How good has Gregory Polanco been so far?
Among all hitters in baseball, he ranks 7th with a 2.4 WAR after tonight. He’s putting up a better OBP and slugging percentage than he ever did at any level in the minor leagues, and if you recall, he had some good years in the minors.
Let’s say that Polanco continues his current pace, and puts up 2.4 WAR every two months. By the end of the season, he would be on pace for a 7.2 WAR in his second full season. By comparison, Andrew McCutchen had a 5.5 WAR in his second full year. He had a 6.8 WAR the next year, and 8.4 after that.
Back in the 2014 Prospect Guide, which came out following the 2013 season, I said that Gregory Polanco looked like he could be as good or better than Andrew McCutchen. I don’t want to point to the results this year and say that this has already happened. McCutchen is off to a slow start, but I’m not ready to say that he’s no longer the Andrew McCutchen that we know. It’s possible that Polanco could be better than McCutchen this year, even if McCutchen reverts to his old self. That would say more about Polanco than it would about McCutchen.
But let’s look at that comparison from above. Both players were in their age 24 seasons in their second full year in the majors. It looks like Polanco is starting to break out a year earlier than McCutchen did. The scary thing here is that Polanco doesn’t turn 25 until mid-September. As good as he has been, I don’t think we’ve seen the best out of him yet.
It makes the pre-season extension well-timed, and perhaps that load off Polanco’s mind is helping him to post these breakout numbers (McCutchen had his breakout year right after signing his extension). The Pirates made some nice moves this off-season, bringing in John Jaso for first base, and putting together a pretty nice bench with Sean Rodriguez, Matt Joyce, and David Freese. They recently extended Francisco Cervelli, filling their catching need for the next few years. But the best move of all would easily be that Polanco extension, especially when you consider that the Pirates have him for seven more years, at a maximum of $61 M total.
At this rate, the calls for Polanco’s next extension might start this off-season.
**Polanco has been great. The offense has been great. The bench has been great. But something that hasn’t been great has been the pitching.
The Pirates will get some help in a few short weeks when Jameson Taillon comes up. I think Chad Kuhl could also join him. I’d be surprised if Tyler Glasnow arrives right away. But if the Pirates can get two of those guys from Triple-A, that should boost the rotation a bit, and in turn, give the bullpen a boost.
Right now, I’d say Jeff Locke is the top candidate to be removed from the rotation. If you look at the numbers, Locke falls far behind the other pitchers this year.
1. Juan Nicasio – 3.87 xFIP
2. Gerrit Cole – 3.98
3. Francisco Liriano – 4.17
4. Jon Niese – 4.20
5. Jeff Locke – 4.82
Then, if another starter comes up, Juan Nicasio would be my next pick to go. Sure, he’s got the best xFIP in the rotation right now, but he’s not trending in the right direction there. Here are the numbers for the month of May, minus Locke’s start tonight.
1. Jon Niese – 4.04 x FIP
2. Francisco Liriano – 4.13
3. Juan Nicasio – 4.15
4. Gerrit Cole – 4.34
5. Jeff Locke – 4.79
Nicasio is the perfect guy to move to the bullpen, taking over that sixth and/or seventh inning role. He can be a power reliever for one inning, or he can be a multi-inning guy. He would be the biggest boost that the bullpen could get this year.
Here’s the problem with the rotation though. It’s going to be easy to upgrade over Jeff Locke. It would be a bit more difficult to upgrade over the season numbers for Nicasio, but I think I trust the prospects to continue putting up those results more than Nicasio. The problem is you’ve got Cole and Liriano putting up numbers that are slightly below the league average, and it has only gotten worse this month.
Right now, the Pirates have no one pitching like a top of the rotation starter. You can’t expect the prospects to come up and fill that role. Even if those prospects come up and upgrade other spots in the rotation, the Pirates will still need improvement from Cole and Liriano, getting them to their previous numbers.
The good thing is that if the Pirates can see improvement in the rotation, while maintaining their strong offense, then you’re looking at one of the best teams in baseball this year.
**Josh Bell Showing Improved Defense at First Base, Improved Hitting Against Lefties. My feature on Josh Bell this evening, looking at the improvements he’s made with his defense (with video), along with some updates on his swing.
**Cole Tucker Showing Positive Signs in His Return to West Virginia. Abigail Miskowiec updates us on Cole Tucker, who is showing improved hitting in his second week in West Virginia, while maintaining his arm strength at shortstop after his labrum surgery.
**Pirates Place Watson on Paternity List, Caminero to DL, Scahill and Lobstein Recalled. A lot of bullpen moves today. The good news is that Watson will only be out a short time. As for Caminero, you hope that the Pirates can get him fixed, because right now something looks seriously wrong.
**Prospect Watch: Tyler Eppler Gets Knocked Around in Morning Start. Not the best start for Eppler, who entered the outing as the best starter for Altoona this season.
