In yesterday’s article, I wrote about how Jared Triolo stood out in high leverage situations at the plate. Among Pirates hitters with ten or more high-leverage plate appearances, Triolo was the clear winner with a 240 wRC+ in 22 plate appearances.
Joshua Palacios was second. Andrew McCutchen was third. McCutchen has a career 132 wRC+ in high leverage situations, showing that from him, it’s a repeatable skill. Triolo and Palacios are still in the earlier stages of their MLB careers, and time will tell if they see the same continued success in high leverage moments.
My belief is that a player knows when a situation is more intense and important. They might not always recognize the line between medium and high leverage, or low and medium leverage, but there are moments when a player can’t help but notice the enormity of the actual moment. Some players are “clutch” in these situations, displaying a long-term tendency of production like we saw with McCutchen. They know how to reach a special area of focus in their brain.
Today, I’m looking at the 2023 Pirates hitters who graded above-average in each leverage situation, to see who was rising above the moments.
HIGH LEVERAGE LEADERS
It’s important to note how rare a high leverage plate appearance can be. A hitter might get just one per game, but he won’t even get one every game. You might go a week without seeing a high leverage situation. Then, it’s your turn.
These are the situations that matter the most, and the players below are the Pirates hitters who performed at an above-average rate during those key moments. At the very least, these are the guys you turn to when the game is on the line. The larger the sample, the more the player has displayed a repeatable skill, as this is a skill displayed across many days. Ideally, you want a trend of years, but that comfort is impossible for younger players to accomplish.
The 2023 league average wRC+ for high leverage situations was 96. The Pirates had eight batters with 10+ plate appearances and a higher wRC+.
- Jared Triolo – 22 PA / 240 wRC+
- Joshua Palacios – 33 / 159
- Andrew McCutchen – 43 / 143
- Miguel Andujar – 12 / 135
- Ji Hwan Bae – 29 / 133
- Bryan Reynolds – 56 / 130
- Ke’Bryan Hayes – 51 / 124
- Tucupita Marcano – 15 / 116
Sample size matters. Miguel Andujar, for example, has a dozen games in September. Those high leverage situations don’t tell us as much as Bryan Reynolds seeing a high leverage situation in over 50 games.
Andrew McCutchen has 837 high leverage plate appearances in his career, and he’s consistently a .303/.409/.463 hitter in those moments, even to this point in his career. He hit .313/.442/.438 in 2023 across those 43 plate appearances.
The obvious strong standouts here are Reynolds, Ke’Bryan Hayes, and McCutchen. I think that Triolo, Palacios, and Ji Hwan Bae have shown the tendency to show up in big moments at the plate, when they rarely arrive.
At the heart of sports, this is what we’re looking for: How a player performs in that one rare moment when the world stops and focuses on their at-bat.
It should be noted that Andujar, and Tucupita Marcano are no longer in the organization. Both had value to other teams. Marcano was lost on waivers to the Padres, after the Pirates tried to remove him from the 40-man ahead of an injured age-24 season. Andujar was waived and claimed by the Athletics, then signed for $1.7 million in 2024. The Padres should get Marcano for his age 25 season and beyond, while Andujar will be a solid bench bat for Oakland, at the least. Their values here are simply that they have shown a small tendency to perform in the biggest moments, which you can build upon.
MEDIUM LEVERAGE LEADERS
There are about two medium leverage at-bats per game. These are at-bats where a player is required to create the moment, rather than stepping up to the plate at the same time the moment arrives. These moments are driven more by skill than the pressure of the situation. This group, as a result, includes more regulars.
The MLB average wRC+ for medium leverage situations was 103. Below are the Pirates who were above-average in medium-leverage. You’ll notice it’s not all of the guys from the first list.
- Ji Man Choi – 32 PA / 148 wRC+
- Andrew McCutchen – 183 / 144
- Jared Triolo – 92 / 132
- Carlos Santana – 180 / 132
- Liover Peguero – 84 / 128
- Jack Suwinski – 233 / 125
- Alfonso Rivas – 33 / 123
- Miguel Andujar – 34 / 120
- Bryan Reynolds – 227 / 109
- Endy Rodriguez – 80 / 107
- Henry Davis – 118 / 104
From the high leverage list, we are missing Palacios, Bae, Hayes, and Marcano. Hayes appears in the low leverage list below. Palacios showed up in some big moments in 2023, and that should get him more opportunities off the bench in 2024. The same would go for Bae, with the hope that both players could improve their non-high leverage results.
