The Pittsburgh Pirates are 9-4. They’ve started the 2024 season with surprising production from the team as a whole, seeing massive improvements from their pitching staff and their position player group.
It’s still early. There have only been 13 games played. That said, let’s look at how the Pirates have improved through the small sample of early results.
The Pitching
The Pirates rank 4th in fWAR in the young 2024 season. Their 3.72 ERA ranks 11th in the majors, while the 3.51 FIP ranks 6th.
This is a massive departure from the 2023 season. They ranked 23rd in fWAR. They ranked 22nd with a 4.61 ERA. The 4.40 FIP only gave them a boost to 21st overall.
So far, the Pirates have jumped from a bottom third pitching group to one of the top ten in the game. The biggest gains have been seen in the starting group.
Last year, the starting group ranked 27th in fWAR, with rankings of 24th for ERA (4.88) and FIP (4.63). This year’s starting group ranks 5th in WAR, while ranking 10th overall in ERA (3.72) and WHIP (3.73).
The bullpen was better than the rotation last year, ranking 11th in WAR. The 4.27 ERA ranked 19th, and the 4.09 FIP ranked 15th. This year’s group ranks 3rd in WAR, with a 3.72 ERA that ranks 13th, and a 3.15 FIP that ranks 3rd.
The starting group has seen a boost so far from offseason additions Martin Perez and Marco Gonzales. Jared Jones has also performed well through three starts, but not to the level of the lefties. Perez leads the group in ERA at 1.89, with his 3.11 FIP ranking second. Gonzales leads the group in FIP at 2.67, with a second ranked 2.45 ERA. So far, Bailey Falter is the only starter with an FIP above 3.83. Mitch Keller has a 3.40 FIP, but a 5.29 ERA, which should improve.
What’s encouraging about the reliever group is that all but two relievers this year have an FIP under 4.34. The encouraging part comes from the exceptions: David Bednar and Colin Holderman. Both should get back on track with much better numbers than they’ve shown in limited looks early this season.
That cuts both ways. The Pirates will see improvements from Bednar and Holderman. Keller will have a better ERA. However, some of the pitchers having success will regress. It’s unlikely that Perez, for example, pitches the entire year with an ERA under 2.00. And while Bednar and Holderman will improve, it is unlikely that Josh Fleming and Hunter Stratton finish with ERAs of 1.50 or less.
I think there’s more good than bad in this group, to allow for a middle of the pack group at worst, with the chance of a top ten group by the end of the year.
The Hitting
Just like the pitching, the Pirates had a bottom-third offense in 2023. The group ranked 22nd in WAR, 23rd in wOBA (.308) and 25th in wRC+ (90). From a defensive standpoint, they had the third most defensive runs, thanks in large part to Ke’Bryan Hayes at third, plus Austin Hedges and Jason Delay behind the plate.
This was a group that could play elite defense, but couldn’t hit.
This year’s position player group hasn’t made as big of a jump as the pitching staff, but they’ve climbed out of the basement, into the top half of the league. From a WAR standpoint, the Pirates rank 16th. They rank 10th with a .334 wOBA, and 13th with a 105 wRC+. Interestingly enough, they currently rank last in defensive runs, which drags down the WAR.
I would expect the defense to improve as the season goes on. The offense should stay middle of the pack or higher. My only concern with regression here are the high BABIP numbers from nearly all of their starters.
Michael A. Taylor (.520 BABIP in 2024/.321 career), Oneil Cruz (.433/.332), Andrew McCutchen (.357/.315), Ke’Bryan Hayes (.357/.322), Rowdy Tellez (.348/.256), Edward Olivares (.348/.297), and Connor Joe (.333/.305) are all candidates to see fewer balls falling in for hits than they’ve seen early in the year.
There’s a chance the position player group drops to the upper part of that bottom third tier. The pitching and improved defense could still keep the overall team winning.
Small Sample Sizes
The 2024 season is less than 10% of the way through. That 10% mark will be reached at the end of the series against the Phillies. It’s still early, and all of the numbers above represent unreliable small samples.
That said, they are encouraging.
Seeing the Pirates start the year with one of the best pitching staffs in the majors, led by improvements in both the rotation and bullpen, is the most encouraging sign.
The position player group improving to a middle of the pack group, with above-average offense, and uncharacteristically poor defense, is also encouraging.
Going forward, the pitching will regress, but should stay average to above-average. That will especially be obtainable with all of the depth the Pirates have to maintain their high level of production. The offense could regress to below average, but the fielding should improve.
A middle of the pack team across the board would indicate a .500 club. If the Pirates went .500 from this point forward, they would end the 2024 season with 84-85 wins.
The early start is encouraging, and does nothing to make me change my thought that this is going to be a winning season for the Pirates.
