year. Joe went with an approach to attack certain parts of the strike zone, and learning how opposing pitchers were trying to get him out.
“I found an approach that works for me, and built off it,” Joe said. “And just continue to build off it and stay stubborn with it. Not stray if you had a bad stretch or if you didn’t get the results you were looking for, but stay stubborn to it and stick with it. It was nice to get the results, and have it pay off later on in the season, especially in the playoffs.”
Altoona hitting coach Kevin Riggs got some work with Joe in Spring Training, but largely hadn’t worked with him much before being his AFL hitting coach. So far, Riggs has been impressed with what he’s seen.
“He showed a mature approach,” Riggs said. “Covers line to line. Will cover the ball away from him, not being specifically pull oriented. I’m excited where he’s at with his development, and I’m looking forward to him having a big year.”
Joe will move up to Altoona next year, and if Riggs stays in the same position, the two will be working together offensively. The offense hasn’t really shown up in the stats the way it was expected to when Joe was drafted. However, he doesn’t have a lot of work to do in order to put up good numbers. The big question will be where he ends up playing defensively.
The Pirates have moved Joe around the field his first few seasons in pro ball. The original plan when he was drafted was to have him in the outfield, play him at first base, and try him out behind the plate, where his bat has the most value, and where he played before in college. In his first week in the system, he had a back injury that put him out for the rest of the 2014 season, all off-season, and delayed his pro debut in 2015. That also limited him to first base in 2015, even though he got some work in practice at third, a position he hadn’t played since high school.
The catching has been put on hold, and Joe isn’t sure whether the Pirates will revisit that plan, even after recovering from his back injury. It might not even make sense to do so now, as Joe has missed two and a half years of potential development time that he could have spent behind the plate, which really reduces his chances of sticking at the position.
“I haven’t heard if that’s in the future, I haven’t heard if it’s off the table,” Joe said. “It’s up in the air. I’d be willing to go back there if they asked me to. I’d be willing to do anything I’m asked of, and whatever they want me to do, I’m going to put in my best effort and work hard at that position.”
For now, the Pirates are trying Joe at the corner spots. He played first base last year, but switched over to third base in 2016. The transition wasn’t the smoothest one, as you’d expect from a guy who hasn’t played the spot since high school. He shows good enough range at the position and a strong enough arm to make the throw, but his first step quickness could use some work. The key here is remembering that the Pirates were experimenting with Joe at third, and as he noted when I talked to him, it was always going to be a work in progress. Fortunately, he’s the type of guy who will put in the work.
“I love third base,” Joe said. “It’s very instinctual. You have to be very athletic. So for me to get over there was good. Playing in high school is a big difference from playing in pro ball. It’s a learning curve.”
This off-season, Joe has moved back to the outfield, playing the corner spots. That’s a safer projection for him going forward, as he had plenty of time at the positions in college, and has less to work on defensively compared to third base. Part of this move was because he was playing on the same team as Eric Wood. He could end up back at third base with no one challenging him in Altoona next year, but eventually, he will run into playing time problems, either with Wood ahead of him, or Will Craig and Ke’Bryan Hayes behind him. So keeping him fresh in the outfield makes sense right now.
“It’s fun,” Joe said. “It’s an easier transition than to move over to third base. The reads would be the toughest part for me right now. Off the bat, it’s tough to tell. It’s different from college, I would say.”
Joe said that the biggest differences are the speed of the game, more backspin in pro ball. It shouldn’t be too difficult to make the necessary adjustments if he needs to play outfield for the long-term.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Pirates giving Joe another shot at third base. They have a lot of third base prospects, but until one of them steps up as a long-term solution, it makes sense to give all of them a shot at the position. It especially makes sense for Joe, as that would be the most valuable position with his bat. He does have the potential to be a starter at a corner outfield spot, or even at first base, but those require much more offensive production, which means you’d have to get more aggressive with his offensive projection to see him as a future starter.
“I’m not sure what the plan going forward is,” Joe said of his position. “They have moved me around, and that’s something I’m able to do, which works to my advantage. I haven’t heard anything. That’s not my call, but wherever they ask me to play, I’m going to do to the best of my ability and hopefully be in the lineup to make a difference.”
Joe will be spending his off-season after the AFL working on conditioning, building up some speed and getting his arm stronger. That should help him, regardless of the position. The position will be a question mark for the 2017 season and beyond. As for the offense, I won’t be surprised if Joe continues making hard contact, while seeing the stats match the performance on the field.
