After tonight’s gem, Jeff Locke has the second best ERA in the Pirates’ rotation at 4.33.
The advanced metrics don’t really back this up. He ranks third with a 4.98 FIP, and that’s hardly a good number. He ranks last in xFIP at 4.90, with most of the rest of the rotation really benefiting here from their HR/FB rates being neutralized at 10%.
The numbers tell us two things. The first is that the Pirates rotation has been bad this year. And I’m talking the type of bad that means prospects will help them, but they’ll need more than help from the farm system to turn things around. The second thing is that there’s not really a clear candidate to leave the rotation when the prospects start to arrive.
In a few weeks, Jameson Taillon will conveniently be ready for the majors, just as Super Two passes. At that point, the Pirates will need to replace one of their starters. But which one?
Locke is the clear choice if you go by the season numbers. Everyone else has a 4.37 xFIP or better, while Locke is at 4.90. He’s your typical fifth starter. Tonight’s start was outstanding, but it’s rare. He will have an equal amount of blow-up starts to the kind of start he has tonight. For example, he now has three outings where he has combined for one earned run in 21 innings. He also has three more outings where he has 18 earned runs in 14.2 innings. The other outings have been decent, with most of them falling in the “quality start” range.
If you take out the extremes, Locke isn’t a bad guy, especially with this offense. He’s going to go six innings, and possibly a bit more, while giving up 2-4 runs in most of his other starts. You’ll have the really poor start that makes people say “Typical Jeff Locke”, and you’ll have a good start that people chalk up as good fortune. He’s not the absolute best option for a contending rotation, but he’s also not the worst option.
Then there’s Juan Nicasio. From a statistical standpoint, he should be in the rotation. He has the best xFIP on the team, and the second best FIP, even though his ERA is the worst on the team. But the downside here is that he’s largely been elevated by some really big starts, with a lot of really bad starts mixed in. Basically, Nicasio is just like Locke when it comes to being hit or miss sometimes. Except he is pretty much all hit or miss, with almost no “quality starts” in between.
One factor here is that Nicasio looks like he’d be a great addition to the bullpen. He’s a two pitch guy with great fastball velocity and a good slider. He has struggled the most this year later in his starts, so if he was only pitching one or two innings, he could turn into a dominant reliever.
I’ve been back and forth on the Nicasio/Locke debate. Nicasio looks like the better overall pitcher, but that’s largely because when he’s good, he’s really good. He also has more really good starts than Locke. The difference is that Locke might be better suited for this offense. He’s not going to blow up as much as Nicasio, and will keep this offense in more games. Nicasio might give a few more dominant performances, but the Pirates have one of the best offenses in baseball, which means Locke’s “quality start” approach might be better, with Nicasio boosting the bullpen.
Next up is Jon Niese, who might be starting to turn things around lately. In his last four starts, he has a 2.45 ERA and a 3.56 xFIP. The home run issue is still there, with five homers in 25.2 innings, and a 31.3% HR/FB ratio. If the Pirates can ever get that solved, Niese would be a no-brainer for this rotation. As for now, you hope that the recent trend is legit, and this is closer to the Jon Niese we see going forward.
The Pirates aren’t going to replace Francisco Liriano, but I do need to point out how poor he has been this year. He ranks fourth on the team in ERA, FIP, and xFIP. His walks are way up, and he’s another guy who is giving up a ridiculous amount of home runs, with a larger than average HR/FB ratio. This is another case where the Pirates need their pitcher to turn things around, and quick. The only problem is that, unlike Niese, you can’t point to a recent trend of starts here as a potential positive sign that Liriano is starting to come out of his funk.
The only pitcher who has been pitching well is Gerrit Cole, although his advanced metrics (4.03 xFIP) aren’t as good as his ERA (2.53). In this rotation, Cole’s numbers are easily the best. However, the Pirates are going to need someone to lead this rotation, and pitch like more than a league average starter. With Liriano struggling so much, and with the prospects unlikely to reach their upsides right away, Cole is the only hope right now of a top of the rotation starter.
The Pirates will get a boost when their prospects start to arrive. They should replace Nicasio, which would allow him to move to the bullpen, and boost that group as well. If they bring up two starters, they could also replace Jeff Locke. If they bring up a third prospect, they could also replace someone like Jon Niese, although that might not be necessary if his current trend continues.
The rotation woes won’t be solved just by prospects, though. The Pirates need Niese to continue his recent success. They need Liriano to figure things out and get back on track. They need Cole to keep pitching like his standard numbers, and not his advanced metrics. Very little is going right in this rotation so far, and if you’re expecting the prospects to come up and fix all of that, you’re going to end up disappointed.
**Jeff Locke Throws His First Complete Game Shutout in Pirates 10-0 Win. Live recap from Miami, looking at Locke’s big night.
**Top Performers: Meadows, Bell, Taillon, Tucker and Kuhl Among the Best Last Week. Our weekly feature, which has 21 prospect reports this week from our live coverage notes.
**Prospect Watch: Big Day for Austin Meadows in Altoona Win. Meadows has been hitting the ball well lately, which is great to see.
**Morning Report: Thoughts on Josh Bell’s Defense. John Dreker takes a look at Josh Bell’s defense this year.
