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Pittsburgh Pirates 2015 Arbitration Estimates

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Matt Swartz at MLBTR has been producing some very accurate arbitration estimates over the last three seasons. His estimates for the Pittsburgh Pirates just came out recently, in an off-season preview that was written by Charlie at Bucs Dugout. Below are the MLBTR arbitration estimates:

  • Gaby Sanchez, 1B (5.025): $2.7MM
  • Neil Walker, 2B (4.166): $8.6MM
  • Ike Davis, 1B (4.155): $4.4MM
  • Mark Melancon, RP (4.098): $7.6MM
  • Travis Snider, OF (4.091): $2MM
  • Chris Stewart, C (4.091): $1.3MM
  • Pedro Alvarez, 3B (4.085): $5.5MM
  • Tony Watson, RP (3.101): $2MM
  • Josh Harrison, 3B (3.033): $2.2MM
  • Jared Hughes, RP (2.162): $1.1MM
  • Vance Worley, SP (2.139): $2.9MM

Charlie notes that Mark Melancon’s projection is way up there due to a combination of saves and holds that might have messed up the projection system. He disagreed with the projection for Melancon, and I do as well. I’ve got Melancon projected for $4 M, and I think he’ll end up around that range. So I’m keeping that projection on the 40-man payroll page. The rest of the projections have been updated with the MLBTR figures.

The 2015 payroll projection has been updated with the new figures. The estimated payroll was $65,452,500 prior to this. The new estimate is $65,574,750. There were a few differences here, but overall they balanced each other out. For example, my projection for Neil Walker was $600,000 low, but my projection for Pedro Alvarez was $500,000 high. As another example, my projection for Josh Harrison was $800,000 high, and Vance Worley was $900,000 low.

I don’t see the Pirates keeping both Davis and Alvarez. Also, Gaby Sanchez could be a non-tender candidate, with the possibility that he could return at a lower price. So the projections would drop at least $4-5 M, and possibly more than that, depending on how the first base situation plays out.

Here is a look back at how accurate the projections have been in previous years (or if you skip over this, know that they’ve been very accurate).

2012

Player (Projection/Actual)

Joel Hanrahan ($4.0/$4.1)

Casey McGehee ($3.1/$2.5375)

Jeff Karstens ($2.8/$3.1)

Garrett Jones ($2.4/$2.25)

Ross Ohlendorf ($2.1/Non-Tendered)

Charlie Morton ($2.1/$2.445)

Jose Veras ($2.5/$2.0 with Milwaukee)

Chris Resop ($1.1/$0.85)

Evan Meek ($0.9/$0.875)

Jason Grilli ($0.8/$1.1)

2013

Player (Projection/Actual)

Joel Hanrahan ($6.9/$7.04)

Jeff Karstens ($3.8/Non-Tendered)

Garrett Jones ($4.4/$4.5)

Charlie Morton ($2.6/$2.0)

Chris Resop ($1.3/$1.35)

James McDonald ($3.0/$3.025)

Neil Walker ($2.9/$3.3)

Gaby Sanchez ($1.8/$1.75)

2014

Player (Projection/Actual)

Garrett Jones ($5.3/Non-Tendered)

Neil Walker ($4.8/$5.75)

Pedro Alvarez ($4.0/$4.25)

Charlie Morton ($3.9/$4.0) *Part of an extension

Mark Melancon ($3.0/$2.595)

Gaby Sanchez  ($2.3/$2.3)

Travis Snider ($1.4/$1.2)

Michael McKenry ($900K/Non-Tendered)

Vin Mazzaro ($800 K/$950 K)

Felix Pie ($500K/Non-Tendered)

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Tim Williams
Tim Williams
Tim is the owner, producer, editor, and lead writer of PiratesProspects.com. He has been running Pirates Prospects since 2009, becoming the first new media reporter and outlet covering the Pirates at the MLB level in 2011 and 2012. His work can also be found in Baseball America, where he has been a contributor since 2014 and the Pirates' correspondent since 2019.

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