BRADENTON, Fla. – Jordan Luplow had a very similar start and finish to his 2016 season as he did in 2015. Last year in West Virginia, Luplow got off to a slow start, combining for a .694 OPS the first three months of the season. Things finally clicked for him in July, and in the final two months he exploded with a .994 OPS and eight homers in 176 at-bats.
The thought was that his transition to third base and the massive focus on defense led to his slow start. His finish to the season might have been better, except that a partial labrum tear slowed him down at the end of the year, and eventually shut him down for the season, requiring surgery in the off-season.
Luplow returned and got promoted for the start of the 2016 season. He went to Bradenton, where once again he had a slow start, hitting for a .646 OPS in the first two months. Once again, he caught fire in the second half, hitting for an .872 OPS from the start of June through the end of the season, with six homers in 214 at-bats. He carried the strong hitting over to Bradenton’s post-season, going 6-for-17 with three homers in the playoffs.
The second half of each season is what you want to see, and gives hope that Luplow can hit enough to reach the majors. The early struggles do raise a concern about the source of his problems.
The transition to third base definitely played some kind of a role last year, but that might have just prolonged the adjustment period. This year I thought his off-season shoulder surgery on his non-throwing shoulder might have limited him, since he was expected to miss the start of the season, but ended up returning early. However, Bradenton manager Michael Ryan said they wouldn’t have started him at the beginning of the year if the shoulder didn’t clear. Ryan’s theory is a simple one: It’s a slow adjustment for Luplow.
“Some players have a better adjustment period,” Ryan said. “Some have to take a while. And I think that’s what happened with Lup. I think he just took a while. He had to figure out how they were going to pitch him. It’s different from going from the Sally league to this league. Bigger parks, wind blows in, thick air, pitchers pitching backwards. He did a good job.”
Hitting coach Keoni De Renne, who coached Luplow in West Virginia last year as well, expanded on the thought that it’s an adjustment to how he’s being pitched.
“One of the things that he needs to really hone in on is being able to control his strike zone, and control what he’s looking for,” De Renne said. “Just basically having conviction in his approach. At times he gets into good hitter’s counts, but he expands. We’ve talked about being able to eliminate a certain pitch in a certain zone. It does look good to him, and sometimes he does go after it, even though it’s not something he should be looking for early in the count. I think the more at-bats that he gets, the more he understands what he needs to stick to, where he’s looking will allow him to not chase other pitches and maybe waste at-bats, especially when he’s in good hitter’s counts.”
Luplow has great plate patience. He walked 12.7% of the time last year in West Virginia. That was up from 10.4% of the time in Jamestown the year before. This year, the walks went up again to 14.1%. Meanwhile, the strikeouts have stayed at a respectable rate, at 18.4% this year. He wasn’t hitting for average all year, and even in July and August he combined for a .259 average. But when he does hit the ball, he hits it hard, and with some power.
This is a common tale of a guy having a good approach at the plate, and good contact skills, but not being selective enough in the pitches he wants to drive. De Renne said that if Luplow learns to be patient and selective, looking for a specific pitch, then he will be able to “barrel balls that he should be barreling”, rather than taking that pitch for a strike, or letting a pitch go that he can make contact with, even though it’s out of his strike zone.
“That’s what a lot of hitters in A-ball are trying to understand, what they’re good at, what’s their strike zone, and what their strike zone judgement is, based on their hot spots,” De Renne said. “We want him to be aggressive, because he has the ability to barrel the baseball and do some damage to all parts of the field.”
Luplow will show this ability at times, but is going to need to show it on a more consistent basis as he moves up, since upper level pitchers won’t be as forgiving. He showed a lot of this ability in the playoffs, shrinking his zone and attacking fastballs when he got ahead in the count, leading to the strong numbers. Both Ryan and De Renne praised Luplow for his confidence in the second half and in the playoffs.
“I think confidence,” Ryan said on the biggest second half change. “He’s a good player. He’s getting pitches up in the zone. The ball comes off his bat so well. I think he realizes that he can trust his hands now, and how quick they are. That he doesn’t have to do too much for the ball to fly off his bat. I think he’s trusting that more. I think that’s what’s getting him success in the second half. He’s put together a really good year for us.”
“I think mostly for Luplow, I think one, his confidence is higher,” De Renne said on the second half. “He started off slow. It took him a little while to get going. But once he started trusting what he’s been doing, and what he’s good at, I think that helped with his confidence. After that, you could see him, day in and day out, having better at-bats, getting better pitches to hit, and not chasing pitches to try to make up for the lack of production early in the first half.”
The Pirates were trying Luplow at third base last year, despite drafting him as an outfielder, and despite him not playing third since high school. They put Connor Joe at the position this year, and moved Luplow back to the outfield. The demands on his bat are higher in the outfield, since he doesn’t have a lot of range and is limited to a corner spot. His arm is average-to-above average, but overall he’s not providing a ton of defensive value. That puts the pressure on the bat.
Fortunately, Luplow’s bat is his best tool, with good contact skills, great plate patience, and the ability to hit for power. If he can learn to be more selective, and drive the pitches in his zone more consistently, then the average will go up, and the power will also increase. He could have a shot at hitting enough to become a starter in the big leagues, although he doesn’t really have a shot at that in the outfield with Pittsburgh. He’ll move up to Altoona next year, where we’ll see if he can repeat his second half success at a higher level, ideally with a quicker adjustment period this time around.
