German polymath and writer Johann Wolfgang von Goethe once wrote of Nature:
“There is constant life in her, motion and development; and yet she remains where she was. She is eternally changing, nor for a moment does she stand still. Of rest she knows nothing, and to all stagnation she has affixed her curse. She is steadfast; her step is measured, her exceptions rare, her laws immutable.”
We are all subjected to the laws of Nature, though Nature herself takes many forms. The construct of Major League Baseball is itself a form of Nature.
The league is constantly in motion and development. Every team is trying to win, finding new methods of victory. The trends are always changing. The moment you are ahead of the game, some team is figuring out a way to make your methods obsolete.
Teams who remain stagnant feel the curse that Nature bestows upon inaction. Teams who operate with inaction are bound to feel Nature’s wrath. The wrath of Nature, as it pertains to Major League Baseball, is losing.
The Pittsburgh Pirates operate with inaction.
Pirates Were Late to Dismiss Their International Scouting Director
“She loves herself, and clings eternally to herself with eyes and hearts innumerable. She has divided herself that she may be her own delight. She is ever making new creatures spring up to delight in her, and imparts herself insatiably.” – Johann Wolfgang von Goethe
On Wednesday morning, it was reported that the Pirates dismissed their International Scouting Director, Junior Vizcaino, along with Special Advisor to Latin American Operations Luis Silverio.
These changes were necessary. I wrote earlier this month about how the Pirates were failing, from the owner to the Dominican Academy. I went into more detail on the latter after the firings of Vizcaino and Silverio.
I’ll add the correction that I mistakenly attributed the signing of Luis Peralta to Vizcaino. He was signed under Rene Gayo in 2017, months before Gayo was dismissed.
Since Vizcaino took over in 2018, the Pirates have seen just one player out of Latin America make the Majors. Luis Ortiz was signed in 2018, and is the lone success story under Vizcaino. He was paid $25,000 in bonus money. The Pirates spent over $40 million dollars in international free agent bonuses under Vizcaino, which is a horrible success rate, and a massive waste of funds for a small market team.
In my latest top prospect rankings, the Pirates had zero Latin American signings in the top 20. By my rough count, they’ve had, at most, five players signed under Vizcaino who have spent significant time above A-ball.
Ben Cherington took over as the General Manager for the Pirates in late 2019, after Vizcaino had completed two international signing classes.
Looking at the Baseball America rankings heading into the 2020 season, there was one player in the top 30 signed under Vizcaino. That was Alexander Mojica, who rated 16th overall.
I’ll add a disclaimer. I was in charge of those Baseball America rankings, though I didn’t have the final say. Mojica was actually a point of disagreement. I did not have him as a top 30 prospect, but Baseball America was elevating DSL hitters into the top 30, and they were high on Mojica. I even had a discussion in the Baseball America offices with their writers where I pointed out concerns about his long-term value, due to his size and inevitability that he’d move to first base. Here at Pirates Prospects, we had Mojica as the number three prospect for the DSL Pirates at the time. He wasn’t close to the top 30. By my rankings, the Pirates had zero top 30 international players signed by Vizcaino when Cherington took over.
There were zero top 30 Latin American prospects by Vizcaino in Baseball America’s rankings heading into 2021.
Rodolfo Nolasco at 21st overall was the lone member of the 2022 list. He was traded earlier this year for Daulton Jefferies.
Luis Ortiz soared up the list to number four, heading into 2023. Dariel Lopez (24), Nolasco (27), and Axiel Plaz (28) were all at the back-end of the list. The latter three, like Mojica in 2020, were graded due to upside. Plaz is still a fringe top 30 prospect today.
Cherington retained Vizcaino through the most recent international signing period, despite very little evidence of success coming out of Latin America since 2018.
When Cherington took over in late 2019, he made the distinction that this would be a “build” and not a “rebuild”.
Keeping the same Latin American scouting department was one of many examples of years of inaction under Cherington, regardless of what you want to call the process.
Pirates Were Also Late on the MLB Draft Changes
“She spurts forth her creatures out of nothing, and tells them not whence they come and whither they go. They have only to go their way: she knows the path.” – Johann Wolfgang von Goethe
Joe DelliCarri was named the scouting director for the Pirates amateur drafts in 2012.
He oversaw the first round picks of Cole Tucker in 2014, Kevin Newman in 2015, Will Craig in 2016, and Travis Swaggerty in 2018. While there were pitching success stories from the draft, before and during DelliCarri’s time, there were clear questions about the ability to add position players.
Cherington kept the amateur scouting department largely the same in another example of inaction. DelliCarri oversaw two first overall picks and four top ten picks during the rebuild.
