On Tuesday afternoon, Dan Farnsworth from Fangraphs posted his list of the top prospects in the Pirates’ system. Their list went 22 deep, as they rank the players based on future value, which is similar to the tiered ranking we use in our book.
Future value is the same as the 20-80 scouting scale to rank players. For example, they have Tyler Glasnow as the top prospect in the system, just like everyone else who ranked the prospects. Glasnow received a 65 ranking, which would make him an All-Star type starter, or a #2/#3 starter on the staff. That’s not to be confused with their ceiling, which has Glasnow as a future ace. Future Value is the middle ground that a certain player will likely attain, as most prospects don’t reach their ceiling. The more certain a prospect is, the closer the Future Value will be to his ceiling.
This list has a surprise ranking near the top, with Reese McGuire ranked third overall after Glasnow and Austin Meadows. Farnsworth liked how McGuire finished his season in the Arizona Fall League this year, looking like a different player at the plate. We took that into account with our ranking of McGuire, but only to show that he has the potential to hit Major League pitching, not to push him up the charts. The AFL by itself is a small sample size, so the finish to an AFL season is even smaller, especially for catchers, who split their time with two other receivers.
If you saw McGuire’s at-bats this Spring Training, he looked like the same batter we saw during the regular season. Showing a strong ability to put the ball in play, but nothing hit with any authority. If he hits like the player we saw during the end of the AFL season, then combined with his defense, you would be hard-pressed not to rank him high in this system. However, he’s headed to Altoona this season, so there shouldn’t be high expectations for his season on offense. Especially not at his age, and with his stats the last two seasons. He will be one of the youngest players in the Eastern League on Opening Day.
After McGuire, Farnsworth has Josh Bell, Harold Ramirez and Jameson Taillon. No surprises there as we saw those three in a row on a few lists, usually with Ramirez behind Taillon, but not always. All three of them have the same Future Value(55), which puts them ahead of the next group of players.
That next group of nine players is actually a bigger step down from the previous three, all getting 45 rankings(with some either 45+, or 45-50). Probably the only surprise in here is that Elias Diaz ended up ten spots lower than McGuire. That might have more merit if Diaz’s elbow discomfort turns into a bigger issue, but that likely wasn’t taken into account with the proximity of this list being published, combined with the timing of Diaz’s injury announcement(plus there is no mention of it, and it would be purely speculation at this point). There are a lot of similarities between Diaz and McGuire, with the latter having a big advantage in age, while Diaz is on the doorstep of the majors. It’s tough to see such a big difference between the two at this time.
The last group of players has a 40 Future Value and is led by Cole Tucker. I think it’s fine to use some caution at this point while ranking him. There is no guarantee his arm strength will still be good enough for shortstop, though the Pirates intend on keeping him there. Something else that isn’t mentioned often is that his first pro season was ended by a thumb injury which required minor surgery, so there should be some doubts as to whether he can stay healthy at this point. If he proves he is healthy once he returns, and continues to progress like he was last year, then he will easily secure a spot in the top ten for the Pirates next year.
No surprises in this last group, other than possibly the 45 rating for Chad Kuhl’s fastball, while ranking him as the 21st ranked prospect. I don’t think many people would rate a sinker with command, that has a lot of movement and touches 97-98 mph, as slightly below average, so a more reasonable grade might have got him ranked higher. Farnsworth sees him more as a solid bullpen arm, and while I disagree with that assessment at this point, I do agree that being a bullpen arm should get you ranked lower on the list.
You can check out the rest of the list in the link at the top, complete with ratings on their top 22 prospects in the system, plus some thoughts on other players.
