Last night, Ben Zobrist signed a four-year, $56 M deal with the Chicago Cubs. The fallout to that deal seems to be that the second base market is opening up. Today there were rumors that two different teams are looking at Neil Walker as a trade option, although in each case “option” is about the extent of the rumor for now.
According to Mike Puma of the New York Post, the Mets are looking at Walker among other players after missing out on Zobrist. He said they have “some interest” in Walker, but are skeptical a trade will happen. Bill Brink also hears that the Mets are interested.
Heard same as @NYPost_Mets, Mets considering Neil Walker after Ben Zobrist picked Cubs.
— Bill Brink (@Bill_Brink2) December 9, 2015
The Angels are the other team with reported interest, according to Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times. They currently have Johnny Giavotella, but could be looking at an upgrade. Walker was listed as one option, along with Kolten Wong, Brandon Drury, Chris Owings, and Brandon Phillips. I’m not sure how many of those guys are actually being shopped by their teams, and how many are guys who just make sense to mention in trade rumors, without info on whether they are actually available. But it shows that Walker might not be the only option for these teams.
The Walker market could extend beyond the Mets and Angels. One factor here is that Daniel Murphy and Howie Kendrick are still free agents, which leaves some options available. But a team that doesn’t want a commitment of more than 1-2 years (like the Mets) could decide that Walker is the better approach.
UPDATE 12:08 PM: Add the Nationals to the mix of teams interested, according to Jon Heyman:
Mets and nats, runnersup for zobrist, are both looking at Neil walker
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) December 9, 2015
UPDATE 12:45 PM: A few more Walker rumors, including Rob Biertempfel saying the Angels are very serious.
Sources: #Angels have "very serious" interest in #Pirates Neil Walker. #Dodgers also interested, though maybe to lesser degree.
— RobBiertempfel (@RobBiertempfel) December 9, 2015
#Angels are also among teams that have shown a serious interest in #Pirates 2B Neil Walker. And Halos have pitching to give.
— Mike DiGiovanna (@MikeDiGiovanna) December 9, 2015
The Angels seem like the perfect team for a Walker trade, just because of the excess of pitching. I’ve seen about six media members saying that Hector Santiago seems like a good fit, although nothing concrete about what the Pirates might be looking at from the Angels.
UPDATE 1:58 PM: Bill Brink is reporting that a discussion with the Mets involved Jon Niese. The 29-year-old lefty has one year left on his contract, plus two team options with buyouts. He would cost $30M over the next three years if they chose to keep him. Niese made 29 start and four relief appearances this year, posting a 4.13 ERA and 1.40 WHIP, with 113 strikeouts in 176.2 innings. He has made 169 starts over the last six years and he has a 3.91 ERA over 1068.1 innings during his career. Niese posted a 3.40 ERA in both 2012 and 2014.
UPDATE 2:49 PM: The rumors to the Mets are picking up some traction, although it seems that the Mets are saying the asking price is too high.
Source: #Mets indeed discussing Niese-for-Walker with #Pirates. First: @BiertempfelTrib.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) December 9, 2015
#Mets talking to the #Pirates about Neil Walker. As of an hour ago, asking price was too high, according to #Mets source
— Kristie Ackert (@ByKristieAckert) December 9, 2015
I’d have a hard time believing that it’s just Niese for Walker, and if it is, that would explain the “high asking price” rumor. At his best, Niese has been a 2+ WAR pitcher, and is under control for three more years at a reasonable salary. He’s coming off a down year, but that shouldn’t sink his value. Walker is a 2.6 WAR second baseman, under control for one season. A straight up deal would clearly favor the Pirates.
UPDATE 2:56 PM: The Mets look to be closing in on Walker.
Just checked w/ #mets source again Walker for Neise not done "but is in the works."
— Kristie Ackert (@ByKristieAckert) December 9, 2015
Second #mets source confirms #Mets are closing in a deal for Walker
— Kristie Ackert (@ByKristieAckert) December 9, 2015
UPDATE 3:09 PM: Kristie Ackert clarifies her tweets, saying it’s not close:
#Mets source called to clarify. "definitely in the works, not close to being done"…..I Apologize for any confusion.
— Kristie Ackert (@ByKristieAckert) December 9, 2015
UPDATE 3:20 PM: A lot of reports that make this deal sound close, or at least a good chance of getting completed.
Hearing Walker to #Mets close #Pirates
— Joel Sherman (@Joelsherman1) December 9, 2015
Not done but source says Mets-Pirates making progress on Niese for Walker.
— Marc Carig (@MarcCarig) December 9, 2015
Person briefed on talks said would be surprised if Walker to #Mets did not get finalized but said not 100 pct sure it is at finish line
— Joel Sherman (@Joelsherman1) December 9, 2015
UPDATE 3:22 PM: Looks like the deal is done.
Confirmed Walker to #Mets pending medical review, small other matters
— Joel Sherman (@Joelsherman1) December 9, 2015
Assuming it’s a straight up trade here, as Buster Olney tweeted that the deal would be a swap for Jon Niese.
UPDATE 3:25 PM: Rosenthal says it’s Walker for Niese.
Source: #Mets agree to trade Niese to #Pirates for Walker, pending medical reviews.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) December 9, 2015
Some analysis to come shortly.
UPDATE 3:27 PM: Some quick thoughts on Niese. He was a 2+ WAR pitcher every year from 2011-14, with a combined 3.70 ERA and 3.60 xFIP during that time, along with a 7.1 K/9 and a 49.6% ground ball rate. He had a down year in 2015, although it wasn’t horrible, with a 4.13 ERA and a 4.11 xFIP. As we know, the Pirates have had success getting pitchers back to their best values. If they can get Niese back to his pre-2015 numbers, this would be a huge deal for them.
Walker was projected to make $10.7 M in arbitration, and Niese is making $9.5 M guaranteed in his deal. He makes $9 M in 2016, with a $10 M option and a $500,000 buyout in 2017. If that option is picked up, he has a $11 M option and a $500,000 buyout in 2018. If he gets back to that 2+ WAR a year pitcher, then having him for up to three years and $30 M would be a huge value. It’s also possible they could deal him in the future after the prospects in the minors start to arrive.
It looks like this is a one for one swap:
It's a straight deal Walker for Niese. #mets #Pirates
— Kristie Ackert (@ByKristieAckert) December 9, 2015
The flip side to all of this is now the Pirates have a hole at second base that needs to be filled. It’s also going to be interesting to see what the Pirates do in the rotation. For example, this deal could allow them to sign another starter, then deal someone like Charlie Morton for Mitch Moreland. For now, the rotation is Gerrit Cole, Francisco Liriano, Jon Niese, Charlie Morton, and Jeff Locke, until Tyler Glasnow and Jameson Taillon arrive.
UPDATE 6:18 PM: The Pirates make the trade official. Some quotes from Neal Huntington and Frank Coonelly:
“This is a true baseball trade in the sense that it helps fill an immediate need at the Major League level for each club,” said Huntington. “We have liked Jonathon for some time now. He is an established veteran left handed starter who will fill an immediate role in our rotation, with the potential for two additional years under contract.”
“We greatly appreciate Neil and all he has done for our club, both on the field and in our community,” said Pirates President Frank Coonelly. He has always represented his hometown team with a great sense of pride and passion. For that we thank him and wish him and his family nothing but success as he continues his career in New York.”
