Tim hit the road to report live from State College, Williamsport, Altoona, and will head down to West Virginia, all part of his season-ending minor league tour. It was a mixed bag for Tim:
- Altoona lost 2-0 in Bowie on 8/30
- But then won 9-1 to clinch the division in Bowie on 8/31
- Tim decided to throw a few black cats on the field for State College, starting on 9/1 with a 1-0 loss
- Then a 3-2 loss on 9/2…
- …and State College barred his media credentials after a 3-0 loss on 9/3.
- The sledding was easier in Altoona after a 11-2 win on 9/4.
- The week in review ended with a 3-2 win on Sunday night against the Reading Phillies.
Here is a recap of the past week…
- A video recap of Bryan Morris from his 8/1/10 start.
- With the GCL season wrapping up, the whole crew recapped the 2010 GCL Pirates season.
- John had an interview with undrafted Pirate, Barrett Phillips who had a nice debut season.
- The “Know Your Enemy” series on the rest of the NL Central kicked off this week with the Houston Astros and the Chicago Cubs.
- Adalberto Santos was named the New York Penn League player of the week.
- Tim previewed this season’s Arizona Fall League and the players the Pirates will be sending.
- Tim discussed the minor league tour he is currently on and the way he evaluates players.
- Wilbur looked at who could be added and who could be removed from the 40 man roster this offseason.
- Tim pondered the differences in perception for Neil Walker versus Jose Tabata.
- Joe Martinez was promoted to the majors.
- Phillip Irwin was promoted from West Virginia to Bradenton, just in time for the Florida State League playoffs.
Some things coming up this week…
- The remaining 3 “Know Your Enemy” articles for Milwaukee, St. Louis, and Cincinnati
- Wrap ups on Indianapolis, West Virginia, and State College’s seasons
- Tim’s thoughts from his marathon tour of the minors
In December 2010, Tim posted this analysis of the average ERAs of #1 through #5 starting pitchers.
He found that the average fifth starter in 2010 had an ERA of 5.69. The average #3 starter (which would be the average overall MLB starting pitcher) was 4.15.
Given these findings, Kevin Correia’s xFIP would actually make him an average #4 starter. But that is still not good enough to be the #5 starter in the Pirates rotation becaause they have better replacement options.
Those numbers arn’t close to valid anymore after a huge drop in league wide run scoring. Correia’s FIP and xFIP were worse than Jamie Moyer’s heading in to last night. He has no business starting for anyone unless they are completely desperate.
It is true that those numbers are not as relevant as they were at the end of the 2010 season. But the decline in league wide run scoring has not been so significant that it invalidates those numbers.
In 2010, the average runs scored per game per team in the NL was 4.33. This year it is 4.21. In 2010 the NL average ERA was 4.02. Today, it is 3.93. If we deduct that .09 difference from the average 2010 fifth starter, it only brings the average #5 down to 5.60. That still makes Correia a fourth or fifth starter with his 4.98 xFIP.
Of course, that is not close to being an in-depth analysis. It may be that run scoring against starting pitchers overall has declined significantly more than run scoring against relievers. I might have some fun with taking on the project of determining the average xFIP of NL #1 through #5 starters. Maybe.
Totally agree with you. I don’t think some fans understand that KC is a 5th starter for the Bucs and at best would be the same elsewhere. Certainly he doesn’t strike anybody out and he serves up too many gopher balls and he hardly gives you quality starts, but as a back of the rotation type, he’s not the worst in MLB.
I’d be all for a trade with the Royals for Robinson by putting KC in KC.
Totally in a different direction, but does the GM not understand when he states calling up Mercer and saying that we’re gonna play him means he doesn’t become Hurdle’s invisible man on the bench? Continued sitting for a guy who can’t break the Mendoza line really irks me!
I was a little unfair to Correia in my last comment. I wrote that his FIP is 5.59, but I failed to mention that he has a very unlucky HR/FB rate of 15%. The xFIP number that Tim listed, 4.98, is probably a better reflection of Correia’s actual performance.