What is A.J. Burnett’s Trade Value?

The Pittsburgh Pirates keep getting connected to A.J. Burnett. Earlier today we heard from Jim Bowden that the Pirates and Phillies continued to discuss Burnett, and that the discussion revolved around how much salary the Phillies would pick up, and players to go the other way.

Last night I took a look at the trade values in this seller’s market, determining that teams will probably have to pay $9.5 M per win on the trade market. Using that figure, we can take a look at Burnett’s trade value, and determine just how much the Phillies should be giving up, and what type of prospects they can expect from the Pirates.

NOTE: The purpose here isn’t to suggest the Pirates are offering this amount for Burnett.  The purpose is to see the value of Burnett, using projected values based on the current market (calculated as [(WAR*$9.5 M) – Salary]) and prospect trade values. We use our updated values for top 100 prospects, and Victor Wang’s research on prospect values for non-top 100 prospects.

A big question with Burnett’s value is whether the Phillies have to pay his $7.5 M signing bonus, or whether that goes with him to another team. The Phillies deferred the bonus, with $1 M being paid in December, and $6.5 M being paid next year. I’m thinking that this goes along with the contract, just like any performance bonuses.

According to Cot’s, Burnett is being paid $7.5 M this year. The Pirates would pay $2.44 M of that if he was traded on July 31st. He will make $500,000 each for 24 and 27 games started, and $750,000 for 30 games started. If he starts 32 games, his player option next year increases to $12.75 M, and the same performance bonuses for 24, 27, and 30 games started apply. That means he could earn as much as $14.5 M next year if he makes 32 starts this season and 30 starts next season. He’s currently at 22 starts this year.

The total cost for the Pirates would be $18.69 M over the next 14 months, or $26.19 M if you include the signing bonus, which I think would be included.

Burnett hasn’t been pitching like he did in previous years. Right now he has a 1.1 WAR in two-thirds of the season. I projected that going forward, giving him a 1.7 WAR this year (which is represented as 1.7 in the chart below, but the Pirates would only get a third of that production). I bumped it up next year to a 2.0 WAR.

Here is a look at how it all adds up.

With his current salary and production, Burnett isn’t worth anything. The Phillies would have to pick up some of his salary just to deal him for nothing, and this is at the super high rate of $9.5 M per win.

There is some value to be had next year, even if he does make 30 starts and $14.5 M. However, the signing bonus would negate that value. You’d have to hope that his current struggle is just a down year due to injury, and not a 37-year-old who is starting a rapid decline.

If the Phillies paid the signing bonus, then Burnett would be worth something. He’d be worth $5.8 M, which is the price of a Grade B hitting prospect, or two Grade C pitching prospects. The hitting prospect would be the quality of someone like Harold Ramirez, while the Grade C pitchers would be guys in the lower levels, rated in the 11-30 range. And of course, the more the Phillies pick up, the more they would expect to get back in prospects.

So what we’re looking at here is zero value for Burnett with his entire contract, or a small return if the Phillies take his signing bonus. You also have to consider the fact that the Pirates would still be paying him up to $18.69 M over the next 14 months, plus 1-2 prospects, even if the Phillies did pick up his signing bonus. Considering Burnett isn’t much of an upgrade over what the Pirates have at the back of their rotation, that combined price wouldn’t really make sense for the Pirates.

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