In the offseason following the selection of generational talent Paul Skenes — a pick the Pirates didn’t decide upon until 20 minutes before the actual pick was due — Cherington finally took action and replaced DelliCarri. The replacement was one of Cherington’s former people in Boston, Justin Horowitz.
I don’t know what kind of inaction involved waiting until the last minute to decide on Skenes. I knew Skenes was a real generational talent days before the draft.
The fact that Cherington took over a build, or rebuild, and spent four years with the exact same amateur and international scouting departments, is a colossal failure of inaction.
What was being built?
You might remember the borderline propaganda at the outset that came from Cherington about how the Pirates’ system was bare when he took over. That system had Bryan Reynolds, Mitch Keller, Ke’Bryan Hayes, Oneil Cruz, and others who have largely led to the limited success of the current Major League team.
They also had Starling Marte, Joe Musgrove, Jameson Taillon, Josh Bell, Adam Fraizer, Jacob Stallings, Clay Holmes, and others who Cherington largely got nothing for in his teardown trades.
The system today ranks lower than it did when Cherington took over. There are still going to be players who emerge from this bottom-third system. That said, what outcome would you expect other than a bottom-third result when no changes were made?
If the system was truly bare when Cherington took over, that would point to a need to upgrade the scouting departments at the entry level. Cherington was inactive for years in making these changes, as the Pirates tanked and banked on their ability to add amateur players from the draft and international ranks during that “build” period.
The fact that Cherington retained Vizcaino and DelliCarri year-after-year essentially made them his guys. He didn’t originally hire them, but he doubled-down that they would lead his rebuilding efforts at two crucial stages.
If Cherington couldn’t recognize that these two couldn’t identify talent, then how successful will his next picks be?
The Development Has Been Largely Outsourced
“She lets every child work at her, every fool judge of her, and thousands pass her by and see nothing; and she has her joy in them all, and in them all finds her account.” – Johann Wolfgang von Goethe
Development is a factor when discussing amateur players eventually becoming Major Leaguers.
The Pirates initially stressed an individualized development plan under new farm director John Baker, who was hired about a year after Cherington took over.
Under this individualized approach, there have been more success stories on the pitching side than before. Don’t understate how much of a win that is for the Pirates. It’s why they have a shot at being a contender going forward.
The hitting side has been atrocious. Regardless of hitting versus pitching, the development from within has been another case of inaction.
Most of the success stories we’ve heard have come from players training at outside facilities.
Mitch Keller, for example, overhauled his stuff at Tread Athletics.
Jared Jones gained confidence after a discussion with minor league pitcher Thomas Harrington. I’ve heard just as many stories of Harrington helping other pitchers with their arsenals as I’ve heard the Pirates coaches leading to productive developments.
The Pirates have largely outsourced their development program. They allow players to go to any source to improve, but they haven’t built an internal program that is preferable to the outside facilities, or the advice from players developing within their system.
Again, what exactly has been built?
Oneil Cruz Thrown Into the Fire in Center Field
“She envelops man in darkness, and urges him constantly to the light. She makes him dependent on the earth, heavy and sluggish, and always rouses him up afresh.” – Johann Wolfgang von Goethe
On Wednesday night, Oneil Cruz made his debut in center field.
Cruz was moved to shortstop full-time in 2018, and spent two years at the position before Cherington took over. The scouting report heading into 2020, from the Baseball America rankings, read:
“Cruz has a lot of solid tools to work with and the highest ceiling of anyone in the Pirates’ system, though he also is the hardest to project. At 6-foot-7, Cruz is unusually tall for shortstop, though he is a plus runner with surprising dexterity to play the position. Scouts are mixed on whether he will stick at shortstop, with the safer projection being right field with his plus arm strength.”
This is an organization that took all of a week before moving recently acquired second baseman Nick Yorke to center field for the first time in his career. They move almost every prospect to play multiple positions. Yet, Cruz spent his entire time under Cherington at shortstop, outside of 81 innings in left field in 2022.
The Pirates banked on Cruz being a shortstop, with no backup plan for his positioning in five years under Cherington — up until now as they throw him into the fire in center field at the Major League level.
To his credit, Cruz handled his first game well. He moved quickly to line drives, fielded the ball cleanly, made the correct throws back to the infield, and fired a 103.3 MPH bullet to the plate that almost got a runner. The throw led to an error for Cruz, for the simple reason that Yasmani Grandal can’t catch a baseball.
There were alternates to Cruz at shortstop. They very first trade under Cherington sent Starling Marte for Liover Peguero.
The Pirates took a year before giving Peguero work at second base, and he’s received increased time at the secondary position over the last two years, with Cruz being the choice at shortstop. Peguero is having a down year in Triple-A, but perhaps the possibility of making it as a shortstop will spark his bat. He has been hitting well lately, with four homers in the last week.
