Pedro Alvarez Believes the Time is Right For a Trade

According to Jon Heyman on CBS Sports, Pedro Alvarez has told people he believes this is the right time for a trade. Heyman points to Camden Yards and the Baltimore Orioles as a possible destination. The park is kind to left-handed hitters and Alvarez obviously has more value as a DH than anywhere on defense. The problem is that his defense limits the trade options for the Pirates and Alvarez is a low on base player, with no speed and a poor track record against left-handed pitchers, posting a .601 OPS over 623 plate appearances during his career. The other factor is that he has one year left until free agency and he will likely receive approximately $8.1M through arbitration according to MLBTR.

All that adds up to someone that the Pirates would like to move, but could have trouble finding anything of value in return. Heyman reported two weeks ago that the Pirates have Alvarez on the trading block, but as Tim Williams pointed out, his low overall value makes him more of a non-tender candidate than a trade candidate, as he could probably be signed for less than his arbitration figure.

  • Ooops “Locke.”

  • Either Pedro and Morton for Mike Trout, or Pedro, Morton, and Locker for Bryce Harper.

    That’s so one sided favoring whichever gets “El Toro!” 😉

    And, yes, if it comes down to it, I’d throw in Florimon, Morse and S-Rod.

    Happy Thanks Giving Day, everyone.

  • With the A’s reacquiring Jed Lowrie, it’s possible Danny Valencia might be available for corner IF help, although they’d be more inclined to move Brett Lawrie. Valencia likely isn’t a long term solution, but in the Bucs’ current situation, he could be very useful for the 2016 season. Some package including Pedro (likely at a discount) should be possible.

  • Pedro has more value with the PBC than anywhere else. $8MM/yr is expensive, especially for a budget consicous team such as the Bucs. But, Pedro is the only power hitter the Pirates have.He’d be missed.

    I’ve never been a fan of his, but as far as I know he’s never bad mouthed his teammates, management or the city. He didn’t publicly complain when moved off 3rd or moved to 1st.

    He’s not worth the expected arb amount, but he does have value…at least till July when Bell is likely to come up.

    • Pedro technically (based on WAR) provides no value to the Pirates. Everything he adds through hitting is taken away through his fielding. I would also add anecdotally that his power only seems to show up with no one on base and never seem to impact the game

      • Oh come on. I point of Pedro’s faults just as much as anyone, but the “Pedro only does good when it doesnt matter” is just wrong.

        For his career:
        Low leverage situations- .235 AVG with 64 HRs and 128 RBI in 1361 PAs
        medium leverage- .237 AVG with 49 HRs and 150 RBI in 1077 PAs
        high leverage- .238 AVG with 18 HRs and 123 RBI in 346 PAs

        RBI wise, he’s actually been a very quality hitter in medium and high leverage spots over his whole career. For HRs, he’s about on pace in all categories for roughly 60-70 HRs per every 1400 PAs. Never impacts a game expect that he does as much as most players.

        • Really enjoyed this discussion with you, buddy. Have a good holiday.

          • Mutual feeling, have a good turkey day. And the subsequent “go shopping and trample someone” day if you are into that.

  • I wonder if this is Boras move. Build some bad blood, try to force Neil by making it clear Perdo doesn’t want to return. They would love to get him to the AL prior to his big free agent year. It would look a lot better than a bad fielding, platooned 1B replaced by a rookie mid-year. It would be hard to produce his annual marketing brochure based on that…

  • There would be zero justification to support boras or Pedro saying that he was not given a “fair shake” by the Pirates.

  • Wait! It’s not midnight yet! Pedro could retract this statement and then it is null and void…or is it 12:02am?

  • Pedro, you have never been more right.

  • Look its really pretty simple. The PBC does not want a player who is going to cost 8M next year and cant play a defensive position. The rest of the league knows that and therefore is not going to offer anything in a trade and obligate that team to pay him 8M. The AL teams that want him to DH will let the pirates non-tender him and sign him for less.

    • Exactly my point about having to tender him before teams will seriously talk trade. This has happened before. We know how this ends.

  • Of course Pedro thinks it’s a good time for a trade. He is about to be non tendered. At least it sure seems like he is. He would make far more going through arbitration then he will be able to negotiate once the Pirates let him go. From the Pirates perspective, the best time to have traded him was two years ago. 20/20 hindsight.

