On Thursday, the Tampa Bay Rays traded Randy Arozarena to the Seattle Mariners, receiving two prospects and a player to be named later. The prospects acquired by Tampa were ranked 14th and 15th in Seattle’s system by Baseball America.
When an actual trade like this happens with another team, the instant reaction is to look at the number 14 and 15 prospects for the Pirates and assume the values are the same.
For perspective, that would be RHP Zander Mueth and infielder Mitch Jebb.
It’s not that simple. On the outside of the game, we rely on outlets like Baseball America, MLB Pipeline, and others to give a view of the system rankings for each team. There’s generally some sort of consensus, mixed with a few outliers for each outlet.
Thomas Harrington is an example of the consensus. He’s ranked fifth overall in the system by BA, Pipeline, and even in my own rankings. He ranks behind Bubba Chandler and Braxton Ashcraft in all three rankings. And yet, I think you could make an argument that Harrington will be the better pitcher of the three. He doesn’t have the elite fastball that the other two have, but his control and command is way ahead, and Harrington just knows how to pitch.
The question to ask is how many teams might have Harrington as the best pitcher in this system?
Inside the game, I don’t think there’s a consensus prospect ranking. There are 29 teams who have a ranking of the Pirates’ system, and they’re not all going to follow the Baseball America rankings. Some teams are going to find more value in players who are lower ranked in the public rankings. Beauty is in the eye of the beholder.
This is seen often with the Rays. They are constantly acquiring prospects whose public values don’t match the internal values of the Rays. The Arozarena trade is a great example.
Not the most recent one.
In January 2020, the Rays added Arozarena from the Cardinals in a multi-player and draft pick deal which saw the Rays send number three prospect Matthew Liberatore away. Arozarena was ranked 10th overall in the Cardinals system, and entered the Rays system ranked 14th. A year later, Arozarena showed what the Rays saw in him, and was ranked the number two prospect in their system.
The lead of Arozarena’s BA scouting report in 2021 reads as follows:
“When the Rays acquired Arozarena in a trade that sent touted lefthander Matthew Liberatore to the Cardinals, it seemed like a high price to pay. Those concerns quickly faded.”
These days, you can’t log onto Twitter without seeing people looking for engagement with trade proposals. That includes Pirates fans shopping Bubba Chandler and Termarr Johnson in every single trade idea, as if they’re the only two players with value. It includes an idea of prospect trade value that is based off one or two opinions of that prospect’s value.
When it comes to the actual trades, only two opinions of a prospect’s value matter: The two trading teams.
The Pirates might be lower on a certain player in their system than another team. Their trade partner might be higher on a certain player than everyone else. When a trade is ultimately made, the public tries to make sense of it, usually by putting it in the perspective of public values.
The hope is that the Pirates know their players better than every other team, while also knowing the systems of other teams better than those teams. That’s a lot to ask, but the Rays show it is possible.
Roster Moves
The Pirates made a few roster moves prior to Friday’s game. They previously had placed outfielder Bryan Reynolds on the bereavement list. Ji Hwan Bae was recalled from Triple-A to take his spot.
Bae is hitting .355/.434/.497 with five homers and 12 steals in 214 plate appearances with Indianapolis this year. He was hitting .373/.421/.510 during the month of July, prior to the call-up. Bae has yet to carry his Triple-A success to the majors, but he’s also never hit this well in Triple-A.
Hunter Stratton was activated from the 15-day injured list, after pitching 1.2 scoreless innings for Triple-A in his latest rehab appearance. The Pirates designated left-handed pitcher Josh Fleming for assignment to make room on the roster, which also opens up a 40-man spot.
The Pirates also shut down the rehab work of left-handed reliever Ryan Borucki. His rehab started on June 25th in Indianapolis. Since then, he’s been moved to Altoona, returned to Pittsburgh for evaluations, and then went to Indianapolis for two more appearances. He allowed six runs in 2.1 innings across his last three rehab appearances.
Baseball America’s Updated Top 30
I might be a homer as the Pirates’ Baseball America contributor, but I prefer the way BA updates their rankings. Instead of adding players to the existing rankings, they’re always re-evaluating the system of all 30 MLB teams. This gives an up-to-date look at each system, which is valuable around the trade deadline.
BA updated their top 30 rankings, adding the new draft picks to the mix. Their Pirates ranking had first rounder Konnor Griffin ranked second overall. They also had early round prep picks Wyatt Sanford (6th) and Levi Sterling (9th) ranked inside the top ten.
Third round left-hander Josh Hartle was ranked 17th. Sixth round right-hander Matt Ager ranked 22nd to round out the picks inside the top 30. There are some interesting ranking updates among the players who were already in the system.
Pirates Sign Five Picks
The Pirates announced the signing of five more of their 2024 draft picks, including fifth round outfielder Will Taylor. They signed Taylor to an above-slot deal for $500,000, tapping into some of the savings they created with their earlier signings.
They also signed 12th round catcher Camden Janik, 13th round right-handed pitcher Matt McShane, 18th round right-handed pitcher Jake Shirk, and 19th round right-handed pitcher Joe Vogatsky. Read more about all of the picks signed on Friday in the draft signing article.
The Draft Pick Signing Tracker has been updated with the moves and bonus information. The Pirates have now signed 15 of their 21 players from the draft class. After the over-slot bonus to Taylor, they have $150,600 to go over-slot without incurring a penalty. They can spend $850,625 over their bonus pool without losing a future draft pick.
Pirates Prospect Watch
Thomas Harrington threw 5.2 shutout innings for Altoona on Friday. Henry Davis had three hits and is doing a good job lately of limiting strikeouts. Termarr Johnson hit his 11th homer of the year. Read about all of Friday’s minor league action in the latest Pirates Prospect Watch:
Pirates Prospect Watch: Thomas Harrington Continues to Shine in Altoona
