This has been a busy month for minor league roster moves.
When I started this site 16 years ago, the MLB Draft was held in June. Teams had two months to sign their draft picks. The MLB Trade Deadline was at the end of July, but there was also a second trade deadline at the end of August which involved the waiver wire. As a result, there were three full months where MLB systems saw changes from added draft picks, and players added/removed from the system in trades.
Today, the draft, all of the draft pick signings, and the lone trade deadline are crammed into a stretch of less than three weeks. I don’t know if that’s better or worse, but I do know that it is much more chaotic.
As a result of the chaos, there have been a lot of changes to my top 50 tiered rankings, which I updated at the start of July with Version 3.0 on the season. Those rankings received an update after the draft, adding the new picks to the system in Version 3.1.
The Pirates wrapped up their trade deadline this week by dealing away five prospects from my latest top 50, while also adding two prospects in return who helped to offset the prospect loss. Be sure to check out my column on the trade deadline, recapping all seven trades the Pirates made.
My plan is to update the system rankings in full over the next week, to provide Version 4.0 of the 2024 Top 50 Tiered rankings. Today, I wanted to focus on the impact of the trade deadline to the system, using the tiered rankings to better illustrate how the overall talent pool was impacted by all of the moves.
TIER THREE: FUTURE STARTERS
The biggest prospect on the move at the deadline was infielder Charles McAdoo, who the Pirates traded 1-for-1 to get utility player Isiah Kiner-Falefa. McAdoo was one of the biggest breakouts in the Pirates’ system this year, and ended up being ranked ninth overall in my latest update. He actually started the year outside of my top 50, before moving up into the top 30 after a month, and eventually hitting his way into the top ten. The final pre-deadline report on McAdoo:
*****
CHARLES MCADOO, 3B
CV: 25 | FV: 50 | MLB ETA: 2026 | FV ETA: 2027+ | Trend: UP
McAdoo has been the best hitting story in the Pirates system this year. Drafted in the 13th round last year out of San Jose State, he has combined for a .320/.412/.553 line in pro ball across three levels. He was recently promoted to Altoona, where he continues hitting with a 1.022 OPS through his first ten games. I decided to grade him as if he’s a future starter, though conservatively enough to project him arriving in the majors at age 24 and being a starter at age 25. That still makes him the second best hitting prospect in the system, and you could rank him higher if you’re buying the early results.
*****
One day before McAdoo was traded, the Pirates traded RHP Quinn Priester to the Boston Red Sox, receiving infielder Nick Yorke. I put together an initial prospect ranking of Yorke that night, and had him ranked one spot ahead of McAdoo. In the grand scheme of things, the Pirates had a wash in talent for this tier. They traded away a guy they were developing at third base, who might be better suited for right field. They added a second base option who can also play left field. Both of them can hit.
What I like about Yorke is that he’s made some positive adjustments at the plate this year. He made an adjustment last year to raise his hands high like he was wielding a battle axe, with a focus on pulling the ball for power. This year, he’s lowered his hands, and set his sights on hitting line drives to right-center field. Since the adjustment, Yorke is hitting .310/.408/.490 in 169 plate appearances at the Triple-A level.
Yorke and McAdoo are the same age, with McAdoo older by less than a month. McAdoo has been playing in Double-A, and while he’s still hitting, he has some work before he reaches Triple-A to take the next challenge. Yorke is already at the Triple-A level, hitting in a small sample. The Pirates will send Yorke to Indianapolis, to see if he can continue his success this year at the plate. He enters the system as a top ten prospect.
TIER FOUR: FRINGE STARTERS
The Pirates made a straight-up prospect swap, sending 22-year-old RHP Patrick Reilly to the Baltimore Orioles, and receiving 25-year-old super utility player Billy Cook. I’ve got both players graded as fringe starters, with Reilly slightly ahead of Cook. That said, the purpose of the tiers is to show that there’s really no grand difference in talent. The Pirates traded from a system strength of lower-level pitching, and filled a need of upper-level hitting depth.
Here was the report on Reilly at the start of the month:[ppp_patron_only level=”5″ silent=”no”]
*****
PATRICK REILLY, RHP
CV: 25 | FV: 50 | MLB ETA: 2026 | FV ETA: 2027+ | Trend: UP
The Pirates drafted Reilly in the fifth round last year, and he’s been one of the best non-Skenes pitchers in the draft class. Reilly currently leads the Pirates’ minor league system with 82 strikeouts, fueled by a fastball that sits mid-90s, and a pair of sliders that generate a lot of swing and miss. He also does well to work fast and mix his pitches well. Reilly has dealt with control problems, but is showing improvements in that area, and could be ready for a second-half promotion to Altoona.
*****
What I like about Cook is that he’s made improvements at the plate over the last few years, especially in the swing and miss department. He cut his strikeout rate from 31.8% in 2022, to 25% last year in Double-A, to a 22.7% rate in Triple-A this year. He also shows a power/speed combo, which led to 24 homers and 30 stolen bases last year at the Double-A level.
