Today we continued the top 20 prospects countdown with our number 17 prospect, Clay Holmes. When Holmes returns from Tommy John surgery in 2015, he should go to Bradenton. That was where he was projected to start the year in 2014, prior to his injury in Spring Training. Heading into the off-season, it looked like the Pirates might have a shortage of rotation spots in High-A. Holmes is a guy who would have been guaranteed a spot, but the shortage of spots could have led to someone like Tyler Eppler going to West Virginia, rather than getting an aggressive push to Bradenton at the start of the 2015 season, which is where I’ve got him projected now.
The Pirates traded Shane Carle and Buddy Borden this off-season, reducing the amount of starting options they’ll have in Bradenton. I currently have Holmes, Luis Heredia, Eppler, and Cody Dickson as strong bets for the rotation. Other candidates could include Alex McRae, Austin Coley, Dovydas Neverauskas, Frank Duncan, Montana DuRapau, or John Sever. The guys from that list who won’t make the jump to Bradenton will likely fill out the West Virginia rotation.
In the last few years, it has been possible for players in Bradenton to get a push to Altoona by the end of the season. Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon did it in 2012. Nick Kingham did it in 2013. But that didn’t happen as much last year. The two guys who got a push to Altoona were Tom Harlan and Orlando Castro, with both projected to be lefty middle relievers at best in the majors. Meanwhile, Tyler Glasnow, Chad Kuhl, Jason Creasy, and John Kuchno all remained in Bradenton for the entire 2014 season, despite strong results from each pitcher.
It might be the same case for Holmes and the rest of the Bradenton rotation in 2015. I don’t know if the Pirates would want to push Holmes late in the year by sending him to Altoona following his Tommy John surgery. But it might not be an option. The candidates for the Altoona rotation are as follows:
Tyler Glasnow
Chad Kuhl
Jason Creasy
John Kuchno
Angel Sanchez
Zack Dodson
Tom Harlan
Orlando Castro
Some of those guys profile as relief options, and will probably get pushed to the bullpen in 2015, due to the lack of starting spots in the upper levels. I think Glasnow, Kuhl, and Creasy are safe for rotation spots. I’d favor Kuchno and Sanchez for the final two spots, just to get innings, although the final five players are guys who I see as having the upside of relievers.
It might even be difficult for some of the Altoona starters to move up to Indianapolis, allowing some of the bullpen options to get back in the rotation. The Triple-A rotation projects to have the following:
Jameson Taillon
Nick Kingham
Adrian Sampson
Clayton Richard
Brandon Cumpton
Casey Sadler
That doesn’t include current or future minor league free agents, such as Deolis Guerra. My guess is that Sadler moves to the bullpen, with the chance to start later in the season if/when someone gets called up from the rotation.
For the guys in Bradenton, in order to receive a promotion to Altoona mid-season, they need a mass domino effect. They need enough spots to clear in Triple-A to open a spot in Double-A. Then, they need to jump past the relief options in Double-A in order to crack that rotation mid-season. It’s not impossible, but it seems unlikely.
This isn’t a situation that looks to change going forward. The Pirates have loaded up on pitching talent through the draft, and a lot of that talent is reaching the upper levels. They’ve traded some away over the last few years, and will probably continue to deal from that depth going forward. But they’re getting to the point where they have too many prospects for rotation spots, which will result in two things — the lesser prospects being shifted to the bullpen and a lack of mid-season promotions in the upper levels due to a lack of space above them.
Links and Notes
**The 2015 Prospect Guide is now available on the products page. The book features our full top 50 prospects, plus profiles for every player in the system. I’m on vacation this week, which means all book orders placed will ship out on Monday morning, January 12th. All eBooks will be available for download immediately.
**Winter Leagues: Walk-Off Hit For Gustavo Nunez, Julio Vivass Shutdown…Possibly
**Update on Jung-Ho Kang’s Negotiations, Gaby Sanchez Headed to Japan
**Pittsburgh Pirates 2015 Top Prospect: #17 – Clay Holmes
