Nick Gonzales is having a great start to his 2024 season. The 2020 first rounder is batting .362/.413/.552 in Triple-A across 63 plate appearances, with a 19% strikeout rate.
The encouraging stat is the lowered strikeout rate. Gonzales struck out 26.6% of the time last year in Triple-A, and 28.1% in his time in the majors. He mostly struggled against offspeed and breaking stuff. He’s got a quick swing that dips down into the zone rapidly, before lifting back up over top of anything that’s not a fastball.
Facing 124 fastballs this year, Gonzales has done well to make contact with the pitch. He’s swung and missed at just 8.1% of fastballs he’s seen this year, with 12.1% going for hits.
Gonzales isn’t faring the same against offspeed and breaking stuff, which is less encouraging.[ppp_patron_only level=”5″ silent=”no”]
The middle infielder has faced 21 changeups this year, with eight swing and miss for a 38.1% rate. He has one hit, for a 4.8% rate.
Breaking pitches have been the bigger issue, and they’re still a problem. Gonzales has faced 69 breaking pitches, and has swung and missed at 23.2%. He has five hits for a 7.2% rate. Opposing pitchers are attacking Gonzales heavily with the slider, which accounts for 56 of the 69 breaking pitches he’s seen.
There are a lot of small sample sizes at play here, from the 63 plate appearances to the 214 overall pitches thrown within those appearances. Going with another small sample size, in his last four games, Gonzales has a 29.4% strikeout rate.
When he was drafted seventh overall, there was a lot of talk about Gonzales being an elite hitter. This has shown true against the fastball, but the same swing that times up fastballs so well can get exposed to the breaking stuff. Gonzales is direct to the ball, with no margin for error with his swing plane that allows the bat to stay in the zone when a non-fastball rapidly diverts its path.
With the underlying swing and miss issues against changeups and breaking pitches, that 19% strikeout rate on the season seems like a mirage that could disappear with more playing time. Gonzales is currently benefitting from a .444 BABIP on the overall numbers, with a big reduction in walks.
Gonzales is being more aggressive, which may explain the drop in walks. He’s swinging at 59.3% of pitches this year, after swinging at 49.7% last year. His overall whiff rate is 26.8%, slightly down from 29.7% last year, but with a higher frequency of swings. The swing and miss still exists, especially with non-fastballs, but he’s putting more balls in play.
The overall results from Gonzales look great. His history of swing and miss, and that issue remaining this year, means he’s going to be a guy who needs more looks before the triple-slash line and the low strikeout rates are seen as legit. At the least, the aggressive approach from a guy with the quickest hand-eye skills in the system is a welcome change.
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THIS WEEK ON PIRATES PROSPECTS
The premium article drop each week features the best articles on the site. These are the ones that take the most time and work, but also the topics which occupy the most head space in my brain. In most weeks, there is a reporting aspect. This week’s articles featured more scouting, stats, and a bit of speculation.
In my premium column for Patreon subscribers, I looked at the cautious approach the Pirates are taking with Paul Skenes. I agree with the approach, but broke down how it could have limits that would call for him being up before the Super Two dates pass.
**Williams: The Pirates Should Be Taking a Cautious Approach With Paul Skenes
I wrote two articles this week looking at depth options who stand out to me in Triple-A.
Nick Gonzales was taken seventh overall in the 2020 draft. He’s dealt with swing and miss issues, which have kept him in Triple-A. In the early part of the season, he’s showing positive overall improvements with his strikeout rates, while still having some underlying concerns about swing and miss.
**Examining the Swing and Miss of Nick Gonzales – READING
Malcom Nunez is a stocky corner infield prospect who can play third, but has the power for first base. After hitting three home runs to start the season, I looked deeper at the power bat of Nunez, and his brief history in Triple-A already as a 23-year-old prospect.
**Malcom Nunez Brings Plus Power Bat to Indianapolis
This week I also highlighted three lower level pitchers who have stood out to me in early looks as potential MLB starters.
The Pirates drafted Hunter Barco in the second round of the 2022 draft, while the lefty from Florida was out with Tommy John. Now fully recovered, Barco is pitching in Greensboro, and has thrown seven shutout frames in his first two starts of the season, with an advanced mix of pitches.
**Hunter Barco is Showing Why the Pirates Invested in Him
Alessandro Ercolani is a 19-year-old pitcher from the small country of San Marino, with a mix of six pitches that all show promise. The Pirates gave him the assignment of pitching in High-A Greensboro, which he embraced with four shutout innings in his debut.
**Alessandro Ercolani is a Big Talent From a Small Country
Patrick Reilly was drafted as a reliever out of Vanderbilt last season, but with a mid-90s fastball that gets up to 98, and a plus slider, it’s easy to see why the Pirates are giving him a shot in the rotation. He’s showing promising control results in the early games, reversing the issue that has held him back the most.
**Patrick Reilly Features An Elite Fastball, With Early Positive Results in Control
