Prospect Roundtable: Who Should the Pirates Draft in the First Round?

It’s difficult to predict what any team will do in the MLB draft these days.

Even when the Pirates had the first overall pick, we didn’t know the direction they would take until draft day. We didn’t see their 2021 plan fully play out until weeks later when they signed all of their over-slot prep picks.

The Pirates have the fourth pick on Sunday, and this year’s draft class is just as unpredictable. With that in mind, I asked our writers who they want in the first round, and what type of strategy they want to see.

For a preview of who is available, check out John Dreker’s breakdown from earlier this week.

JOHN DREKER

If I was picking for the Pirates, my draft strategy going in could change depending on the first three picks. I’m going for Druw Jones or Jackson Holliday if either of them makes it to the fourth pick. If they don’t drop to the Pirates, then I prefer the pick of Cam Collier, who is not only a high upside pick, but he should allow for savings with the pick to be spread around to over-slot picks that dropped due to bonus demands.

From everything I’ve read, if he doesn’t go to the Pirates, then Collier is going in the 8-10 range, which is a drop of $1.6 M to $2.1 M in slot value. Part of my draft strategy would involve feeling out the bonus demands first, which is standard practice in the draft. I prefer Collier, but I’d be okay with Termarr Johnson if the demands are similar. I’d also be fine with local shortstop Cole Young if the price is significantly cheaper, which would give the Pirates an even bigger bonus pool to work with for late picks.

I think the Pirates attacked the draft perfectly last year. Even though I thought Henry Davis was still a nice pick, there were some savings involved because he probably would have went a few picks lower if the Pirates passed. That savings was spread around to three high upside high school picks, as well as two other high school picks getting bonuses that were above slot. If they can do that again, then there’s a chance for huge upside as a two-year group of picks.

While we won’t know for years if that strategy pays off for the 2021 class, I’d still be willing to double down on the approach, as long as I’m not passing up a player like Jones or Holliday to take that chance. I think if you have a chance for top tier talent, you have to take that player. If I get one of them, then I’d save with my 5th-10th round picks with college seniors so I could still add some strong over-slot picks with earlier picks. As my own studies have shown here, there is very little chance of a payoff in those rounds, but taking college seniors cheap doesn’t wipe away all chances either.

The Pirates have a great farm system right now, but they need more top tier talent to increase their odds of competing long-term. If they trust in their development team, then the correct strategy in my opinion is taking on risk in favor of potential huge upside.

WILBUR MILLER

There are a half dozen or so players the Pirates could legitimately take at 1-4. I don’t see how anybody can genuinely say this player for sure is better than that player, so unless they do something really odd, it’s going to be hard to criticize their pick. Of the top players, the two I’d prefer would be Druw Jones or Jackson Holliday. Neither seems likely to fall to the Pirates, so I’ll focus on the others.

It’s easiest as a process of elimination. One I’m pretty sure I don’t want is Brooks Lee. He already has an injury history and, especially bad, it includes back problems so, no. Kevin Parada looks like he might have the best combination of offensive upside and modest risk, and I wouldn’t pass on him just because he’s a catcher. I just think the prep guys probably have more overall upside. I was concerned about Termarr Johnson because he played against weak competition in high school, but Kiley McDaniel did a convincing job of talking him up recently. McDaniel also played down the swing-and-miss concerns about Elijah Green, who seems the consensus highest-upside player. Finally, there’s Cam Collier, who has done well at age 17 against JuCo players.

If he’s there, I probably couldn’t pass up Green. The Pirates need quality, not quantity. The notion that “they can’t afford to miss with a first-rounder” is misleading. A first-rounder who turns into an average major league regular is a successful pick, but it’s not what the Pirates need. They have lots of depth in the system; what they need is top-tier players, so going with a guy just because he’s less likely to flop doesn’t really make sense if the ceiling is lower. If Green isn’t there, I’d probably go with Collier or Johnson, in that order. At least one report has said the Pirates are likely to try to use the slot approach they did last year, and those two supposedly are the most likely of the better talents to sign under slot at 1-4. Of course, it’s impossible to know who’ll sign for what, and even harder to know what over-slot candidates might be available later. The Pirates will be talking with quite a few agents, no doubt, so they’ll have better information on what exactly they can do.

ANTHONY MURPHY

Entering the season, I had a few names in mind that I liked, but wasn’t sure about the value in taking them with the fourth overall pick — Chase DeLauter, Gavin Cross, and Cam Collier.

Now here we are with the draft in a couple of days and not only has Collier been rumored to the Pirates, but he’s turned himself into a legitimate option as the fourth overall pick.

When looking at the draft one of the biggest mistakes you can make is drafting for need, especially with the fourth overall pick. It’s easy to overlook the 17-year-old’s potential to remain at third base, especially now with Ke’Bryan Hayes locked up long term, but Collier’s bat is enough to get excited for and one that will eventually play at any position he ends up.

I don’t dislike the Pirates previous two years’ worth of strategy when it comes to the draft, and if they want to continue that, I don’t mind taking a good look at Kevin Parada as well.

Collier is very much advanced for his age, will begin the 2022 season at 18-years-old, has the bat skills to justify a top-four pick and the raw skills that could give him some of the biggest upside in the draft.

He’s committed to Louisville but I’m not sure someone goes the G.E.D. to Junior College route if they are just going to end up on campus. With some of the injury problems we’ve seen on the pitching side, I wouldn’t mind another heavy focus on prep pitching to add to the depth, and if the Pirates can save some on Collier, all the better.

He would give them another impact bat in the lower levels and would fit in perfectly with that potential wave that features Bubba Chandler, Anthony Solometo and Braylon Bishop.

TIM WILLIAMS

The Pirates have the fourth overall pick, and I would put prep outfielder Druw Jones, prep shortstop Jackson Holliday, and prep outfielder Elijah Green as my top three choices. There’s a good chance that Green is still available, at which point the Pirates will be faced with a similar situation as last year — go with a more expensive, higher upside guy who doesn’t stand out above the rest, or go with a cheaper college bat and spread the savings around in the middle rounds.

If the Pirates were to take a college bat, it would make sense to add for a current position of need. That is still easy to find in Pittsburgh, though any draft pick this year will face competition. They’ve been linked to Brooks Lee, who is a strong hitting shortstop who will likely move to second base. My thought is that Lee would cost more than the other college picks, but wouldn’t have a considerably higher upside.

Termarr Johnson, a prep shortstop from Georgia, could be an interesting option to save money and get a higher upside prep pick who could develop into more. Cam Collier might be a more interesting option out of the JuCo ranks. He’s 17-years-old and could have a chance to stick at third, with plus contact and above-average power.

If the Pirates are looking for immediate impact, Jacob Berry might be an interesting sleeper pick. He’s a corner infielder from Louisiana State, who would likely fit in at first base or DH long-term. He’s a switch-hitter with plus power and plus hitting grades, and he’s projected for a quicker path to the majors due to being a high makeup guy on and off the field. The Pirates don’t have a first base option long-term. This pick would be banking entirely on the bat, with the hope that the player can play a position of need. The upside is that Berry would come with a lot of savings to maximize who the Pirates could take in the middle rounds.

If they want a repeat of last year — a quick upper level boost of need and a big accumulation of talent in the lower levels — Berry would be the most interesting way to do that. I think they could also get savings with Collier and Johnson, though the savings would be less than a college bat. Personally, I’d go for the upside and assumed savings from Collier.