This year, Cook is hitting .279/.372/.485 with 11 homers and 12 stolen bases at the Triple-A level. He can play first, second, third, and all three outfield spots. He has more value to the Pirates in the outfield, with average defensive potential fueled by a plus arm that allows him to play all three spots. He gets lowered marks due to his hit tool, but the swing and miss improvements over the last two years show that he’s developing that in a positive direction. Cook enters the system ranked 15th overall, a few spots below where I had Reilly ranked at the start of the month.
TIER FIVE: SYSTEM DEPTH
When you hear about the Pirates having a deep system, this is the tier people are talking about. Tiers 1-4 in my rankings cover the top 16 prospects in the system, who are all projected to have a good path to being at least fringe-starters. There can be potential starters beyond those first four tiers, but the risk level increases. You either have a lower ceiling and a higher floor, or a higher ceiling and more risk.
This is the group you’d prefer to trade from, and the Pirates made one move that impacted this tier.
At the deadline, the Pirates traded one of their highest ceiling and highest risk pitching prospects, sending RHP Jun-Seok Shim to the Marlins as one of two players for outfielder Bryan De La Cruz. Shim began the year as a top 20 prospect, but moved down in my rankings due to injury. He remained here, despite only eight innings in pro ball, due to the lofty reports on his stuff. Here was my report on him from earlier this month:
*****
JUN-SEOK SHIM, RHP
CV: 10 | FV: 50 | MLB ETA: 2028 | FV ETA: 2029+ | Trend: DOWN
The reports on Shim have been great, with the 6′ 4″, 215 pound right-hander from Korea having one of the best fastballs in the system. That’s not just the lowest levels, but even when compared to upper-level guys. He’s only pitched eight innings in pro ball, and is currently out with a right shoulder injury. He’s dealt with an elbow and pectoral injury in the past, and the constant injuries make him closer to a raw development project who needs to learn how to pitch while staying healthy.
*****
This is just a straight talent loss, though again, the Pirates ended up trading their highest risk player from a tier that stretched from prospects 16-32. They had a lot of depth in this tier.
TIER SIX: SLEEPERS
When I did my version 3.0 rankings update, LHP Luis Peralta had just moved up to Double-A Altoona. I’m typically lower in ranking relievers until they’ve reached Double-A and had success. Peralta had an 0.60 ERA in 30 innings of relief with High-A Greensboro, along with a 50:15 K/BB ratio. I wrote about him as a sleeper prospect at the start of June, and I think he has since emerged from this tier.
Peralta pitched seven times for Altoona, allowing two runs in 9.2 innings, with a 14:3 K/BB ratio. A lefty reliever with a mid-90s fastball, a quality slider, and a promising changeup, he’s starting to look like a future MLB reliever. That future might not be too far in the distance. He would have moved into the top 30 in my next ranking update, getting the bump to Tier Five as one of the lower ceiling, higher floor system depth prospects.
The Pirates traded Peralta to the Colorado Rockies, getting left-handed relief rental Jalen Beeks. There’s a chance they could regret this move as soon as next year. Peralta could continue his rise and reach the majors next year in his second full season as a reliever. Beeks, meanwhile, is a free agent after the season.
What matters for the Pirates is winning this year. They’ve had a lot of success at bringing in relievers who have horrible numbers, only to see those relievers suddenly turn into lights out options in middle relief. Beeks will replace the injured Ryan Borucki — one of said relievers who improved with the Pirates — giving the Pirates an extra left-hander behind Aroldis Chapman, and additional middle relief depth. Peralta was the price for this addition. It’s not a detrimental price, and will be forgotten if Beeks has success down the stretch.
TIER SEVEN: SLEEPER DEPTH
The second part of the Bryan De La Cruz trade saw the Pirates deal infielder Garret Forrester away. I had Forrester as the number 50 prospect in my latest update, ranked as the top guy in tier seven. This is more of a deeper sleeper tier. This group previously started with the 50th best prospect, and after the deadline extends to the 64th best prospect in the system.
I had Forrester elevated in this tier for his higher floor. I was also lower on Forrester than most outlets. He had a .421 on-base percentage in Single-A Bradenton, with below-average power that would have limited him as a corner infielder. The Pirates were trying him out behind the plate this year, which could have elevated his value if he was able to stick through the upper levels.
The upside from Forrester is not that high, with a ceiling of a bench option, and a more likely upside that he maxes out as Triple-A depth. I wasn’t a huge fan of adding the power-only De La Cruz when his name was mentioned in rumors, but the fact that the Pirates got him for one of their riskiest system depth prospects, along with a tier seven deep sleeper who lacks upside, makes the trade a win for me. De La Cruz probably isn’t going to do more than bring a below-replacement-level outfield spot up to replacement-level. The Pirates also didn’t pay anyone they’ll really miss in the long-term for this upgrade.
Following the trades, plus the graduation from prospect status of RHP Kyle Nicolas, there are four spots remaining inside the top 50. There are 18 players in tier seven who you could rank for the final spots. The top four in my existing rankings are Bradenton RHP Carlos Jimenez, 2024 5th round college outfielder Will Taylor, Bradenton OF Shalin Polanco, and Indianapolis RHP Aaron Shortridge.
I’ll have my next system update to the overall rankings in the next week, so there’s no guarantee those four remain as top 50 prospects. That said, if you like their potential enough, they’re within the range to be considered for the end of the Pirates’ top 50 list.
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