These medium leverage situations represent an important repeatable skill. It’s the ability to be a starter. How good of a starter depends on whether you can also hit in low and high leverage situations.
Again, sample size matters. Andujar shows up again on this list, but with 34 plate appearances in September. That’s a good gamble for Oakland, and at $1.7 million, they can ultimately stash Andujar in Triple-A as depth if he doesn’t repeat the skill he showed this year. This is also the first year since 2018 that Andujar has performed at an above-average rate in medium and high leverage situations. He spent 2020 and 2021 beating up on low leverage moments. It’s possible Oakland got a player as he was turning the corner to his prospect status of old. Andujar might now be more capable of rising up to the average big moment in a game, which would make him a starter. For the record, I would have bet on Joshua Palacios over Miguel Andujar for 2024, but both are solid sleeper picks at a post-prospect age.
The Pirates turned this small sample of production from Ji-Man Choi into a trade with the Padres, which brought back Alfonso Rivas as a replacement. Rivas had a decent small sample, but didn’t excel in other moments, and has since been lost on waivers to the Guardians. The Pirates need a first baseman this offseason. I talked about two available players in Dom Smith and Rowdy Tellez from a different perspective earlier this week. Looking at leverage alone, I would pick Tellez all day over Smith. There’s more high leverage production from Tellez, but he also had better medium leverage results. Smith has done well in low leverage situations to fuel his results, which may be specifically valuable to the Pirates, as I’ll outline below. I mentioned in that article that Rhys Hoskins would likely be out of the price range of the Pirates. Hoskins shows up in every leverage situation with above-average production. The Pirates could add a star with Hoskins, a sleeper with Tellez, or a situational need with Smith. That said, I like their internal option of Triolo, as I laid out yesterday.
I like that Triolo shows up here, along with Liover Peguero, Henry Davis, and Endy Rodriguez. Those four all have shown the foundation to start in the majors, with a chance to grow from this production. Triolo is the only one who performed well in high leverage situations, and they all were below-average in low leverage moments.
Then there are the usual suspects with high sample sizes. Carlos Santana, McCutchen, Jack Suwinski, Reynolds. These are the starters you can rely upon.
LOW LEVERAGE LEADERS
Most games are made up of low and medium leverage plate appearances. In about a third of games, a hitter will run into a high leverage situation. Most in-game moments that a hitter faces are low to medium leverage, with a tendency toward the low.
Here’s an interesting twist: The MLB average wRC+ for low leverage situations is 98. Players are more likely to be productive in the medium situations, which doesn’t seem like it should be the case. Low leverage situations are when the game matters less. The players standing out in these moments are the players who are going to be playing hard, no matter the situation. They also might be the players who can generate their own energy, rather than rising to a moment. Here are the Pirates leaders:
- Connor Joe – 234 PA / 124 wRC+
- Jack Suwinski – 257 / 112
- Ke’Bryan Hayes – 233 / 110
- Bryan Reynolds – 357 / 108
There are two obvious standouts here. Number one is that this list is 75% made up of the three most reliable hitters on the team. Reynolds is above-average in every moment, making him a star. Suwinski only struggles when the high leverage situations come around. Hayes struggles in medium leverage situations, but has shown improvements across the board in the last year. He’s a star due to his offense being paired with Gold Glove defense. Suwinski could be a star if he improves his high leverage production, which is easier said than done.
Connor Joe is the other standout from this list. He doesn’t appear on any other list, but performs the best on the team when the game is low leverage. He does fall just slightly below-average in medium leverage situations. The way he plays up in this category brings up his overall value. Joe is the perfect example of a fringe starter, but might have more value to the Pirates, due to their specific makeup.
CONNOR JOE AND THE LOW LEVERAGE WARRIORS
Let’s start from the low leverage moments and work our way up.
Connor Joe is in the same class as Bryan Reynolds, Ke’Bryan Hayes, and Jack Suwinski, in that they all perform above average in low leverage situations. This can be half a game, so that’s important. It does leave out the average big moments in a game.
Joe falls slightly below average in medium leverage situations, which is the other half of most games. Reynolds and Suwinski are above-average in this area. Hayes is below-average, though I chalk that up to his nano-focus being spent on defensive awareness at third base. None of the other three play as demanding of a position for the mind, leaving them more alert for the bigger moments in the average game.
Every so often, a high leverage moment comes up for a hitter. This moment comes in every game for one hitter, but it’s not always the same hitter chosen. If you start Joe twice a week, he might not see that moment in either game. Or, he might see that moment three times in the same week in two games. That’s the beautiful randomness of baseball.
