The Pittsburgh Pirates exit their day off on Thursday with a three game series on the road this weekend against the Atlanta Braves. They sit 39-41, and would need a three game sweep to sit above .500 on Monday morning. A two game series victory would be a good outcome, but would leave them on the other side of .500 after this series.
Yesterday, I wrote about the players who could upgrade the Pirates if they decide to add at the MLB trade deadline. There are three positions I highlighted as needs: First base, center field, and right field.
The Pirates could probably upgrade right field the easiest, taking a gamble on a role player, or even adding one of the abundance of good regulars. There are some first base upgrade options, but I think their best hope is Rowdy Tellez continuing to hit through the trade deadline. If they were to upgrade center field, it would likely require a bigger trade of prospects. The same goes if they want to make a long-term splash in right field with someone like Randy Arozarena.
There are multiple options available for the Pirates to upgrade. The most expensive versions would require a prospect haul, and that leads into the conversation of who should be untouchable.
The Untouchables
The Pirates are getting to a point where their window of contention is starting to open. They have the makings of an elite trio of starting pitchers leading their rotation, along with a few long-term position players who can provide stability. This team needs an offensive upgrade, and has a minor league system that is pitching heavy.
If the Pirates took the simple approach of trading from strength to address a weakness, they could trade pitching for hitting. The need of hitting would push for any good position player to be untouchable.
If the Pirates took a different approach, focusing on the window of contention, then they would make untouchable any player who could impact the contending window, regardless of position.
I’m not going to go through a list of untouchable players, because that’s different for every trade scenario. I will highlight Bubba Chandler as an example of why a player should be untouchable.
Chandler will be the top prospect in the system by the end of this weekend, after Paul Skenes graduates prospect status. He’s got a plus fastball and developed a plus slider in the last year, with promising work on his changeup. Last night, he struck out double-digit hitters for the second start in a row, and is looking like he’s taking his game to another level.
The Pirates could trade from a strength here. They could bank on the trio of Skenes, Mitch Keller, and Jared Jones in the majors, and use Chandler as the front line trade chip to get any player they want at this deadline.
They could also bank that strength for their own use. Chandler could be in Triple-A by the end of this season, and could be in the Majors by the end of next year. From there, he joins that trio of pitchers, making it a quad group that is under combined control for three full seasons.
By trading Chandler, the Pirates have the start of a package that could get one position player on this team for the next 2-3 years.
If they keep Chandler, they could still add a hitter to upgrade this team. They could still add a hitter in the offseason for the next 2-3 years. And they could have Chandler arrive full-time next year, as the fourth member of a potentially elite group.
It would be an easy move to trade Chandler now and go all-in for the next few years. I do think the better move would be aiming to upgrade the current and future teams, while planning on Chandler being a further upgrade for that group.
“All-In”
I spent the final few years of the Neal Huntington-led Pirates saying this team needs to get to a point of a singular focus. The Pirates, under Huntington, were in No Man’s Land, trying to rebuild for the future and contend in the now at the same time.
The result was a series of Pirates seasons much like the one we see this year. The Pirates would constantly flirt with .500, never making the big trade at the deadline, and never making the big addition in the offseason. The result was often a below .500 record, with a hesitancy to make a big move until the situation magically called for it.
Since Ben Cherington has taken over, the Pirates have adopted this singular approach. They’ve been all-out for years, with very little focus on any type of upgrade at the MLB level, and complete focus on building up the minor league development system.
The window of contention has arrived, but that doesn’t mean the Pirates need to go all-in right away. It does mean the direction needs to change to winning now, rather than building for the future.
The focus should no longer be on building up the best long-term farm system at this point. That hopefully should be a continued byproduct of the work to the draft and development system over the last few years.
The focus should be on the window of contention that is building.
Keller, Jones, and Skenes are together through 2028, when Keller’s contract expires. Jones is set for free agency in 2029, and Skenes in 2030. The Pirates have Ke’Bryan Hayes and Bryan Reynolds under control through 2030-31.
From this point forward, the goal of the Pirates should be building around that core, in those years.
Any prospects who can add to that core, during those years, while representing a clear upgrade, should be kept.
Any prospects who aren’t projected to reach their upsides during those years, even if they can help beyond the window, should be available.
Building to a World Series
I view this Pirates core as the makings of a team that can actually win the World Series by the end of this decade. I don’t say that lightly, or as some homer writer for a Pirates site aiming to get clicks. I say that because of the rarity of their pitching core.
The Pirates don’t have to win it all in 2024 or even 2025.
They should be trying to win now that the core is together in the majors, as it would instill a competitive expectation for this group. The last thing the Pirates want to do is teach the apathy from the recent rebuild years to the contending core.
Every move going forward should be a further push toward winning with this core, every moment they’re together in Pittsburgh.
That can be accomplished in many ways right now, without trading a ton in prospects. This team has some areas which can be easily upgraded.
If those upgrades mean trading prospects who don’t project to be part of the core, then that’s the cost of winning.
The cost of winning might eventually include prospects who would be part of the core, as the needs for winning become more specific.
The decisions are going to be much more difficult for the Pirates going forward, because the goal is now simplified on winning a World Series. There’s no subjectivity toward that goal, like there is with the results of a rebuild. There’s just winning at all costs.
Pirates Prospects Daily
Bubba Chandler struck out 11 batters in his latest start. There was also a cycle in the DSL by Samuel Escudero. Read about Thursday’s action in the latest Pirates Prospect Watch.
Pirates Prospect Watch: Bubba Chandler is Taking His Game to the Next Level
My column yesterday looked at the players from losing teams who could upgrade the Pirates at next month’s trade deadline.
Williams: Who Could Upgrade the Pirates at the MLB Trade Deadline?
