A few years ago, the Pittsburgh Pirates didn’t have a shortstop of the future on the horizon. They drafted Chase d’Arnaud and Jordy Mercer in the third and fourth round of the 2008 draft, respectively, but there was no guarantee one of them would start. Mercer didn’t have the defense coming up through the minors to make you think he could start at the position, while d’Arnaud had the defensive tools, but lacked consistency.
The Pirates gave d’Arnaud the first chance, but he didn’t work out. Then, Mercer improved his defense in the majors, working closely with Clint Barmes, and finally emerged as a starting option for the Pirates.
A few years later, the Pirates find themselves with a much different situation at shortstop. They took two shortstops in the first round in recent years, drafted a shortstop in the third round this year, and invested in another guy on the international side. The best way to see how stocked the system is would be to look at Pablo Reyes. He’s got the tools to play the position, but can be a little out of control at times, leading to consistency problems that will probably eventually result in him moving off the position. A few years ago, he would have had plenty of opportunities at shortstop. Now? He doesn’t even make it out of A-ball before being moved off the position, and has trouble finding time at second base due to Kevin Kramer, a college shortstop who was immediately moved to second base due to being on the same team as first round shortstop Kevin Newman.
The Pirates have some nice depth at the position, giving them a good chance for a shortstop of the future. And since shortstops can usually play anywhere, the guys who don’t become that shortstop of the future will have a shot at another position if they also work out. The list of shortstop prospects breaks down into two categories: The defense-only guys who have a small chance of developing offense, and the strong offensive shortstops who have a good chance of sticking at the position, but need some work to improve the defense beyond that. Here is each list.
The Defensive Specialists
There are two ways you can ensure that you’ll have a long career in baseball. Number one involves being a pitcher with a dominant left hand. Number two involves having strong defense at the shortstop position.
Shortstop is the hardest position to play on the field. Almost every player played the position at some point in their career, from Little League through college and pro ball. But eventually, most of them move off the position when they no longer become the most athletic player on their team. The guys who make it as shortstops in pro ball are the best of the best of the best, and so on. And the guys who can actually play the position and excel at the position are going to get plenty of chances to succeed.
Think of a strong defensive shortstop like a young pitcher who can touch mid-to-upper 90s with his fastball, but who has control problems. The velocity has appeal, and will get that guy chances. At the least, he might get a cup of coffee in the majors. If he improves the control, he might go on to be more than that. And if you get enough of those guys, you’re bound to find one that works out.
The difference with a strong defensive shortstop is that the defense translates easier to the upper levels, compared to a pitcher with control problems. The offense might not improve, but teams are willing to carry a strong defensive shortstop with no offense if the defense is good enough. Consider that Pedro Ciriaco and Argenis Diaz, both around age 30, are still getting time in Triple-A, and are an injury away from the majors, despite poor offense.
The Pirates have several strong defensive options, with the best defender in Triple-A, and a few more in the lower levels.
Gift Ngoepe – At this point, the odds of Ngoepe developing consistent offense are slim. That said, his defense is so smooth that he is guaranteed to get time in the majors eventually, and that could come as soon as next week when rosters expand. He won’t have a career as a starter, but at the least he will have a long career as a Triple-A depth option, and his defense is good enough that he could be a Clint Barmes type backup in the majors one day for a team that prioritizes defense over offense at shortstop and other positions around the infield. The Pirates are one of those teams.
Stephen Alemais – Alemais has really impressed me in his pro debut, with the defensive skills really standing out. He also might have the best chance of this group to be more than just a strong defensive shortstop, although that’s not saying he has a good chance. He was a good hitter in high school before having labrum surgery. He was expected to have a good year offensively this year, but aggravated the shoulder early in the year, and that impacted his hitting. We’ll see if that has any long-term impact on his offense, as that was his non-throwing shoulder, but his lead shoulder when hitting. He’s going back to being a switch hitter, so if that does impact him, it might be better batting from the left side most of the time.
Adrian Valerio – Valerio is going to face the curse of being a top international prospect who doesn’t develop right away. He was signed for $400,000 in 2013, putting him on the radar before he even played in a game. He is now in Bristol in his age 19 season, when a US player would either be a freshman in college, or probably also in Bristol, in his first full season. He’s still raw, which isn’t a problem for his age (two years younger than Alemais, seven younger than Gift, one older than Victor), but because this is his fourth season on the radar, it seems like he should be ahead of where he is. I wrote about him this week, noting that his defense is good, but still has some work to be more consistent, while he needs to avoid hitting for power on offense and just settle on being a singles hitter with some gap power. The defense is ahead of the offense, and while he’s not as consistent as Alemais right now, he could have the skills to make it to Triple-A on defense alone.