    It really is a shame that Pedro will never reach his potential as a Pirate if he ever does at all. I think it’s 60/40 he turns it around next year. I think the coaching staff has no confidence in him and that he absolutely needs a change of scenery. Whether it’s in his head or just some type of bad chemistry thing with the coaching staff, I just don’t see him ever becoming much of anything as a Pittsburgh Pirate.

    Despite his shortcomings, he is a good offensive player, not a great one. I think the Pirates will miss his production more than they think. Of course, that really depends upon who they get to replace him. I would hope that the goal is to get a better first baseman then Pedro rather than a similar player who is less expensive. Honestly, I’m not sure that there is a better replacement out there. We will just have to see how that turns out.

  • I think you bring him back. He has to get better defensively at least a little and where are you going to replace his power production? I think it makes more sense to just bring Pedro and Walker back and go for it all again in 2016. I think getting one more year at 25-35 Hrs from Pedro is worth more than dealing him for next to nothing

  • It’s unbelievable to me that this guy will be non-tendered. Crazy system in baseball. People five years ago thought he was a player you could have built a team around. Can ‘t believe he forgot how to catch and throw.

  • No, I mean that I think there’s a blind spot for some folks like Cameron who take the LOL DINGERZ meme too far.

  • I was shocked his lefty ops was that good. He helped that out last year.

  • From the latest FanGraphs chat with Dave Cameron:

    Compton: Does Pedro Alvarez have any value or is he more of a non-tender candidate at this point?

    Dave Cameron: He’s a non-tender. I’m not sure why there’s so much talk about trading him. He’s not good.

  • John/Tim/Anyone- Would the Pirates bid on this Hwang?

  • Who are “the people” Alvarez has spoken with ?

  • Kill it in the gym Pedro.

  • BuccosFanStuckinMD
    November 25, 2015 1:44 pm

    I agree with Pedro – good time to trade him….

  • I would be highly disappointed in the FO if Pedro was designated. You can hit me with all the #’s behind it, but I’d rather keep him for the $ than see him go for nothing.
    Think about it – even if you force him to stay at that price – you still have the option of moving him later in the year. You don’t just drop that kind of power for nothing – think of Mark Reynolds for example. Same kind of guy. Yes, I agree that he’s more palatable at $4 mil than $8 – but you still have to acquire it if you don’t have it and in this case we have it already.
    Another example of this kind of guy is Colby Rasmus – better defender but worse bat two years ago, but it came around last year and next thing he’s getting a QO. Pedro can move back to 3rd along with rotating to 1b until Kang returns – then you can see how things look about a trade.

    • Mark Reynolds brings plus glove to both corner infield positions – Pedro does not. I love Pedro – but this is a bad marriage and a divorce is a good thing for both parties. The HRs and RBIs will be missed. I will never understand why he did not take the move to 1st base as an opportunity – get in better shape – play winter ball to get some feel for the position – get some coaching on the position.

      Still think the Yankees would be a fit – he could kill that short porch and hit 40+ for the next 10 years.

      • Mark Reynolds? Plus glove?! Where in the world did you get that idea?!?

        • He had a plus DRS at 1st base [2] the last two years – bad year last year at 3rd [-5] after a +4 the year before with the Brewers – BTW – no Pirate infielder other than Kang [4] and Jay Hay [2] had a positive DRS last year

          Pedro BTW had a -14 DRS at first base last year…
          The year before when he was benched for poor defense at third he had a DRS of -5

          • Of the 37 guys who had at least 400 PAs or more at 1B, a 2 DRS puts Reynolds at 17. So at best average. He’s far from a plus glove at any spot.

            Mixing positions for DRS isnt what the metric is for, and makes it seem like a guy posting a 4 DRS at 3B is the same as a 4 DRS 1Bmen. They are not the same in defensive worth.

            A -5 at 3B is poor in any given year. He moved from 3B to 1B because he was poor at 3B, and hasnt really ever been more than average at 1B. The fact that Pedro is poor on defense doesnt make mentioning Reynolds smart at all.

            • So Morse is better?

              • On defense? More of a 0-1 DRS guy than a 1-2 guy. Slightly lesser.

