Martin Perez threw six shutout innings on Wednesday afternoon, leading the Pittsburgh Pirates to a series clinching win over the St. Louis Cardinals.
The start from Perez wasn’t the cleanest outing, with five walks, four hits, and only two strikeouts. It did continue a trend where Perez has either been hit or miss. He started this month allowing one run in 7.1 innings. The next two starts saw a combined 11 earned runs in 8.1 innings.
Perez opened the season with a 2.97 ERA in 30.1 innings during the month of April. Since that point, he’s been this hit-or-miss pitcher, with more bad outings than good. And yet, Wednesday’s start was an example of the value Perez still has as a starter.
That value isn’t as strong to the Pirates. They’ve got one of the best rotations in the game, despite struggles from Perez since April. They have Bailey Falter on his way back, which will force someone out of the rotation. They could opt for a six-man rotation, but eventually Jared Jones will return, and Perez will eventually be the odd-man out.
With the trade deadline approaching, the Pirates should be looking for offensive help. I wrote about where they could upgrade, and which players could provide an upgrade, in my trade deadline preview yesterday.
It’s also possible that the Pirates could deal from their MLB club, while also adding to the mix. General Manager Ben Cherington has discussed how the team is open to dealing pitching in their search to upgrade the offense at the deadline.
I don’t think the Pirates would get an offensive upgrade for Perez. Dealing him would be more about salary relief. The reality is the Pirates are going to be a low-budget team under owner Bob Nutting.
Perez could have value to a team in need of pitching. He’d likely only cost money, with a minimal prospect return. That prospect return could offset the system loss if the Pirates make a similar upgrade trade with another team for a hitter.
The Pirates could take the same approach with someone like Aroldis Chapman. They might get a bigger prospect return for Chapman, and could withstand the loss in the majors due to the eventual return of Ryan Borucki from the injured list.
If the Pirates traded Chapman and Perez at the deadline, the savings would be over $6 million for the remainder of the season. This would likely offset salaries of any player they brought in for offensive help, allowing the team to upgrade while saving financial resources for future years.
The flip side to this comes with the intangibles. If the Pirates make the playoffs, the stone cold attitude on the mound from Chapman could become valuable in important innings. And while Perez might not be part of a playoff rotation, his veteran leadership for a younger pitching staff and team could be crucial.
There are younger players with potentially more value. Bailey Falter just started his rehab work last night, and has four years of control remaining beyond this season. Falter has a 4.08 ERA in 90.1 innings this year, though it’s difficult to picture him holding a long-term rotation spot in Pittsburgh. Colin Holderman could bring back value as a late inning reliever with a 1.67 ERA and four more years of control. Quinn Priester leads the group of non-prospect pitchers who could have value to other teams looking to rebuild.
The Pirates have a lot of ways they can go in the next week with their trade deadline options. They could sell from this team, and they should absolutely be adding to the offense.
Series Win, But a Serious Loss
After taking two of three against the Philadelphia Phillies, followed by two of three against the St. Louis Cardinals, the Pirates are 52-50, inching closer to a Wild Card spot. They’re 8-2 in their last ten games, and currently the hottest team in the National League.
These are good trends for reaching the playoffs.
The downside this week was that they lost a game where Paul Skenes pitched a gem and the offense didn’t show up.
There are two ways you can take this. Number one, it’s great that the Pirates are beating playoff calibre teams with series wins. The Pirates will make the playoffs if they consistently take two of three down the stretch. The next challenge comes this weekend in Arizona, against a Wild Card contender with a similar record.
I don’t fault you for lamenting the loss of the Skenes game. There’s a reason Billy Beane’s shit doesn’t work in the playoffs.
The strategy of winning the bulk of the games during the regular season can get a team to the post-season. When you’re winning two out of three during the regular season, it’s easy to downplay the loss of a big game like the Skenes start.
The playoffs are a different animal. One game could make all the difference. You do ultimately need to win more than you lose, but you can’t waste good outings when the season comes down to a best of three, five, or seven game series.
While the Pirates continue to be on track for the post-season, the Skenes start this week shows that they may have some issues in the playoffs winning the big game. Without serious upgrades to this bottom-five offense, they’re susceptible to similar disappointments in a series where you can’t easily write off one loss. Especially one with your best performing pitcher on the mound.
The series win should be cause for celebration among Pirates fans.
The loss in the Skenes start should be cause for the front office to seek an offensive upgrade.
Pirates Sign Fourth Round Pick
The Pirates signed their fourth round pick, prep shortstop Eddie Rynders. The deal was for slot value. The Pirates have now signed seven players, all in the top ten rounds, while creating $179,200 in bonus room.
Rynders was one of four prep players the Pirates drafted in their first five picks. He was drafted higher than his industry draft ranking, likely to match his bonus demands with the slot price.
The Pirates have four more players to sign from the top ten rounds. Their top three picks were prep players, with slot values ranging from $1.98 million to $6.2 million. They also have fifth round outfielder Will Taylor left unsigned, with a slot value of $471,400.
If the Pirates sign all of their top ten round picks and still have money remaining, they can go over-slot on any player after the tenth round. The de-facto slot price for all picks beyond the tenth round is $150,000.
You can follow all of the draft signings and spending on the Draft Pick Signing Tracker.
Pirates Prospect Watch
Charles McAdoo hit his fifth homer of the year for Altoona, while also starting a triple play on the field. Liover Peguero and Matt Fraizer both hit grand slams for Indianapolis. Termarr Johnson extended his hitting streak to 17 games in Greensboro. Carlos Jimenez had a great start in Bradenton, continuing to show better control results this month. Read about all of Wednesday’s minor league action in the latest Pirates Prospect Watch:
Pirates Prospect Watch: Charles McAdoo Homers and Starts a Triple Play