Victor Ngoepe – Victor is really making this list for his last name. That’s not to say that he’s not a good defensive prospect. He definitely is, showing a lot of the same tools that eventually made his brother such a great defender. But there are other interesting lower level shortstops who I wouldn’t list here, like Rodolfo Castro in the DSL, just because listing those guys in the same group as Gift and Alemais is kind of unfair (and you could make the same argument for Valerio). Still, Victor makes it here because it’s easy to envision his defensive skills continuing to develop and get polished just like his brother, with the last name adding a bit of confidence to that prediction.
The Jordy Mercer Approach
When Jordy Mercer was drafted in 2008, the report on him was that he had the tools to stick at shortstop, but would largely be an offense-first guy. He does have some offensive ability, but the surprising thing is that it’s his defense now that drives most of his value. He made some big strides working with Clint Barmes on angles to the ball, which secured his spot as the starting shortstop of the future. His ability to hit some in the majors (.722 OPS as of this writing) combined with the defense makes him a starting option, until a better option comes along.
The hope for the Pirates is either that one of the defensive shortstops above will learn to hit, or learn to hit with consistency in some cases; or that one of their recent first round picks will improve the defense enough to match their offense, thus taking the Jordy Mercer approach.
Kevin Newman – Newman is the top prospect of the entire group, and the guy who you could place the “shortstop of the future” label on. He actually reminds me of Mercer in a way, as he’s an offense-first shortstop who needs to make the same adjustments defensively as Mercer. In fact, the Pirates have been using video of Mercer as a guide for Newman’s development, working with him this year on earlier set-up positions, and the best angles to take to the ball. I could see him taking the same approach as Mercer/Barmes, eventually joining the team to learn from Mercer, and eventually taking over the job with Mercer taking a backup role. That process could start as soon as next summer. If Newman can improve his defense the same way Mercer did, then his upside could be Mercer with more speed and better contact skills, leading to better overall numbers.
Cole Tucker – Tucker’s upside is similar to Newman, although he is more raw. That’s to be expected, as he’s about three years younger than Newman, and only one level lower. He’s got a .615 OPS in Bradenton this year, although watching him in person is a different story, as he makes hard contact and does a good job using the middle of the field when he puts the ball in play. He’s got a good approach at the plate, with good K/BB ratios. Defensively, he is doing a lot of the same work as Newman, and while he doesn’t have the best tools at shortstop, he is good enough that he can maximize his abilities with proper routes and jump times and stick at the position. The best case scenario here has the Pirates with two options who can play shortstop, with one playing second base, and both of them having the defense of Mercer and better offense.
And now, here is a quick recap of the top ten stories you might have missed this week.
10. Blake Cederlind, drafted in the fifth round in 2016, has been out with forearm tightness, but resumed throwing this week. I talked with him about the injury and his changeup development.
9. Chris Stewart will return to the Pirates on September 1st. Sean McCool updates his rehab process.
8. Now we’re getting into the section with the shortstop prospect features from this week. The first one is about Adrian Valerio.
7. Next up is Stephen Alemais, who got a promotion to West Virginia recently, and who Abigail Miskowiec wrote about this week.
6. Then there’s the Ngoepe brothers. Brian Peloza wrote about Gift’s journey to being on the verge of making the big leagues, and I wrote about his younger brother, Victor, who has the same strong defensive skills.
5. Nick Kingham took his rehab to Altoona, and will start on Monday. Sean McCool had a great interview with him on Saturday, while also getting input from Larry Broadway on the rehab plan.
4. David Freese started the week by signing an extension with the Pirates, putting him under contract for two more years, and under team control for three more years. Alan Saunders talked with Freese about why he signed, and I broke down the future roster after the Freese deal.
3. Austin Meadows is finally healthy from his hamstring issue, and starting to hit again in Indianapolis. He’s also playing left field, which Brian Peloza reports about.
2. Mitch Keller got a promotion to Bradenton this weekend, after another strong start in West Virginia. He will make his High-A debut on Tuesday.
1. Gerrit Cole will skip his start tomorrow and get checked up on in Los Angeles. Earlier in the week, Alan Saunders broke down his recent struggles, and I put them in perspective compared to his career. Obviously the injury, whatever it ends up being, would explain the recent slump.