Peguero is a better defender than Cruz at short, but was largely thrown into the second base mix this year, and quickly fell behind Nick Gonzales and Jared Triolo.
The best shortstop option the Pirates have in the majors right now is Isiah Kiner-Falefa. He was acquired at the deadline for one of the few hitting success stories in this system, Charles McAdoo. The Pirates also received money for Kiner-Falefa, which means they could have traded a lesser prospect to get him at full salary.
Kiner-Falefa is a below-average hitter in his career. He was having a career year with Toronto, but quickly regressed back to his career numbers with the Pirates. He has better defensive abilities than Cruz, although that’s not difficult with Cruz being one of the worst defenders at the position.
Ironically enough, in a game where Cruz looked fine in center field, Kiner-Falefa had a costly play that led to the Pirates blowing a 10-3 lead to the Cubs, losing 14-10 in one of the worst losses in franchise history.
At What Point Are The Coaches and Manager At Fault?
“The drama she plays is always new, because she is always bringing new spectators. Life is her fairest invention, and Death is her device for having life in abundance.” – Johann Wolfgang von Goethe
After the loss on Wednesday, manager Derek Shelton repeated a version of “we just need to play better”, albeit with more expressed frustration than he’s shown in five seasons with the Pirates.
The Pirates had a shot at being contenders at various times this year. For the second year in a row, they opened hot, only to quickly enter a disastrous slump. They had a hot streak in July, only to enter another horrible slump in August.
The hitting has been an obvious issue all season, dating back to last year when Ke’Bryan Hayes went outside the Major League staff to seek help from Altoona hitting coach Jon Nunnally. For an organization that preaches individualized development, the response to this individualized preference was to fire Nunnally and retain hitting coach Andy Haines.
Haines was retained throughout this year, even with so many players putting up their worst numbers of their careers early in the season. Rowdy Tellez went outside of the organization for help, and went from one of the worst hitters in the league to one of the best hitting first basemen. Yet, the Pirates remained inactive in making a move from Haines, or from Shelton.
How many “we just need to play better” losses will it take before Shelton is seen as the reason why this team consistently fails to perform?
What is the role of the manager, if not to bring consistency to the roster? This roster has been anything but consistent.
Yet, Shelton has been retained by Cherington, and Haines has been retained as the hitting coach. That’s five years of inaction under Cherington with Shelton, with the last two years being crucial double-downs on Shelton as the leader of this team.
Haines led Milwaukee to three years of a bottom-third offense, and after two years of the same result with the Pirates, they kept him around for a third year of some of the worst offense in the game.
The players need to play better. But what message does it send the players when the manager and coaches get a free pass?
The Pirates can’t limit their actions to the players.
Does Ben Cherington Deserve Another Chance to Build?
“Man obeys her laws even in opposing them: he works with her even when he wants to work against her.” – Johann Wolfgang von Goethe
I respect Ben Cherington on a personal level. I see him as a guy who wants to give opportunities to good people, and who doesn’t like dismissing people from their jobs.
For example, DelliCarri wasn’t dismissed. He was promoted into a more advisor role as Vice President of Player Personnel. There have been other cases where people have been removed from their roles, only to move to a different high-level role.
From a business standpoint, I have had doubts about Cherington from the start. I’ve kept those doubts private, as I feel there could be negative impacts with early negative analysis. I’ve also sent unsolicited advice behind the scenes in 2021 and 2023, mostly regarding ideas I had to improve the hitting approach, and how to identify confidence in players.
I didn’t enjoy writing about how the Pirates needed to move on from Neal Huntington in 2018-19, and I wasn’t looking forward to the possibility of reaching the 2024 season and having to go through that same process with Cherington. Perhaps what I like most about Cherington is that I emphasize with his tendency to continue giving good people a chance. As a Michael Scott style manager myself, I don’t like saying “You’re fired.” I like saying “You’re hired, and you can work here as long as you want.”
However, I’m not the General Manager of a Major League organization, and the Pirates only share the worst comparisons to a Dunder Mifflin operation. The role of General Manager requires difficult decisions, where you’re ultimately telling good people that they aren’t getting the job done, and no longer have a job.
Cherington was inactive in making a change from the draft and international scouting departments for years, despite lamenting a lack of talent in the system when he took over. He kept DelliCarri and Vizcaino through a years-long tank and rebuild, and the result has been a bottom-third farm system and a fifth place Major League team.
He’s been inactive in making a change to the on-field coaching and management, despite the team moving out of their rebuilding period over the last two seasons. Shelton’s team has seen two early season slumps, and more losing stretches than winning stretches. Haines is now in year six of being a Major League hitting coach leading to a bottom-third offense.
