Before the Pirates signed Russell Martin, they offered him a three-year deal, which he turned down in order to reach free agency a year earlier. The move looks to have paid off in a big way. Based on his 2015 season, he probably would have still landed a huge deal this off-season. But he would have been playing one more season at an $8.5 M a year rate, rather than inking that $17.5 M a year contract a year earlier.
As a result, the Pirates only got Martin for two years, then had to find a replacement for him after he moved out of their price range. Fortunately, it worked out for them, as they landed Francisco Cervelli in a trade last year, getting their new catcher for two years at a very cheap price, and watching him match Martin’s value last year.
Today a rumor came out that the Pirates have discussed an extension with Cervelli. No details were revealed, so we can’t really discuss the type of deal. However, I’d have to say that this approach makes sense under the right circumstances.
Cervelli is coming off a big year, and the first season that he really stuck it out the full year as a starting catcher. Granted, he hasn’t had many opportunities in the past with the Yankees, being stuck behind Russell Martin and Brian McCann. Yet there’s still some uncertainty here. Was this just a fluke, or was it Cervelli finally breaking out?
The Pirates are in a situation where Cervelli’s price could be determined by the answer to that question. If they extend Cervelli now, they’re probably going to get a cheaper price, due to the fact that there are still questions, and Cervelli would otherwise be due about $2.5 M through arbitration. On the other hand, if they wait and Cervelli has another good season in 2016, they’re looking at another Martin situation, where a talented catcher could walk via free agency.
So do you gamble that Cervelli’s 2015 season was legit, and buy in before the price gets too high again?
Offensively, I feel that Cervelli could repeat his 2015 numbers. He had a .295/.370/.401 line, which isn’t far off his .284/.357/.389 career line. His BABIP of .359 was a bit higher than his career .341, but not to a significant degree. His walk rate was also slightly higher — 9.0% vs 8.5% — and his isolated power was about the same. Granted, he had 510 plate appearances last year, and that makes up about 40% of his career totals. He posted similar numbers the year before, and while a two year span gives confidence, you’re also looking at a small sample size when you combine the seasons, with just 672 plate appearances.
Defensively, Cervelli had issues throwing out runners, but I place more of that problem on the pitching staff. He was excellent at working with the pitching staff, and did a great job with his pitch framing, ranking as one of the best in the league.
There is the issue of Elias Diaz, although that could turn into an advantage for the Pirates. Chris Stewart is eligible for free agency following the 2016 season, and the Pirates would be best letting him walk and calling up Diaz at that point, if he’s not up already as an injury replacement in 2016. The Pirates could use a combo of Diaz and Cervelli in 2017, and then if Diaz shows he’s ready to start, move on from Cervelli after that season. It would give them a bit of a safety net with Diaz, and could lead to a great catching combo.
The flip side to all of this is that Cervelli could get hurt, or could see his numbers slip, or Diaz could show he’s ready in 2016 and show that the extension wasn’t necessary.
I think that a smaller deal would make sense here, as it would mitigate the risk, while adding some security at the catching position. And if Cervelli shows that last year was legit, then the Pirates could end up with a steal, depending on the terms of such a deal.
**I’ve mentioned several times that I think Mark Melancon will get a big return on the trade market, despite having one year and a projected $10 M remaining before he hits free agency. Aside from how good Melancon is, a big reason I think he’ll get a good deal is due to the lack of free agent options on the market, and Melancon having a good shot at landing a compensation pick following the 2016 season.
Ken Rosenthal had an interesting look at the market, which adds another aspect here.
Why the sudden willingness to move such talents?
One exec said it’s not because teams no longer value relievers, the most volatile of baseball species. Quite the contrary; teams want to mimic the Royals, who rode the strength of their bullpen to two straight AL titles and a World Series title this season.
Another exec said the surplus of closer types on the trade market is a reflection of a shortage on the free-agent market. Circumstances play a role, too; Chapman and Melancon, for example, are entering their free-agent years.
I’ve seen a lot of speculation that the Pirates wouldn’t get a good return because of other good relievers on the market. There’s also the idea that teams are getting wise, and that’s why you’re seeing relievers getting traded, with the extra relievers on the market expected to drive the price down.
Rosenthal’s rumor suggests that the opposite could be true. In an attempt to copy the Royals, teams will be going after top relievers, which means you could see several teams seeking out the top guys, and not just 1-2 teams that would make the seller’s market a game of musical chairs. The desire to be like the Royals could also drive the prices up, as teams place a higher value on top relievers.
I’m all for the Royals model, and feel a top bullpen is very important. But I think the Pirates can assemble one without paying big, and I think they could capitalize on other teams who want to take shortcuts to a successful bullpen in the meantime.
**Bucs, Beers, and Bites: The Arizona Fall League Edition. Had fun with this new feature, and it got a good response. I’ll probably do it again in the future, just to mix things up a bit from the normal routine.
**Andrew McCutchen Wins Fourth Straight Silver Slugger Award. I’ve written that he shouldn’t be in center field already this off-season. But one thing is certain — no matter where he plays, the man can hit a baseball.
**Pirates Listening to Offers on Numerous Players, Considering Cervelli Extension. The Cervelli rumor, along with rumors that they’re listening on all of the guys with one year remaining on their deals.
**AFL: Command Issues For Dickson, Meadows Leaves Team Early. One week to go in the AFL season. I’ll have an article up tomorrow on one of the pitchers at the level.
**Winter Leagues: Debut For Elias Diaz, Rojas Homers. Speaking of Elias Diaz, he made his debut in winter ball this week.
