Early 2012 Super Two Estimates

According to CAA Sports, an agency that represents numerous athletes across all sports, including Jason Bay, Dan Haren, and Ryan Zimmerman for baseball, the early estimates for the 2012 Super Two class is two years, 146 days.  That number is based on their own internal analysis, and isn’t an official number, as obviously plenty of things can change between now and the end of the 2011 season, all of which would alter that figure.

McCutchen is a long shot to be Super Two eligible in 2012.

For now, if we use that number as a reference, and assume everyone who is currently in the majors will be in the majors for the rest of the year, we get the following Super Two eligible players for the Pittsburgh Pirates heading in to next year:

Steve Pearce (Estimate: 2.164)

Garrett Jones (Estimate: 1.158)

The Pirates have several other players on the bubble.  Jason Jaramillo was at 1.137 heading in to the year, although it’s unlikely he gets a full year of service time in 2011.  John Bowker was at 1.134 heading in to the year, and could stick on the 25-man roster all year.  Jose Ascanio was at 1.126 heading in to the year.  He’s currently injured, and racking up service time.

The most important one is Andrew McCutchen, who had 1.123 years of service time heading in to the season, and is a guarantee to be at 2.123 years heading in to next year.  There were questions as to whether McCutchen would be Super Two eligible following the season, after an extremely low cut-off in 2011.  Even though this is an estimate, it’s high enough that it doesn’t seem like McCutchen is at any risk of being a Super Two eligible player following the season.

Looking forward, Neil Walker is the only player affected by this in the Pirates’ players with less than a year of service time.  Walker has 166 days of service time, so he’s a guarantee to become Super Two eligible, following the 2012 season.

Looking at the payroll commitments chart, Jones and Pearce would be expected to join an arbitration class next year that already includes Jeff Karstens, Joel Hanrahan, Jose Veras, Ross Ohlendorf, Charlie Morton, Chris Resop, Evan Meek, and Garrett Olson.

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Hmm, I guess we know which two guys we will be saying goodbye to in the near future.

Pearce can’t stay healthy and Jones has been reduced to a platoon role. I can’t see us giving them the payraises that they could ask for.

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