                But advocating for Mark Reynolds overall is just plain dumb. He’d no upgrade overall, with that sterling -.1 WAR he’s coming off of and a projected .1 WAR next year. Michael Morse might be as bad as him, but isnt likely to be worse and offers an upside it appears Reynolds have waved goodbye to on offense.

                In a world of crappy 1B options, pick 1 of Morse or Reynolds but not both. We already have one, so find a decent backup and await Josh Bell. Otherwise its complaining that one crappy 1Bmen is X level of crappy compared to another crappy option.

      • They have ARod to DH. No need for Pedro.

      • My biggest grip with Pedro was that the Pirates brought in Kevin Young to work with him at a mini-camp and he did not show up. Matter of fact he has never shown to work on defense, instead choosing to Boras himself. Talk about a mistake. If he was just average at first he’d make several more $MM per and be a average attractive free agent after 2016.

        • JoseGuillensArm
          November 25, 2015 5:56 pm

          Say what you want about his actual defensive stats, but it is just flat out wrong to say he didn’t try to learn/succeed at the position. All you armchair coaches with this “insider” information need a reality check; his occupation is baseball player. He was out there working every day trying to get better, even if you didn’t have a Root report from Robbie Incziwhocares telling you so. He didn’t just take the winter off either as people seem to think, he made his own training/prep program, like most major leaguers and stuck to that. Yes he struggled defensively, but it was not due to lack of effort or drive.

          Oh and please enlighten me on how someone can “Boras” themselves, whatever that means?

          • Just because he got his picture taken at Vanderbilt at David Price Camp doesn’t mean he was in this great playing shape. There’s tons of stuff on the interwebz about his conditioning and unwillingness to play winterball.

            I didn’t think there was any doubt hes put weight on in his career and not all of it was good weight either.

            No matter what Tim, John, Sawchik, Dejan, Biertempfel or anyone here or on another blog wants to tell me, conditioning is one of his issues. And it’s easily the most correctable.

            • That second to last sentence is kinda crazy, dont you think? You just admitted that no matter what 4-5 guys with a crapload more actual interaction with the team/players all say, you are going to run with your assumption.

              Dislike Pedro’s game, plenty to dislike, but thats refusing to accept any info but what fits a narrative. From sources that dont all have the same view of the team/its moves. At some point, dont we maybe accept that Pedro isnt an overweight lazy guy who just refuses to work hard and maybe accept the chance that he’s just a guy who has limitations to his game?

              • My point is about his lack of physical fitness. Period.

                • Right, and i stated that that was a point that was literally based on nothing but “he got bigger”. You even admit that others with weekly access to the team have refuted the idea that Pedro is lazy or out of shape, but that you just dont care about that.

                  Your point is about lack of fitness, but its been refuted and you refuse to care. If even a few reporters were running stories that Pedro was clearly out of shape or causing issues with his weight, im on board. In a town where reporters dont shy away from running stories about players having issues (Kang is a bad influence in ST) Pedro and his fitness is a non story.

                  • Give it awhile, Luke. Let’s see what’s said when he leaves.

                    And I don’t need Tim to tell me what I see with my own eyes. And if you can’t see that guys lost range over the last two years, I don’t know what to tell you.

                    But again, of all his drawbacks, his physical fitness is the easiest to fix.

                    • I guess my point is, your eyes lie to you on a daily basis. For me, i try to accept the fact that my eyes dont tell me near enough to pass that level of judgement on a guy i’ve never met and only see on TV.

                      For me, its entirely possible my eyes dont tell me even half the story and that Pedro could easily be in shape and just not certain definitions of perfectly fit. Still runs relatively well, still isnt really all that overweight. He added weight, but my eyes have 0 factual ways to know what kind of weight and history says a crapload of players will fill out the older they get.

                      Labeling Pedro out of shape and unwilling to work hard in that regard is based on little but “what we see”, and your eyes they can a lie a lot.

                    • You can’t see that Pedro is in poor baseball shape? He needs to lose weight, man. Anyone can see that.

                      So let’s get this straight, you feel him losing weight would have zero benefit to him? It would make him better in every category. He would be faster on the basepaths, add bat speed and have more range in the field.

                    • Never did i say losing weight would have zero benefit, i said that the assumption that Pedro is out of shape is a bit dumb since we as fans dont actually know anything but “what we see” and its far from clear Pedro is some type of fat slob.

