Rob Biertempfel reported Tuesday that the Pirates are targeting free agent pitcher Jorge de la Rosa this offseason.
I’ve heard from a couple sources, inside and outside of the team, that left-hander Jorge de la Rosa is atop the Pirates’ free-agent shopping list this winter.
I shared my thoughts on this via Twitter.
[blackbirdpie url=”http://twitter.com/MBandi/status/4586963554275328″]
I also discussed this in an article on November 2.
De La Rosa will be one of the most sought after free agent pitchers, behind [Cliff] Lee. The Rockies seem intent on bringing him back to Colorado. I would rather stay out of a bidding war for a guy who walks more than four hitters per nine innings. He is also a Type A free agent, meaning the Pirates would lose their second round draft pick if they somehow signed him. I would pass on De La Rosa.
I didn’t mention the fact that de la Rosa has also struggled to stay healthy. My main issue with a potential deal is that it will take at least three years (possibly more) of an eight-figure annual salary to become a serious option for de la Rosa. That is a large commitment to someone who is not a top of the rotation starter, particularly for a low-revenue team that is still a few years from competing. If de la Rosa turns out to be a flop, the Pirates are going to be in trouble.
I tend to shy away from long-term commitments to pitchers, because their performance can be very hard to predict. So I decided to look at some of the pitchers who signed similar deals to the one we should expect for de la Rosa. Here is what I found.
* option year
| Dan Haren Signed 8/5/2008 4 years, $44.75 million |
||||
| Year | Salary (M) | IP | FIP | WAR |
| 2009 | $7.5 | 229.1 | 3.23 | 6.1 |
| 2010 | $8.25 | 235.0 | 3.71 | 4.5 |
| 2011 | $12.75 | ——- | ——- | ——- |
| 2012 | $12.75 | ——- | ——- | ——- |
| 2013 | $15.5 * | ——- | ——- | ——- |
| Scott Kazmir Signed 5/14/2008 3 years, $28.5 million |
||||
| Year | Salary (M) | IP | FIP | WAR |
| 2009 | $6.0 | 147.1 | 4.26 | 2.3 |
| 2010 | $8.0 | 150.0 | 5.83 | -0.8 |
| 2011 | $12.0 | ——- | ——- | ——- |
| 2012 | $13.5 * | ——- | ——- | ——- |
| Ervin Santana Signed 2/14/2009 4 years, $30 million |
||||
| Year | Salary (M) | IP | FIP | WAR |
| 2009 | $3.8 | 139.2 | 5.02 | 1.1 |
| 2010 | $6.0 | 222.2 | 4.28 | 2.5 |
| 2011 | $8.0 | ——- | ——- | ——- |
| 2012 | $11.2 | ——- | ——- | ——- |
| 2013 | $13.0 * | ——- | ——- | ——- |
| Derek Lowe Signed 1/15/2009 4 years, $60 million |
||||
| Year | Salary (M) | IP | FIP | WAR |
| 2009 | $15.0 | 194.2 | 4.06 | 2.6 |
| 2010 | $15.0 | 193.2 | 3.89 | 2.7 |
| 2011 | $15.0 | ——- | ——- | ——- |
| 2012 | $15.0 | ——- | ——- | ——- |
| Chris Carpenter Signed 12/2006 5 years, $63.5 million |
||||
| Year | Salary (M) | IP | FIP | WAR |
| 2007 | $8.5 | 6.0 | 3.24 | 0.2 |
| 2008 | $10.5 | 15.1 | 3.00 | 0.4 |
| 2009 | $14.0 | 192.2 | 2.78 | 5.6 |
| 2010 | $14.5 | 235.0 | 3.69 | 3.7 |
| 2011 | $15.0 | ——- | ——- | ——- |
| 2012 | $15.0 * | ——- | ——- | ——- |
| Kyle Lohse Signed 9/28/2008 4 years, $41 million |