Joe doesn’t actually perform well in these random high leverage moments. Those are the times where you’d pull him for a Palacios type pinch hitter to rise to the moment, then hope that Palacios can maintain Joe’s energy the rest of the game, outside of the big moment.
Reynolds performs in every moment. Hayes shows up big for the rare high leverage moments. Suwinski does not, but performs in every other moment.
When Joe is starting off the bench, the goal is to give someone else a break. Joe is slightly below-average in medium leverage situations, which are the normal highest leverage moments you’ll face in a game. You can roll with that production, but he’s more likely to be lifted for a pinch hitter when a situational moment comes up that Joe can’t historically dial in for. When you think about Palacios, you think about his heroics in the second half. When you think about Joe, you think about a leadoff double and him turning to the dugout with a celebration to get his teammates fired up. Both of those players have value in their moments.
Using the 20-80 scouting scale, Palacios would grade as a 40. He’s not a consistent hitter in low and medium leverage situations, but he has a propensity to show up in high leverage moments.
Joe would grade as a 45, though you could argue him up to 50. He does well in low leverage moments. He performs about average in medium leverage, to the point where you can start him a few times a week. He struggles enough against high leverage that you’ll need a pinch hitter if the moment chooses his spot in the batting order. But he could grade as an average starter
Suwinski is a 55-grade, performing above-average in low and medium leverage situations. For most games, he’s a guy you can count on for above-average production. When the moment chooses him every few games, he doesn’t perform as well. I discount that, because of the nano-focus he spends in center field.
Ke’Bryan Hayes would be a 55-grade as a hitter, who I’d bump to 60 due to his third base nano-focus. If he hit during the medium leverage situations, he’d be a 60-65.
Bryan Reynolds is a 60-grade who hits in every situation. He does play a lower nano-focus position. However, his nano-focus goes toward hitting. He’s got the clutch abilities of Palacios, the ability to create his own energy like Joe, and the ability to show up in the medium leverage situations that represent your average big moment in a game.
HOW MANY STARTERS DO THE PIRATES HAVE?
The concerning thing for the Pirates is they only have three players who you could grade as realiable starters, by this leverage look. Those would be Hayes, Suwinski, and Reynolds.
Triolo, Peguero, Rodriguez, and Davis all show up for the average big at-bats in a game. None of them can create their own leverage in a game yet, and Triolo is the only one who has shown an early ability to rise above even the highest leverage moments.
From this group, the Pirates have seven potential starters. That’s obviously short by two. This is where I’ll note that Oneil Cruz returns next year. Cruz has 48 career high leverage plate appearances, with a 187 wRC+. He’s got 200 medium leverage plate appearances with a 111 wRC+. He falls below-average in low-leverage situations at a 77 wRC+. He’s a very impactful guy to have, especially in big moments. Cruz’s return will be a huge boost to the Pirates.
Here are some quick facts about how the Pirates grade, compared to the league:
- There were 182 players in baseball who performed above-average in low leverage moments, with a sample size of 100+ such plate appearances. That’s an expected average of six per team. The Pirates had four.
- There were also 194 players in baseball who performed above-average in medium leverage moments, with a sample size of 80+ such plate appearances. That maintains an average of six per team. The Pirates have six players who fit that description. Seven if they bring back Andrew McCutchen. Eight if they bring back an equivalent of Carlos Santana/Alfonso Rivas at first base.
- The high leverage breakdown is the same. 182 players in baseball with above-average results. A sample size of 20+ plate appearances, aimed at getting around 360 players, or 12 players per team on average. Six per team should be above-average. The Pirates have five returning, or six if they bring back McCutchen.
From this perspective, the Pirates have clear needs this offseason. They fall short of people who can set the table and build up game leverage in the team’s favor. Perhaps this is why some games feel hopelessly out of reach, or why the offense feels like it can’t wake up some nights.
The Pirates have an above-average amount of players who can outperform the average big moment in a game, when an at-bat could make a more impactful difference.
They fall just short of players who can outperform the biggest moments in a week, when the game is on the line and the moment turns to them.
Bringing back Andrew McCutchen to the team in a part-time role would solve the need for a high-leverage hitter who can perform in the average big game moment. From there, the Pirates need players who have a history of creating their own leverage. Having a proper amount of players who perform well in medium and high leverage situations doesn’t help if the Pirates aren’t being consistently put in those situations.