Cherington has been inactive in the offseason. The Pirates won 75 games last year, and had Paul Skenes and Jared Jones set to arrive this season, with Oneil Cruz hopefully playing his first full season in the Majors. Their offseason approach was to quickly sign Rowdy Tellez, then wait until late in the offseason to add whatever players fell through the cracks. That level of inaction is the same approach he’s taken the previous offseasons.
At this point, what Cherington has done is bought himself a second chance through inaction. He replaced the draft leadership this season. He’s now replacing the international scouting leadership. He might even replace the manager and hitting coach eventually. And that might buy him another year, maybe two, of getting another shot to build the Pirates into real contenders — under the guise of “it didn’t work the first time around, so here’s the adjustment.”
The problem with this second chance is that Cherington’s repeated choices were inaction, when action was needed.
Again, he didn’t hire DelliCarri or Vizcaino into their roles, but he kept them long enough that they became his choices during a crucial time. He remained inactive when Shelton and Haines continued showing an inability to bring consistent success to the Major League roster when the team was exiting their tanking years.
What confidence should be placed in Cherington to get things right this time around?
His job is ultimately to determine which people have the capacity to do their jobs well, and he’s failed at that over and over by keeping the same people and getting the same poor results. The next hirings will be long-term moves. Yet, Cherington hasn’t shown that he’s capable of adding the people capable of winning and produce results for a small market team like the Pirates.
Nothing has been built in five years.
The Pirates, through inaction, largely have the same approach they had under Huntington. It’s the same scouting departments, until year five. The development has been outsourced. The manager is the original plan from when Cherington took over. The hitting coach is one of few changes, and that hasn’t worked out at all.
If the Pirates are overhauling their system, I think the overhaul should include Cherington. Giving him another shot at building a winner, after five seasons, would be another level of inaction. Other teams have fired General Managers for better performances than Cherington has put up in this same timeframe.
The performance from Cherington has largely been inaction.
That raises questions as to whether he will be active going forward — in the offseason additions, in replacing the manager and coaching staff, or next year when the team needs a timely call-up to give the roster a boost.
There are important decisions coming up, and Cherington has yet to even attempt to fail by taking the same actions he’ll need to take with those decisions. As a result, he has failed through inaction, and we can only assume he will continue to remain inactive when action is needed.
Early Fears Confirmed?
“She has placed me in this world; she will also lead me out of it. I trust myself to her. She may do with me as she pleases. She will not hate her work. I did not speak of her. No! what is true and what is false, she has spoken it all. Everything is her fault, everything is her merit.” – Johann Wolfgang von Goethe
I’m going to close this out with a poem that I wrote in late 2020.
At the time, my focus was on being a better writer, aiming to add brevity for my 350-word articles at Baseball America. I was also rebuilding my own empire of Pirates Prospects for the hope of a future where the Pirates might be winners with a top minor league system.
I had doubts, and those doubts made it difficult to even resume this project. Long-time readers might recall that I shut the site down for a year as I worked behind the scenes planning my new approach. That approach was largely to avoid burnout, while competing with the inevitable wave of new media competition to come.
This poem was the earliest way I expressed those doubts, though I wanted to reserve my public doubts for a few years to allow the process play out. The poem is called “Rebuilding”.
Rebuilding
I can see how things work
I can see the future
Across multiple realities
And all the waves through the universe
Each step we take a ripple in time
Like when a stone is thrown into a pond
Scaring a butterfly off a nearby lilypad
The flap of wings sets forth a chain of events
Empires collapse if given enough time
Time is an endless sea with no horizon
Which no amount of splashing can disrupt
But the butterfly soars above
Changing the course with each flap of wings
The fastest swimmer is the loneliest swimmer
The loneliest swimmer fears he is lost
Open water, no horizon all around
Not sure if the rest of the league has found land
If you aren’t the empire, you’re the enemy
Armed with the knowledge that empires fall
So you let them take their steps
You swim in a direction you think you’ll find land
Where you can build your empire
With the scraps of the old empire
That float to your new shore
-Tim Williams
I didn’t want to get to 2024 with a rebuild effort that failed, and another turnover needed in the front office. Yet, here we are, and I’ve tried to remain optimistic this entire time, hoping for a much better result.
The Nature of Major League Baseball is a difficult environment. It’s even more difficult when you’re tasked with making the Pittsburgh Pirates a winner, under owner Bob Nutting. I have sympathy for those difficulties. But, five years of inaction is definitely not the way to adapt to Nature’s flow.
Pirates Prospect Watch
Remember when I said that players from this current minor league system will eventually be productive Major Leaguers? Two of them had big nights on Wednesday. Bubba Chandler lowered his Triple-A ERA to 1.17, with one unearned run in five innings. Termarr Johnson hit his first homer at the Double-A level. You can read about all of Wednesday’s minor league action in the latest Pirates Prospect Watch.
