Brooks Lee Goes to the Pirates in Latest Mock Draft

Stop me if you’ve heard this before. There’s a new mock draft out and in it the Pittsburgh Pirates are selecting Cal Poly shortstop Brooks Lee with the fourth overall pick in the 2022 draft. This one is the latest from Jim Callis of MLB Pipeline. He notes that this is their fifth straight mock draft in which Lee goes to the Pirates. He’s also been the pick on Baseball America and ESPN recently. In case you missed it, here’s our Draft Prospect Watch article looking at Lee. This is our latest Draft Prospect Watch article. There will be another one on Sunday morning.

Callis has Jackson Holliday going to the Baltimore Orioles with the first overall pick. He’s followed by Druw Jones and Elijah Green in the second and third spots, just ahead of Lee. We still have just over five weeks left before the draft takes place, so there could be some changes at the top still, but Lee has not moved from that spot in quite some time. Callis notes that the Pirates seem to be looking for a college bat.

If you missed it from yesterday, Baseball America posted updated rankings.

2022 Draft
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1979andCounting

2017 1/1 Royce Lewis to miss his second full season with another ACL surgery. 2018 1/1 Casey Mize getting TJ. 2019 1/1 Adley Rutschman has a 32 OPS+ in his first month.
The draft is literally like going to Vegas. Which is why quality picks other than first round are so important.

john_fluharty

I wonder how often these mock drafts are even right.

Wilbur Miller

Maybe 12-15 years ago, or thereabouts, BA (which was pretty much the only player in this game) often got a surprising number of the first 10-15 picks right. They seemed to do it mainly through inside info. It’s gotten much tougher in recent years. I think the pool system made things more complicated — the Pirates’ 2021 draft is a perfect example — and teams also got more secretive. On the latter, it’s probably both to keep other teams guessing and to keep agents from knowing what they’re ready to pay.

I don’t think projections are worth much without inside info. When the Pirates took Cole, for instance, Keith Law in particular flat said from a very early stage that the Pirates were totally locked in on him. Last year, all the stories said they were looking at the top 6-8 guys, without narrowing it down. The “projections,” like with Mayer, were just people trying to guess, not what people were hearing about what the Pirates were actually doing.

Maybe they’ll take Lee, but if they do it’ll be more the blind squirrel effect than anything else. What the mocks mainly do is provide info about the top guys and how scouts generally are seeing them.

Last edited 2 months ago by Wilbur Miller
Bucs'N'Pucks (Jeff Reed)

Seeing as I believe going into last draft everyone had the Pirates going Mayer, I’d say rarely if ever lol

gosteelers69

Take Parada!

Bucs'N'Pucks (Jeff Reed)

If you like HR’s, this ECU vs Texas matchup is fire emoji

Scrappy2499

Where I went to school. ECU has had good baseball teams for awhile.

Bucs'N'Pucks (Jeff Reed)

Also…

Bryson Worrell. Make it happen

Bucs'N'Pucks (Jeff Reed)

He gives me strong Gorski vibes

AdministrativeSky236

https://www.mlb.com/news/top-prospects-2022-mlb-draft-combine?t=mlb-draft-coverage

Lots of top names in our range plus talent overall going to be at the draft combine. Not sure how many will be doing on the field stuff, but I assume our staff will get to talk to them all for whatever that is worth

Bucs'N'Pucks (Jeff Reed)

Wow. Last year must’ve had quite an effect. They didn’t really have many big names last year, and it was more college guys that slipped, or less known prep kids. That’s how I became an Edwin Arroyo fan, and then the Mariners stole him!!!!!

roberto

My sense is that Johnson and Jones are the only two 2022 draftees with much of a chance to become stars. Am I wrong?

On the other hand, I could see Bae, Davis, and Peguero as possible stars. Am I wrong?

NMR

If you believe #2 then you should believe there’s a hell of a lot more stars than #1 .

skliesen

Definitely yes to question #1 , and hopefully yes to question #2 .

AdministrativeSky236

I think lesko and green are both added to that group, at least. Not sure if any of holliday or the college bats get there. I guess maybe prielipp since he was vaguely in the top 5 convo before getting hurt, and I am biased towards collier but generally probably not the most likely star in the class I suppose

jeffw3000

I am really beginning to like Holliday more than anybody after he broke JT Realmuto’s record for hits by a High School player. Everything I have read they rave about his makeup, and he had an incredible year this year. I don’t think there is much chance of him falling to us however.

NMR

They’re at least tying the Lee selection to rumors of the Pirates focusing on college bats, which makes it a perfectly rational guess.

skliesen

Still makes me throw up in my mouth. We don’t need another Kevin Newman in the organization.

If they’re going college bat, I’d hope they’re smart enough to take the Catcher from GT. But as you know, I want Lesko most of all.

Cobra

Question: seems like Lee is a very credible pick at #4 but am I wrong to sense there maybe is a lack of outright excitement about him (on this message Board & elsewhere) as a pick ? If so why is that , just risk of him being in a smaller program, or is there something more? Any recent comps to Lee from prior drafts?

