Matt Swartz at MLBTR has been producing some very accurate arbitration estimates over the last three seasons. His estimates for the Pittsburgh Pirates just came out recently, in an off-season preview that was written by Charlie at Bucs Dugout. Below are the MLBTR arbitration estimates:
- Gaby Sanchez, 1B (5.025): $2.7MM
- Neil Walker, 2B (4.166): $8.6MM
- Ike Davis, 1B (4.155): $4.4MM
- Mark Melancon, RP (4.098): $7.6MM
- Travis Snider, OF (4.091): $2MM
- Chris Stewart, C (4.091): $1.3MM
- Pedro Alvarez, 3B (4.085): $5.5MM
- Tony Watson, RP (3.101): $2MM
- Josh Harrison, 3B (3.033): $2.2MM
- Jared Hughes, RP (2.162): $1.1MM
- Vance Worley, SP (2.139): $2.9MM
Charlie notes that Mark Melancon’s projection is way up there due to a combination of saves and holds that might have messed up the projection system. He disagreed with the projection for Melancon, and I do as well. I’ve got Melancon projected for $4 M, and I think he’ll end up around that range. So I’m keeping that projection on the 40-man payroll page. The rest of the projections have been updated with the MLBTR figures.
The 2015 payroll projection has been updated with the new figures. The estimated payroll was $65,452,500 prior to this. The new estimate is $65,574,750. There were a few differences here, but overall they balanced each other out. For example, my projection for Neil Walker was $600,000 low, but my projection for Pedro Alvarez was $500,000 high. As another example, my projection for Josh Harrison was $800,000 high, and Vance Worley was $900,000 low.
I don’t see the Pirates keeping both Davis and Alvarez. Also, Gaby Sanchez could be a non-tender candidate, with the possibility that he could return at a lower price. So the projections would drop at least $4-5 M, and possibly more than that, depending on how the first base situation plays out.
Here is a look back at how accurate the projections have been in previous years (or if you skip over this, know that they’ve been very accurate).
2012
Player (Projection/Actual)
Joel Hanrahan ($4.0/$4.1)
Casey McGehee ($3.1/$2.5375)
Jeff Karstens ($2.8/$3.1)
Garrett Jones ($2.4/$2.25)
Ross Ohlendorf ($2.1/Non-Tendered)
Charlie Morton ($2.1/$2.445)
Jose Veras ($2.5/$2.0 with Milwaukee)
Chris Resop ($1.1/$0.85)
Evan Meek ($0.9/$0.875)
Jason Grilli ($0.8/$1.1)
2013
Player (Projection/Actual)
Joel Hanrahan ($6.9/$7.04)
Jeff Karstens ($3.8/Non-Tendered)
Garrett Jones ($4.4/$4.5)
Charlie Morton ($2.6/$2.0)
Chris Resop ($1.3/$1.35)
James McDonald ($3.0/$3.025)
Neil Walker ($2.9/$3.3)
Gaby Sanchez ($1.8/$1.75)
2014
Player (Projection/Actual)
Garrett Jones ($5.3/Non-Tendered)
Neil Walker ($4.8/$5.75)
Pedro Alvarez ($4.0/$4.25)
Charlie Morton ($3.9/$4.0) *Part of an extension
Mark Melancon ($3.0/$2.595)
Gaby Sanchez ($2.3/$2.3)
Travis Snider ($1.4/$1.2)
Michael McKenry ($900K/Non-Tendered)
Vin Mazzaro ($800 K/$950 K)
Felix Pie ($500K/Non-Tendered)
