Very few things can keep Mitch Keller from turning in five-plus innings of quality performance on the mound.
Since the first start of last season, Keller has only gone less than five innings twice. The first time was heading into the All-Star Break this year, when the Pirates gave Keller a break by limiting his final start of the first half to three innings. The second time was on Saturday night, when mother nature shut down his four shutout inning performance against the Arizona Diamondbacks.
That level of consistency has made Keller a top starter in the game. After Saturday’s start, he ranks 18th among 68 qualified pitchers with a 3.20 ERA. His 3.75 FIP ranks a bit lower, but still finishes in the top half at 33rd overall. If you expand the field to any pitcher with 60+ innings, you get 148 qualified pitchers, which should be the top five for every team. Keller ranks 29th in ERA and 50th in FIP, putting him in the top third of pitchers in the majors.
Keller’s consistency has been a big reason why the Pirates are contending for a Wild Card right now. But it was continued consistency from another pitcher on Friday night that led the Pirates to a win.
Kyle Nicolas threw two shutout innings, allowing just one hit and striking out one. Nicolas pitched the sixth and seventh innings, entering the game with a 1-1 tie, and leaving with a 4-1 lead. His two innings set up Aroldis Chapman and David Bednar to close out the win.
In the middle of June, Nicolas allowed earned runs in back-to-back appearances. He followed that with a one week break from pitching. Since June 23rd, Nicolas has been nothing but consistent.
Spanning 17.2 innings across 15 appearances, Nicolas has an 0.51 ERA during this stretch. He’s allowed some unearned runs, and his walk rate is still elevated. He’s also been extremely difficult to hit, with just ten hits allowed.
What stands out from Nicolas is his closer-level stuff. He’s got a fastball that averages 97.6 MPH, with a .297 wOBA against. His fastball has the second-best run value of all four-seam fastballs in the bullpen, and ranks fifth on the team.
His secondary stuff is elite. The slider has a 36.3% whiff rate, while the curveball clocks in at 48.7%. His slider has the fourth best run value of all sliders on the team, ranking second in the bullpen. The curveball has the second highest whiff rate of any pitch from Pirates hurlers, with only the split-finger from Chapman ranking higher.
The Pirates are looking like a team that could do damage in the playoffs, mostly due to their trio of starters led by Keller, Paul Skenes, and Jared Jones. They also have Bednar and Chapman in the late innings, giving them two of the best relievers in recent years.
Nicolas is emerging as another guy who can shut down the late innings. He has the stuff to be a late inning reliever in the future. For now, he looks like one of the best options to give the Pirates an elite trio of relievers to complement the elite trio of starters.
From the first inning to the last, this is a pitching staff that makes the Pirates legitimate contenders.
Andrew McCutchen Injured
In the sixth inning, Andrew McCutchen left the game after reaching on a leadoff single, following an 11-pitch at-bat. McCutchen was removed with left quad tightness, and is listed as day-to-day.
The at-bat from McCutchen saw him go down 2-2 after four pitches. He fouled off two pitches, before getting ball three. He then fouled off three more pitches. The 11th pitch of the at-bat was a 94.5 MPH fastball that he sent into left field for a single.
The hit sparked the big inning for the Pirates. Bryan Reynolds followed McCutchen’s lengthy at-bat with his 19th home run of the year, putting the Pirates up 3-1. Connor Joe hit a double in the next at-bat, and was later brought in on an RBI single by Joey Bart.
McCutchen’s at-bat may have shaken up Arizona right-hander Slade Cecconi. He opened the Reynolds at-bat with an automatic ball on a pitch timer violation, and mostly worked outside to Reynolds. From there, he abandoned his fastball, sticking to the secondary stuff, which was hit by Joe and Bart.
While he’s no longer the MVP-caliber player he was in his prime, McCutchen is still a slightly above-average hitter relative to the league, and ranks as the fourth best on the Pirates this year. Hopefully he doesn’t miss much time.
IKF Joins the Team
Recently acquired infielder Isiah Kiner-Falefa joined the Pirates on Saturday, returning from the injured list. He went 0-for-3 in his debut, while playing second base for the injured Nick Gonzales.
IKF was having a career year with Toronto, batting .292/.338/.420, and putting up an above-average wOBA and wRC+ for the first time in his seven-year MLB career.
The Pirates sent Alika Williams down to Triple-A as the corresponding move. They called up Williams after Gonzales went down, though Williams was only used as a pinch runner. Jared Triolo started all five games with Gonzales out. Kiner-Falefa has put up better numbers than Triolo, even in the normal years of his career, and should provide the Pirates with an upgrade.
Bubba Chandler Promoted
After throwing seven innings on Saturday, the Pirates promoted Bubba Chandler to Indianapolis, per Alex Stumpf.
Chandler joins Thomas Harrington, who was also recently promoted, to give the Pirates two more top prospects at the top level of the minors. Both pitchers could emerge as late-season options to get a preview in the majors. They’ll also be the top options in 2025 to join the rotation, with Braxton Ashcraft also factoring into the mix.
Between the trio of Keller/Skenes/Jones, the emergence this year of Bailey Falter and Luis Ortiz, and the eventual return of Johan Oviedo, the Pirates are set in the rotation. Chandler, Harrington, and Ashcraft will give them a deep group in 2025, to the point where the Pirates might not even need an outside rotation addition for the first time in years.
This is a pitching staff that looks like it could contend for a long time.
Pirates Prospect Watch
Billy Cook and Nick Yorke combined to hit four doubles for Indianapolis on Saturday, after the Pirates acquired both players at the trade deadline. Cook and Yorke will give the Pirates offensive depth out of Triple-A the remainder of the year. Read about their outings, and all of Saturday’s minor league action, in the latest Pirates Prospect Watch:
Pirates Prospect Watch: Trade Deadline Additions Billy Cook and Nick Yorke Double Up