||||
| Year | Salary (M) | IP | FIP | WAR |
| 2009 | $7.125 | 117.2 | 4.55 | 0.8 |
| 2010 | $8.875 | 92.0 | 4.42 | 0.7 |
| 2011 | $11.875 | ——- | ——- | ——- |
| 2012 | $11.875 | ——- | ——- | ——- |
| Ryan Dempster Signed 11/18/2008 4 years, $52 million |
||||
| Year | Salary (M) | IP | FIP | WAR |
| 2009 | $8.0 | 200.0 | 3.87 | 3.8 |
| 2010 | $12.5 | 215.1 | 3.99 | 3.5 |
| 2011 | $13.5 | ——- | ——- | ——- |
| 2012 | $14.0 | ——- | ——- | ——- |
| Carlos Silva Signed 12/20/2007 4 years, $48 million |
||||
| Year | Salary (M) | IP | FIP | WAR |
| 2008 | $7.0 | 153.1 | 4.63 | 1.4 |
| 2009 | $11.0 | 30.1 | 5.97 | -0.1 |
| 2010 | $11.5 | 113.0 | 3.75 | 2.1 |
| 2011 | $11.5 | ——- | ——- | ——- |
| 2012 | $12.0 * | ——- | ——- | ——- |
| Oliver Perez Signed 2/2/2009 3 years, $36 million |
||||
| Year | Salary (M) | IP | FIP | WAR |
| 2009 | $12.0 | 66.0 | 6.40 | -0.8 |
| 2010 | $12.0 | 46.1 | 6.99 | -1.1 |
| 2011 | $12.0 | ——- | ——- | ——- |
| Roy Oswalt Signed 8/2006 5 years, $73 million |
||||
| Year | Salary (M) | IP | FIP | WAR |
| 2007 | $13.0 | 212.0 | 3.59 | 4.6 |
| 2008 | $13.0 | 208.2 | 3.80 | 3.5 |
| 2009 | $14.0 | 181.1 | 3.76 | 3.0 |
| 2010 | $15.0 | 211.2 | 3.27 | 4.7 |
| 2011 | $16.0 | ——- | ——- | ——- |
| 2012 | $16.0 * | ——- | ——- | ——- |
| Josh Beckett Signed 7/2006 3 years, $30 million |
||||
| Year | Salary (M) | IP | FIP | WAR |
| 2007 | $6.0 | 200.2 | 3.08 | 6.5 |
| 2008 | $9.5 | 174.1 | 3.24 | 5.1 |
| 2009 | $10.5 | 212.1 | 3.63 | 5.4 |
| 2010 | $12.0 * | 127.2 | 4.54 | 1.4 |
| Aaron Cook Signed 12/11/2007 3 years, $30 million |
||||
| Year | Salary (M) | IP | FIP | WAR |
| 2009 | $8.75 | 158.0 | 4.60 | 2.0 |
| 2010 | $9.0 | 127.2 | 4.54 | 1.5 |
| 2011 | $9.25 | ——- | ——- | ——- |
| 2012 | $11.0 * | ——- | ——- | ——- |
| Gil Meche Signed 12/2006 5 years, $55 million |
||||
| Year | Salary (M) | IP | FIP | WAR |
| 2007 | $7.0 | 216.0 | 4.02 | 4.4 |
| 2008 | $11.0 | 210.1 | 3.61 | 5.0 |
| 2009 | $11.0 | 129.0 | 4.76 | 1.6 |
| 2010 | $12.0 | 61.2 | 5.59 | -0.2 |
| 2011 | $12.0 | ——- | ——- | ——- |
| Mark Buehrle Signed 7/8/2007 4 years, $56 million |
||||
| Year | Salary (M) | IP | FIP | WAR |
| 2008 | 14.0 | 218.2 | 3.94 | 4.6 |
| 2009 | 14.0 | 213.1 | 4.46 | 3.4 |
| 2010 | 14.0 | 210.1 | 3.90 | ——- |
| 2011 | 14.0 | ——- | ——- | ——- |
Obviously, some of these deals worked out well. But a significant number of them ended up being the type of major mistake that could ruin a team like the Pirates.
De la Rosa is a major risk. He misses bats, but he has always posted below average walk rates. He will turn 30 in April. He has only thrown more than 130 innings once in his career. He will probably be overpaid this offseason, because there is little pitching available in the free agent market.
Put it this way. De la Rosa, at best, has been about as productive as Paul Maholm over the past three or four years. He is a year older than Maholm. Would you commit three-plus years of eight-figure salary to Maholm right now, while forfeiting a second round draft pick? I wouldn’t.