                      Bat speed also doesnt correlate to the size of your waist line, thats not how you generate bat speed. Running with this idea that Pedro is overweight is based on nothing but what we see, and i dont “see” anything clearly showing Pedro’s weight causes him to be “out of shape”. Is he in as good a shape as a middle IFer or OFer? Nope. But he’s in plenty fine shape overall.

                      Pedro is lazy and fat was a tired notion that started years ago and hasnt stopped. Its just twisted into new ways of going “Pedro isnt doing all he can to be his best” without cause for that.

                    • Another baseball genius at work I see. Yeah, I am sure that if David Ortiz, Albert Pujols or Prince Fielder were in better shape, they would increase their bat speed. That one is too funny.

                    • Range, or lack of it, wasn’t his problem at all, genius. If your eyes told you that, you had better be getting corrective surgery soon.

                    • Your wife likes my eyes.

  • “with no speed” I slightly disagree here though in the fact
    that I think he is a pretty smart base runner… at least in
    comparison to some other players we have.

  • Well, if that’s his attitude, might as go ahead and trade him…

    If not, he’ll probably end up playing apathetic defense and swinging at anything…can’t have that.

    • Dont see any indication of that. A player realizing its likely in his best interest to move on doesnt mean he’d suddenly show up and be a problem for the team or ignore what they ask from him.

      If anything, credit should be given to Pedro for how he has handled himself the last year. Had no problem with a move to 1B, had no problem with the team making it clear they’d like to upgrade over him, and rather nicely said “yeah, a trade might be best.” Pedro handled this rather professionally when he could have (or Boras could have) made it a bigger issue.

  • Good bye, some ppl fell in love w the long ball & they are fun to watch. But the D or lack there of @1st killed this team this year. Not to many teams pull their best HR hitter in the 7th/8th inning w only a 1 or 2 run lead. He was a distraction to the team.

  • Also should be no surprise Boras is angling him towards the Orioles, since they have another one of his clients about to leave for free agency.

    Chris Davis came to the O’s a career .247/.299/.453 (90 wRC+) hitter and left with a hundred million dollar contract after slashing .258/.341/.527 (133 wRC+). Interestingly, they increased his fly ball percentage more than five point and hiss pull rate more than ten points. Didn’t mess around with line drive-oppo approach like the Pirates have preached to Alvarez.

    • “So basically Pedro, what we want is you to pull the ball and hit it in the air a ton. Trust us, this ballpark will help you a bit”.

      • And you know what, it’s not a bad idea. Now that kind of change doesn’t come just by approach, they’ll have to move him closer to the plate and add more loft to his swing, but maximizing the strengths of a flawed but prodigiously powered hitter makes more sense to me than trying to make him something he’s not.

        Nobody should expect Alvarez to become the next Davis, but a platoon version? He’s an easy .260/.350/.500 hitter against RHP if they can get his fly ball rate up to 40%.

        • I think you could expect him to hit 30 homers+ as a platoon player if what you say actually happened/was actualized.

      • It’d warm my heart to see his additions to the little plaques they have in the ground for all of the homers that have landed in the right field concourse.

        • Beautiful ball park, isn’t it? I love watching from that patio out there.

          • Indeed, I’d probably give it a strong bronze behind PNC and Pac Bell. And I greatly appreciate that the Eutaw St concourse is left open most of the time so anyone can wander in and get a feel for the ballpark even when there isn’t a game going on (that’s actually how I first discovered those plaques, after having attended several games there and never noticing them before).

            • First item on my “to do” list when moving to the east coast was see a game there. Just gorgeous.

      • Whole division suits him.

        • Though not so much for winning. BAL has talent, but that division might not be fun to play in from a division title standpoint with BOS stocked full of young talent, the Blue Jays apparently all in for a few years, and whatever the Yankees muster to pay for going forward.

          • You know he’s never played at Fenway? And some of his interleague, AL ballpark splits are pretty good.

            Really think this dude is going off.

            • Good luck. Pedro has been incredibly consistent in his career on offense. At best, he gets more loft in his swing and increases power a bit against RHP.

              But that still sitting as an either platoon player or 115-120 wRC+ guy. Going off for Pedro still puts him as a non terrific DH. I like Pedro, i hope he does well, but it takes a lot for me to see Pedro suddenly become something more than a .240-.250 low OBP power hitter with marginal defense.

