BRADENTON, Fla. – The Pirates went big on projectable prep pitchers in the 2016 draft, signing three guys to big bonuses in the first 11 rounds, and four big bonus guys total. The results from all of the prep pitchers were encouraging, which is good, because drafting pitchers out of high school is a huge game of attrition, where you take a group of pitchers and hope that one or maybe two works out.
So far, things are working out for their fourth round pick, Braeden Ogle. The left-hander finished his season with a 2.60 ERA in 27.2 innings, along with a 20:11 K/BB ratio. His final start of the year came on August 30th, when he threw five innings without an earned run, with two walks and six strikeouts.
I wrote about Ogle shortly after he signed, noting that he already sat 91-93 MPH, touching 96, with comfort in his changeup, and a new slider that he was developing, using Noah Syndergaard’s grip as a model. The things he had to work on were command, and obviously developing that pitch.
Both areas showed good development this year, and while neither area is a completed project, Ogle is starting down the right path. The command saw a quick fix early in the year to try and show some improvements.
“When I first got here, it just finally clicked that I wasn’t staying closed,” Ogle said. “I was pretty much all arm, and I was missing high, arm-side, by flying open.”
Ogle came off the mound after the first inning in his second start, and it was pointed out to him that he was flying open. From there, he just added more focus on his delivery and what he was doing on the mound.
“I went out there and I literally just tried to stay closed,” Ogle said. “It worked instantly.”
There might be some mechanical adjustments in the future that will help Ogle with this, without having to focus on his mechanics on every pitch. He still had some issues this year, with 11 walks in his 27.2 innings, including 8 in his last 14 innings.
This isn’t uncommon though, and is something that could be fixed in the future. I was watching the August 30th game with Wilbur Miller, who made an interesting comparison. Wilbur and I both got to see Mitch Keller when he was in the GCL during his draft year, and Wilbur pointed out that Ogle had a similar makeup with his fastball. It has good movement right now, but poor command at times, but it’s still close enough that he’s going to dominate this level with the command issues. Keller eventually fixed his command with a mechanical change, and the hope is that Ogle can do the same.
Of course, Ogle would need more than that to be the same type of pitching prospect Keller currently has become, and my comparison of the two right now would stop at “they both had good fastballs with command issues and good results in the GCL”. Ogle also needs to continue developing his slider, which is still a new pitch for him that he added this year.
The results here have been encouraging, especially in his final start of the year, when he struck out six batters.
“That’s my best strikeout pitch right now, I think,” Ogle said of his slider.
Ogle referenced his second to last start on the road against the Phillies. He was getting hit hard, with his other pitches off that day, but still managed four strikeouts in five innings because they couldn’t hit the slider. When I saw the pitch on the 30th, it had some good break, but didn’t have consistent movement.
Prior to adding the slider, Ogle had a slurve that was in the mid-70s, and was ineffective. He wanted a pitch with more velocity and more break, so he adopted the same slider that Syndergaard uses. Once he got to trusting the grip and throwing it hard, rather than trying to guide it, he started seeing success. He’s now working on when to throw the pitch against lefties and right-handers, although admits he’s still working on figuring out sequences.
There’s a long road ahead for Ogle. He will likely go to Bristol next year, and could have a shot at West Virginia in 2018. He’s got a lot of upside, as you’d expect from a lefty who sits 92-93 and touches as high as 96 at such a young age. He’s going to need to fix his mechanics in a way where it will be second nature to him to stay back. He’s also going to have to show continued development on his slider, getting it to the point where it has consistent movement, and where he can learn how to use the pitch for strikes, and for strikeouts. For now, he’s got everything in place to make him an interesting project to watch, with a lot of upside if the command and the slider develop well.