CTBucco

The BIG RED FLAG to me on Lee is that he did not produce in the (only!) five games he played against top conference teams (all Pac-12) – three games vs UW, 1 each vs Cal & Stanford. His line in those was 5-22 with 1 run, 3 rbi, and just one XBH (a HR). He had 3 BBs and 1 K. It’s a super small sample, but it doesn’t scream success. That said, he was 12-28 in 6 games against USC and UCLA in 2021 with 11 rbi and 6 xbh’s.

NMR

I think Pirate fans have been conditioned to see the draft as our shot to grab a future star, and rightly so.

While Lee, like Davis and Gonzales, would be and have been perfectly rational selections they all lack that inherent upside I think many of us are craving. Performance-over-tools types of players, and at least for me the Nicky Gonzales small-school red flag waves pretty heavily for this type of player.

Lee feels like an Austin Martin to me with a bit more size and less athleticism:

“The best pure hitter in the 2020 Draft, Martin has tremendous feel for the barrel and makes consistent hard contact with a short, quick right-handed stroke. He’s not overly physical and may not have more than average raw power, but his hitting ability allows him to tap into every bit of it. He controls the strike zone extremely well and uses the entire field, exhibiting no weaknesses at the plate.”

Last edited 2 months ago by NMR
Wilbur Miller

Now that’s scary.
To me, the back problems are even scarier.

Bucs'N'Pucks (Jeff Reed)

From being the star on Cal Poly and carrying the team on his back?

roibert.kasperski

What are his back problems? If he has a back issue, hard no for me as well just like @ArkyWags.

ArkyWags

Wait, Lee has back issues? If so, hard pass for me.

Wilbur Miller

From BA:

Lee’s only major concern is his health. He missed time with multiple back injuries in high school and had hamstring surgery as a true freshman.

TNBucs

This is enough for me to prefer Parada over Lee if we want to go college hitter, even if scouts like Lee better.

OTOH, Rendon dropped because of health concerns…

AdministrativeSky236

Exactly. I think we have enough depth in the organization to have likely serviceable major leaguers at every position, at some places we are 2-3 deep.We don’t have many players that scream potential star, though. You need both types of players to build a winning club, but feels like its time to shoot for the stars

NMR

Precisely what’s holding me back on the excitement around the young guys.

I see them adding up to little more than the .500 ballclubs of late Huntington era, which admittedly feel like a godsend right now, but completely unworthy of a disastrously long rebuild.

If youre gonna do this, elite is the only worthwhile outcome.

ArkyWags

A very interesting baseball America podcast from a few weeks back: when do you determine that a rebuild has failed? They were using the Tigers as a test case, although the Phillies seem just as apt.

Anyway I thought it relevant to the topic at hand because of how badly they failed with a lot of the development in the farm system.

Last edited 2 months ago by ArkyWags
Bucs'N'Pucks (Jeff Reed)

I was just thinking of where the White Sox are. Tony running with his old tricks, their farm system is decimated, and they’re 3 under 500

ArkyWags

The Pale Hose at least got two playoff spots out of it and may get one this year still because that division is awful. But yeah, I get the feeling their time at the top will be short lived.

NMR

Marlins also 5 under in what, year 6 of their rebuild?

Bucs'N'Pucks (Jeff Reed)

Yeah, something like that. And as I’m typing this, they’re almost the poor man’s Gaurdians. But they’re absolutely loaded with filthy pitching prospects, but can’t develop/find an OF to save their life.

ArkyWags

Is it too late to trade Reynolds to them for some of those arms?

Bucs'N'Pucks (Jeff Reed)

As bad as the Marlins OF is, it may not be. They’ve gotta be in, or REALLY close, to the desperation zone. Even if not, they have that many young controllable arms that they could spare a huge upside kid. Even Eder had just cracked Top 100’s before going down with injury. Which that itself may cause one to proceed with caution, as they have all these big arms that tend to come down with big injuries. Sixto hasn’t pitched since covid season. Eder just had TJS. Meyer has been out for almost a month. Edward Cabrera has had biceps injuries a coupe times now.

AdministrativeSky236

Thats fair. I think the current MLB roster could mature to a little over .500, but I still find enough upside in the minors for there to be a division winner built from within. There’s depth at the minors to maintain .500 but beyond cruz, davis, peggy, and maybe burrows theres not a ton of high upside there. Last year’s high schools probably yields high upside but they are all at least 4 years away, so would be nice to augment that group with this year’s class

AdministrativeSky236

Speak it into existence so we dont take him! Pounding the table for cam collier, or one of those top 3 if they fall

jeffw3000

I would take Lee over Collier, but still prefer whoever falls to us between Jones, Holliday, Green and Johnson. Would even take Parada over Lee, but doubt they would take him, since they took Davis last year.

Anthony Murphy

With the universal DH you could make Davis and Parada work. Plus you could swing one over to 1B once a week also. Right now at this point I don’t think I’d mind either one of the two.

roberto

Pittsburgh! The catcher factory!

Scrappy2499

Remember the days when we had no catching…lol

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