              • Cant argue any of that. But I do think getting him away from a mitt might really help him between the ears…under his hat.

              • What is his actual value based on WAR if you remove defense from the equation for a DH

                • He gave back 23 runs on defense last year, including positional adjustment.

                  Positional adjustment for the DH is 15 runs, I believe, which means with the same offense and playing time he’d be worth about 1 WAR.

                  Coincidentally, some argue those positional adjustments should be updated to reflect the current offensive environment, at which point his value increases by a bit less than a win. Essentially a 1.5 WAR hitter without any offensive improvement.


                  • Along with upgrades for offensive environment, there is enough data to suggest players who move into a full time DH role on average actually see some dip in some offensive areas. Not sure its wise to assume Pedro has any offensive improvement as it stands right now.

                    Id throw Pedro at about 1 WAR as a DH.

                    • Fault me for nit-picking, but that’s most certainly *not* what the data says.

                      When aggregating the data the result is a net loss, but this is far from universal and regardless, should have basis in logic. What logic dictates that Pedro Alvarez would perform *worse* at the plate by *not* having to deal with massive issues in the field is beyond me.

                      From Lichtman himself “Similar to the pinch hitter, the most likely explanation for this is that the DH is not as physically (and perhaps mentally) prepared for each PA as a player who is constantly engaged in the game. As well, the DH may be slightly injured or tired, especially if he is normally a position player.”

                      This is one of those smartest-guy-in-the-room pet peeves of mine. End rant.

                • As stated elsewhere, as a DH many guys see actual decreases on offense. wOBA goes down on average for guys who make the shift from a position to full time DH work.

                  Pedro could, if he improves his offense and plays 0 time in the field, be above 1 WAR but likely never hit 2 (he’d have to be Pujols-like, and i dont think he gets 150 games AND hits that well). For me, i see him as a likely 1 WAR DH type.

                  • “As stated elsewhere, as a DH many guys see actual decreases on offense. wOBA goes down on average for guys who make the shift from a position to full time DH work.”

                    Thank you for restating my point for me.

                  • Thanks Luke, appreciate that. So basically, as a dh his value is probably somewhere around 6 million a year as is without him having any value on the field. Can we send Alvarez and Melancon to Baltimore for Steve Pearce and a prospect or two?

                    • Pearce is a FA. Along with that, not sure BAL will go closer shopping this offseason. BAL might see a back end SP as a nice deal sweetener though. Pedro+Morton where PGH eats half of Morton’s salary might get BAL to cough up a better prospect type.

                      Then again, BAL losing Davis opens up plenty of money for them to just go get a mid rotation type to fill out their rotation.

    • Unless the O’s actually offer something, I don’t see him going there. If he’s tendered, he’s much more likely to be traded for someone else’s problem. Trumbo/Loney/LaRoche come to mind with a minor prospect or cash to make up contract difference.

      • BAL has a few relief type arms in the minors. Guys low enough in status that BAL likely wont hate giving them up, but close enough to the majors to present PGH with reasons for pursuit.

        Guys like Tim Berry, Jason Garcia, or Jon Keller. All 15-18 in the Orioles system, with Garcia and Berry possible options to be in a big league bullpen next year.

        If PGH just wants to get what it can for Pedro, and BAL wants Pedro but for a low price, a 1-1 deal of Pedro for Berry/Garcia seemingly makes sense for both sides.

        Garcia provides more potential closer like future (thanks to more velo with movement and a good enough slider) while Berry is a lefty with enough of a mixture of FB-CB-CH to sit in a 7th or 8th inning role.

      • Do you get the impression that Huntington is looking to replace one marginally expensive contract for a relatively unproductive player with another?

        I don’t.

        • I don’t think he’ll do a one-way change-of-scenery deal, either…as in: ‘here’s someone who should play well for your club…we have no use for him, he’s free…take’m.’ If that’s NH’s attitude, Pedro will just be non-tendered and the Bucs won’t be on the line for his salary if there are no takers.

          So, yeah, if the Pirates tender him and the O’s actually offer something of value in return…I can see a trade there. (And, by value, I mean relative to Pedro’s ability and expected production level). If the team commits to his salary and something worthwhile isn’t offered, my guess is it’ll end up being a mutual change-of-scenery swap.

