What Jared Jones is doing right now is special.
You don’t normally see a rookie arrive in the majors and look like one of the best players in the game. Through six starts, Jones has a 3.18 ERA, led by a 42:5 K/BB ratio. He’s had just one outing with an ERA over 5, which was his most recent start where he allowed three runs in five innings.
The downside for Jones is that his Rookie of the Year case will see him competing against Cubs 30-year-old rookie Shota Imanaga, who led Nippon Professional Baseball in strikeouts last year. Imanaga has an 0.98 ERA in 27.2 innings this season. While Jones will have competition for Rookie of the Year, it’s a testament that his competition is someone with years of professional experience, even in another league.
What stands out the most about Jones is his strikeout rate. He ranks sixth overall in K% at 31.8. His whiff rate of 37.5% ranks first in the majors. What’s impressive about that is he also ranks first in swing percentage. Not only is Jones inducing a lot of swings, but he’s also inducing a lot of misses.[ppp_patron_only level=”5″ silent=”no”]
If you look at his Baseball Savant profile, Jones stands out for his swing and miss, led by an elite fastball/slider combo.
The fastball has led to a 34.1% whiff rate. That ranks fourth out of all players with 50+ plate appearances. He ranks 22nd in that group in run value for the four-seam, which is a pitch that has also led to some home runs.
The slider has a 44.1% whiff rate, which ranks among the top ten sliders in the game. Jones has a run value of 4 on the pitch, making it not only one of the best sliders in the game, but one of the best pitches by any Pirates pitcher this year.
Jones also is currently one of the best in the league at avoiding walks, which is a massive improvement this season. FanGraphs talked with Jones recently about his transition from a thrower to a pitcher, and Jones had some interesting comments about how he’s more mindfully using his stuff these days, compared to high school when he didn’t know what any of his stuff did.
What I like about Jones, from his time in Spring Training through his first six starts, is that he continues to develop as a pitcher. He’s not just relying on those two plus pitches. He’s also been developing his curveball and changeup, while competing exceptionally at the highest level. The curveball has a 25% whiff rate, and he throws the pitch for strikes, with an average 69 MPH exit velocity. The changeup has a 30.8% whiff rate, and has the batted ball profile to be a ground ball pitch for quick outs. He throws each pitch less than 10% of the time.
I can’t remember the last time the Pirates had a pitcher like Jones, who arrived in the Majors and immediately lived up to his prospect hype. I would go back as far as the 2004 season with Oliver Perez to find a comparable starter, although Perez had already spent time in the majors by that point and didn’t have the top 100 hype of the current-day prospect era.
The Pirates have the makings of a good long-term rotation, and Jones has established himself as part of that group. They also are trying to contend this year, and the emergence from Jones will definitely help there. This kind of quick adjustment to the big leagues shouldn’t be expected for any rookie. Jones performing so well at the start of his career is special, and speaks well for the chances of the 2024 Pirates and beyond. [/ppp_patron_only]
THIS WEEK ON PIRATES PROSPECTS
This week’s featured column for Patreon subscribers looks at the below-average offense of the Pittsburgh Pirates, and the idea of replacing hitting coach Andy Haines as a solution.
**Williams: The Pirates Are Severely Lacking on Offense
Jared Jones has been putting up better numbers than any Pirates rookie I can remember for decades. I looked at the early results from the right-hander, who is a Rookie of the Year candidate.
**Jared Jones is Having a Special Start to His MLB Career – READING
The Pirates drafted Henry Davis first overall in 2021, with hopes of getting a power hitting catcher. He’s not hitting for power this year, and grades below-average behind the plate, which might necessitate a change.
**Henry Davis Has Questions on Both Sides of His Game
Paul Skenes is schedule for a two-start week this week, for the first time in his pro career. As the top prospect gets to a regular workload, I look at when he might arrive in the Majors, and how many innings he might throw.
**When Will Paul Skenes Arrive in the Majors?
The Pirates went with Jared Triolo as their starting second baseman out of Spring Training, which was a move that was deserved. After his early results, and early results from Nick Gonzales in Triple-A, they might need to make a change.
**Jared Triolo Looks Like a Major Leaguer, But Not a Starter
Depth is going to be crucial for the 2024 Pirates to have a winning season. They’ve already seen a few players step up to contribute in the Majors. I looked at five depth options who have excelled this year, led by RHP Hunter Stratton.
