PITTSBURGH – Sometimes it seems like you can never really enjoy an extension. For years, people ask if a certain player will be extended. They write off an extension way before it’s even a normal time for an extension to normally take place. Then the extension happens, and the focus immediately shifts to “Who’s next?”
Part of that is because transactions can be addictive, and once one comes through, you start looking forward to the next one. Another part of this is because you want to imagine every good player on the team staying together for the long-term, which is probably why the third question of Polanco’s press conference tonight was about extending Andrew McCutchen — even though he still has three years left on his current deal. And then part of this is because writers will take an easy extension topic when it falls to them, knowing it’s a long season, and it’s a gift to not have to think up a new topic that night.
Wait a minute…
Yeah, that’s exactly what’s going on here. It was less than a month ago that I was telling people they were reacting too early when they were writing off a future Polanco extension, all because he hadn’t signed after his first full season in the Majors. So the last thing I want to do is start any early hype on extensions for other players. But I’ll take the easy topic tonight, with the disclaimer that I’m just going to break down where everyone falls on the extension probability scale.
For the purpose of this article, we’ll look at the current active roster, plus top prospects who will arrive this year.
Already Extended
Andrew McCutchen
Josh Harrison
Starling Marte
Gregory Polanco
Chris Stewart
If you’re suggesting an extension for any of these guys, you might have a problem. The one situation where it makes sense is McCutchen, but even then you’ve got a guy who is three years from free agency. A lot can happen in that three years. Three years ago, everyone thought the Pirates were never going to win, had a bad farm system, had a front office that needed to be cleaned out, and when they picked up a pitcher, people’s analysis didn’t stop at “Ray Searage”. With two of the top outfield prospects in all of baseball sitting in Altoona, there’s reason for the Pirates to wait on McCutchen for now. No matter when they sign him, they’ll need to look for a discount over his market value. That won’t change by waiting.
Prospects on the Way
Jeff Locke
Jordy Mercer
Francisco Cervelli
Jon Niese
John Jaso
Mark Melancon
All Middle Relievers and Bench Players
Locke and Niese will eventually be replaced by the starters who arrive this year, and Niese has two option years, so that’s basically an extension if the Pirates want it. Jaso will be replaced by Josh Bell, possibly by mid-season. Jordy Mercer has three years remaining, and the Pirates have a lot of talented middle infield prospects in their system. I wouldn’t be surprised if Kevin Newman is the starting shortstop by the end of the 2018 season, with Mercer playing a Clint Barmes mentor role. I could actually see Mercer being extended or re-signed, just to play that veteran bench player role.
That leaves Francisco Cervelli and Mark Melancon. In each case, I don’t think we’re seeing an extension, since they’re so close to free agency. The Pirates have Elias Diaz to take over for Cervelli, and Tony Watson ready to take over for Melancon. If they’re bringing these guys back, it would be through free agency after they test the market, and not an extension.
Playing Out the Current Contract
Francisco Liriano
Jung-ho Kang
This is kind of like the first group. These guys just signed new deals, and they’re probably going to play out their remaining years before hitting the market. They’ve already been paid, so they don’t need a big payday, which is a driving motivation for a lot of extensions. Once again, these are guys you try to bring back as free agents after their deals, since they probably reach free agency and test the market. Also, in Kang’s case, he has four years of control remaining.
Scott Boras Clients
Gerrit Cole
Josh Bell
Just getting these guys out of the way. You’d want to extend them, but the reality is that they’re probably not signing extensions.
The Extension Candidates
Tony Watson
Juan Nicasio
Alen Hanson
Elias Diaz
Jameson Taillon
Tyler Glasnow
Watson and Nicasio are in different leagues. An extension for Watson wouldn’t buy out many years, and would be more about cost control. That’s something you’d want to do if he’s going to remain a big part of your bullpen, and possibly a bigger part going forward if Melancon leaves.
Nicasio could be an extension candidate, but you run into a problem. You don’t know he’s an extension candidate until you see what he can do this year. And then, he’s a year away from free agency, so he’d probably test the market. I think this is a Liriano/Happ situation, where if he breaks out, you try to get him in free agency for a three-year deal.
With the rest of the top prospects, the Pirates should try to get extensions early, just like they did with Polanco before he arrived. That usually doesn’t work, so probably all of these cases will see the player waiting until he has at least a year and a half in the majors, and maybe more than that. I’m only including the top ten prospects here, and not guys like Steven Brault, Trevor Williams, Chad Kuhl, etc. With those guys, you’d think about them only after they came up and showed what they could do in the majors.
Bottom line? Polanco might be the last extension we see for a few years, outside of a short-term Watson extension, which would be close to the equivalent of a free agent deal. But that’s only because the Pirates have so many guys either locked up for a long time, or set to arrive in the majors, and two or three years away from any serious extension talk.
**I’ll be in Pittsburgh for the final game of the series tomorrow against the Cardinals. Then I go to Altoona for a five game series, followed by returning home to Bradenton for a series there. We’ve got full season previews for all of the minor league teams going up Thursday, with profiles on the top ten prospects at each level. Be sure to subscribe to get all of this great content, plus daily minor league coverage that you can’t find anywhere else.
**Pirates Bullpen Shuts Down the Cardinals, Jordy Mercer Walks it Off For 6-5 Win. Analysis from tonight’s game, where the Pirates took the first series of the year against the Cardinals.
**Will Gregory Polanco’s Extension Be a Steal? Putting Extensions in Perspective. A recap of Polanco’s press conference, along with a look at the idea that these deals are always a steal.
**Pirates are Loaded With Young Talent. The Pirates were well represented in the Under-25 talent list.
**Pirates 2016 Opening Day Payroll Exceeds $100 M For the First Time. Breaking down the 2016 payroll, which we keep updated all year.
**Francisco Liriano Has Goal of 200 Innings, But Is It Necessary? Sean McCool looks at why a 200 inning goal for Liriano might not fit his style.