          • I think the expectation is a trade would be consummated – or at least agreement in principal reached – before the tender deadline. I would be surprised if the FO were to tender Pedro a contract on the speculative hope of finding a trade partner; if they did, it would be a signal that they are still moderately ok with keeping Pedro around for 2016.

            • Guess I wasn’t being clear in my thoughts…sorry, at work.

              If the Pirates do tender, I don’t see it as…oh, crap, now we gotta get something for the guy. If they commit, they’re basically saying they’re going into camp with him as the projected 1B’man.

              If that happens, and he still gets traded, I see that as a mutual change-of-scenery swap.

              That said, unless the Pirates are offered something adequate for Pedro, I’d assume they’re going tender him. I think he has value, but the Bucs would be foolish just to give him away in lieu of committing to him when they really have no other options.

            • And I just don’t think that’s realistic. Baltimore was asking if they were going to tender Walker before starting to discuss a trade; they absolutely smell blood in the water with Alvarez.

              I highly Huntington or anyone gets more than IFA cash or an equivalent for Alvarez until it’s shown they couldn’t sign him themselves in a week or whatever after being non-tendered. Think about what the Mets got for Ike Davis vs what the Pirates got for him a year later.

              • For someone who constantly points out to others how flawed their arguments are, this has to be one of the dumbest I’ve seen. Baltimore “absolutely smell[s] blood in the water with Alvarez” because they [supposedly] *asked* if Huntington was going to tender Walker – really???? 1) This was reported by Biertempfel and a Baltimore Sun guy, and 2) wouldn’t any GM in his right mind ask such an obvious question before entering a trade discussion?

            • Interested teams may wait to see if he is tendered. If he is tendered a contract the trade doors open.

              I expect him to be tendered and traded. Still a few months before spring training and NH is a patient man.

        • If he is mark Trumbo might be an “option”

      • Get a REAL first baseman if you dump Pedro – why not add Ike Davis and GI Jones to your list of low value first basemen.

        Steamer projections
        Trumbo 1.1
        PEDRO 0.8
        Ike Davis 0.6
        Loney 0.5
        Larouche -0.1
        GI Jones -0.6

        • It was an effort to name 1st basemen who have a similar contract to Pedro’s and could be change-of-scenery trade candidates. The three I mentioned would fit the bill.

          Jones is a free agent and Davis is a non-tender candidate who’ll be making half of Pedro’s salary. So, I don’t think either of those fit the bill.

          • Huh?
            If I could sign Davis for $3M rather than dealing with Trumbo – Loney – Larouche OR PEDRO why would I not do it…

            Let ,me answer my own question – there are better options – FIND A REAL FIRST BASEMAN and stop scraping the bottom of the dumpster….

            • The Pirates aren’t going to ‘find’ a better first baseman.

              Even by the metrics you posted, Pedro is still better than Davis.

              They suppose they already have their 1Bman of the future in Bell.

        • I definitely wouldn’t go after Trumbo. I feel like Morse IS Trumbo…if only and older and maybe declining version.

  • He has little to no trade value, not for 8.1 MM. He will be non tendered one week from today.

    • Little trade value may be fair, but there are a few teams that may be desperate for even average DH play. Its only 1 guaranteed year, so if a team has a big need and doesnt mind “just” 114 wRC+ like results it’d be a non terrible gamble.

      BAL being the obvious match. Stadium fits Pedro’s skill set, they have a need for power and a DH, and they could afford 1 year of 9 million if they think he helps them try to compete in that division. Or at least give the illusion enough to sell some tickets.

      • Nailed it, especially on that last line. They’ve gotten demolished by fans for letting Nelson Cruz go and ostensibly replacing him with Travis Snider/David Lough/Random Platoon Players; now they’re going to lose Davis as well. The money is there given what they’ll be losing to Free Agency, and 30+ dingers may just put a few more butts in the seats.

        Also a perfect landing spot for Alvarez defensively, as they haven’t been shy to try players where others would not. See if the change of scenery with a bit of experience under his rather large belt makes him a passable 1B.

        • “Also a perfect landing spot for Alvarez defensively, as they haven’t been shy to try players where others would not.”

          Second baseman Steve Pearce would agree with that.

          • And third baseman Steve Pearce along with OFr Steve Pearce.

