If I were projecting out an Opening Day rotation for the 2023 Pittsburgh Pirates, the starting five probably wouldn’t include Johan Oviedo.
That’s not to say that it shouldn’t.
The current projected rotation would include Mitch Keller, Roansy Contreras, JT Brubaker, and Rich Hill. If Oviedo were to make the Opening Day rotation, he would need to beat out Vince Velasquez for the fifth spot.
It seems more likely to me that Oviedo begins the season in the minors, since the Pirates signed Velasquez for over $3 million and announced him as a member of their starting group. Both pitchers should get starts in the majors in 2023.
I wanted to take a closer look at Oviedo, because on the surface it really seems like Velasquez should be backing up Oviedo — granted, based on a small sample from Oviedo.
The Pirates acquired Oviedo in the Jose Quintana trade last July from the St. Louis Cardinals. They also got first baseman Malcom Nunez in the deal, who I wrote about for Baseball America recently.
Oviedo seems like he may have flown under the radar a bit. We’re seeing a culture in baseball now where prospects quickly lose their shine if they don’t arrive and light the world on fire at the age of 22.
Prior to the deal, Oviedo had 112.1 innings in the majors for the Cardinals. In that time, he had a 4.65 ERA, a 7.45 K/9, a 4.33 BB/9, and a 1.2 HR/9. He was in his age-24 season, and a lot of the struggles came in 2021, when he made 13 MLB starts at the age of 23 and had a 4.91 ERA.
Oviedo returned to the majors in St. Louis in 2022, working mostly in relief. He had a 3.20 ERA in 25.1 innings prior to the trade. His walk rate significantly improved in his move to the bullpen, though his home run rate was still an issue.
After joining the Pirates, Oviedo made seven starts in September. He put up a 3.23 ERA in 30.2 innings, with a higher walk rate than his bullpen numbers earlier in the year, but a vastly reduced home run rate.
There wasn’t a significant change in his pitch usage. He used the changeup more often as a starter, taking away from his slider a bit. He was actually more difficult to hit as a starter across the board with his pitches.
The fastball averaged 96 MPH and topped out at 99. Despite his success out of the bullpen, hitters were squaring up on the fastball, with a .203 ISO against. This dropped to an .042 ISO with the Pirates.
The slider is a nasty pitch, sitting mid-80s and leading to his best whiff rate of all his pitches. Again, this pitch was getting hit prior to the trade, with a .260 ISO. That dropped to an .053 ISO after the trade.
Looking at his zone profile, Oviedo made a slight shift in where he was pitching after joining the Pirates. The chart below from Brooks Baseball shows his exit velocities and pitch counts in each section, while with the Cardinals in 2022.
First, it’s a bit of a surprise that Oviedo had the success he had while getting hit so hard. I do want you to focus on the bottom six squares, extending from the middle of the bottom of the zone, all the way to the square that is low and outside, hitting the left-handed batters in the foot.
Prior to the trade, Oviedo was throwing almost 45% of his pitches in this section. The results were either a ball, or a hard hit. I’ll point out that Oviedo benefitted from an 88% strand rate in St. Louis.
Oviedo made five appearances with Indianapolis, throwing 11.1 innings after the trade. He was lights out in those appearances. The Pirates called him up to the majors in September, where he finished the year in their rotation. Here is his exit velocity zone profile with the Pirates. Notice how he shifted the section above to the bottom of the strike zone.
Oviedo is still dropping out of the low part of the zone, but he’s almost eliminated the pitch that would be low and inside to lefties, or a big chase for right-handers. Even better, he became effective at the bottom of the zone, with his exit velocities dropping.
The notable thing here is that he closed the season against his old team for two starts. In those outings, he got hit around a bit, with a .375 average against the fastball, and a 217 average against the slider. However, he held his own, limiting the damage to a .118 ISO against the fastball and a .130 ISO against the slider.
I will tell you that I don’t know what happened to get these results.
This could be a great case of scouting, where the Pirates found a guy who severely turned things around in a small sample of success in the majors. To illustrate this, here is the exit velocity chart for Oviedo from his 2021 season with the Cardinals.
That’s a lot of red.
How much would 25 innings impact your decision after 13 starts with those results? The Pirates obviously bought in, and hoped for more.
It’s possible they spent time in Indianapolis focused on getting Oviedo to throw more over the plate. He seems like the perfect candidate to just trust his stuff and let opponents try to cause damage. Even against his old team, the fastball was mostly hit for singles and the slider wasn’t giving up home runs.
If you watch the video below, you can see his tendency to work that low corner in the left-handed batter’s box. His work with the Pirates is tighter, nailing that corner with more precision, rather than a sweeping movement that relies on a chase.
There are a few great pitches with the Cardinals against Ji-Man Choi and Bryan Reynolds. Focus especially on the last two pitches, which came with the Pirates against the Cardinals.
Just seeing those two pitches makes me wonder what Vince Velasquez could do in a long-relief role.
Here’s the difference between Oviedo snapping those pitches in close to the edge of the plate, versus having them sweeping away hoping for a chase: He forces a decision for the hitter.
Disciplined batters will quickly dismiss a pitch that is heading out of the zone. Oviedo will have success against the non-disciplined hitters — and there are many in the majors these days — so long as he gets ahead in the count. But with his stuff, why even try to get people to chase?
If Oviedo can maintain this type of precision in attacking the low part of the zone with his fastball/slider combo, then his stuff should be good enough to continue limiting home runs and reducing the impact of any walks. He seems like a guy who could put up average numbers as a 25-year-old starter, while keeping you waiting for him to take the next step to iron out his control issues.
If I were projecting out an Opening Day rotation for the 2023 Pittsburgh Pirates, the starting five probably wouldn’t include Johan Oviedo.
But it probably should.
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