            • I think you missed the point, Leo. Pearce had already played both OF and a smattering of 3B with the Pirates and in the minors, but it was Baltimore that threw caution to the winds and started him at 2B – a position he had never before played professionally – a dozen times this year.

        • I think this is a perfect landing spot for Pedro, but a terrible spot for us to get good value in return (or at least I do not see them as a great trade-partner for us).

      • Interestingly, DHs averaged a 114 wRC+ in 2015. And some of the names below that line are making a butt ton more than Pedro.

        • No they didnt. Unless you count literally everyone who got any at bat as a DH in the sample.

          If you go by those who “qualified” then the average was 127. Meaning there were 10 guys who played DH and got 600 or more at bats, and of that list the average was 127. Pedro at 114 would have been 9th of 11, with only Butler making more than him and being worse than him.

          If you expand DH to include anyone who got 300 plate appearances or more, the average is 117, and includes part time DH types like CJ Cron.

          In short, if Pedro does go somewhere and plays just DH, he’ll easily be one of the lesser pure DHs unless he improves his offensive game. If he’s getting 500+ at bats as a DH and putting up a 114 wRC+, he’ll be on the bottom 3rd of DHs.

          • The average is the average. I’m not getting into “smartest guy in the room” argument in semantics as the topic at hand is simply whether Pedro has value for a trade vs becoming a non-tender (and for the record, I would not non-tender him).



            In the aggregate, you have a point as using FG is poor as they don’t appear to break out DH PAs separately from other PAs a player may have. ESPN does a better job, but they don’t offer advanced stats with that breakout. Using the available ESPN stats, Pedro’s batting line of .243/.318/.469/.787 vs the average of .259/.330/.439/.769 does show Pedro’s power is significantly above average and can offset his lower BA/OBP, which should be appealing to some teams.

            In looking at individual players, there are only 8 guys with 600+ PAs higher than Pedro, leaving 7 teams who could use his services. An argument could even be made on the basis of RC27 that Pedro is at least equal to Pujols, if not slightly better – and certainly so from a $ per AB metric.


            If you throw in Sano, assuming he’ll both have more DH PAs in 2016, that still leaves six teams: BAL, TB, DET, CLE, HOU, OAK. Of those, DET is unlikely to move from VMart and OAK is stuck with Butler, both due to contract status. TB is unlikely to spend the $, despite the need. Which leaves three teams – BAL, CLE, HOU – as “realistic” homes for Pedro.

            What’s important about those three particular teams is that all have a reasonable expectation of making the postseason, so there is incentive to improve the DH position, and $8 million isn’t a ton to do so. Thus, you do what you can to cut the best deal possible, which would be better than a non-tender. And if the deal can’t be cut in the offseason, IMO, you hold onto Pedro as there isn’t a truly better option at this point and there is the possibility that his 1b play improves.

            Given a number of the guys who are full time DHs are ancient and injury prone, there’s also the chance an opportunity will come to trade Pedro come June or so.

            I am not a GM, nor did I spent the night at a Holiday Inn Express.

  • “Scott Boras Believes Time is Right for a Trade”

    ^fixed that for Heyman

    Seriously though, everyone knows Heyman is little more than a mouthpiece for Boras on issues involving his player. Safe to say Boras himself is looking just as hard as Huntington. Pretty mature decisions all around, if you ask me.

    • Its also a bit funny for Heyman/Boras to say this now. NH is sitting somewhere going “yeah, no shit”.

      Im actually rather relieved Pedro/Boras is handling it as well as they are. Could have easily complained about the team not “backing” Pedro and trying to get rid of him. Good on both sides for realizing its maybe time to just move on and wish each other well.

      • Exactly. You obviously can’t blame Alvarez, who unquestionably knows the team themselves are trying to get id of him. Better to do this mutually than whine about not getting a fair shake or whatever.

        • Maybe Boras can find someone interested

        • All parties have an interest in Alvarez landing somewhere at his projected arb salary. Pedro and Boras get paid, the Pirates get something in return. Boras is certainly not above whining when it suits his and his client’s needs, but in this case all interests are aligned.

          Which gives me hope that a trade is still the most likely scenario.

        • I think Pedro is smart enough to know if he plays 1 more season in the NL he may be beaten by an angry mob.