Bristol has been a difficult team to cover in terms of watching for prospects. The Pirates send most of their top young hitters from the GCL to West Virginia, skipping over rookie ball. They send their top prep pitchers from the previous year’s draft to Bristol, although the 2015 draft was light on prep pitchers, so the 2016 roster didn’t have a lot of upside. The result this year was one of the worst prospect groups in the system in the last few years. It’s all worth it to get Adrian Valerio time at shortstop (when he otherwise would have been held back in the GCL, or split time with Stephen Alemais in Morgantown), along with extra pitching spots for some of the fringe pitchers who could go to West Virginia next year.
But there needs to be perspective when reading this list, as it’s not like other top 10 lists this year. Valerio is the one player who would have a shot at other lists. The next 3-4 players would have a shot at rounding out other lists in the lower levels, or making the “Other” section. And then the bottom half has some interesting stories, with a lot of players who are new to baseball, have one good skill, or have an approach that works very well in the lower levels and doesn’t project for upper level success. These are the types of guys we’d just ignore for a prospect list in other levels, waiting for them to show something that makes them a legit prospect. Instead, they make up half this list. With that said, here are the top ten prospects from the 2016 Bristol Pirates.
TOP 10 BRISTOL PIRATES PROSPECTS
The cutoff for eligibility on this list was 70 at-bats, 20 innings pitched, or 10 relief appearances. This excluded injured players Blake Cederlind and Brent Gibbs. Most of the list is based on upside, rather than the results this year. Like the GCL rankings, these players are so far away that even their upside is hard to peg.
1. Adrian Valerio, SS – Valerio has the most talent on the team, with excellent defensive skills at shortstop, and the ability to make solid contact and drive the ball to the gaps at the plate. He’s not consistent with applying his tools to the game on either side of the ball, which still leaves him a bit raw. On offense, he will do well, then have a big hit and follow that up by getting in a routine of swinging for the fences. He’s a guy who will be successful hitting for average, with the occasional gap power, and home runs not even being a factor in his game. But he tries to be a guy who can hit homers and gap shots, and this throw off the offense. The defensive skills are there, with smooth moves, good glove work, and a strong arm. But he can be a bit out of control at times, preventing him from reaching his full potential. He’s working on funneling the ball to his chest, rather than to his side, which should help his throwing accuracy and lead to more controlled results. Valerio is the only sure top 50 prospect on the team, with most of the other guys battling for the final spots. He’s got some talented shortstops ahead of him in Kevin Newman, Cole Tucker, and Stephen Alemais, but has the talent to be in that conversation, even if he’s the most raw of the group.
2. Victor Fernandez, OF – Fernandez showed off above-average to plus speed this year, and was one of the fastest players on the team. The speed has been the big appeal with him during his first two seasons in pro ball, but this year he added some offense, with a .314/.382/.450 line. He showed a good approach at the plate, with a 15.8% strikeout rate and a 7.7% walk rate. He also saw a boost in his power, with a .136 ISO, which is difficult in the Appy league, and in Bristol, with the deep fences and high walls all around the park. He missed some time with a leg injury at the end of the year, but returned and kept hitting in the final week of the season, with his only two homers in his final seven games. He’s older than most of the Latin American players in the lower levels, turning 22 on Monday. That makes the results much more important here, as it shows he could be ready for a push to West Virginia next year, where he would be much more age appropriate. It will be difficult to evaluate what kind of upside he has until he can show these numbers at a higher level.
3. Ike Schlabach, LHP – Schlabach was one of two prep pitchers signed by the Pirates from the 2015 draft, and one of three prep players total signed by the Pirates that year. He’s not as polished as the guys from the 2014 or 2016 classes, coming closer to Austin Shields than any of the others. He’s got a tall and skinny frame with a lot of projection, and the potential to add some velocity if he fills out. He sat 89-91 MPH when I saw him, but his tall frame gives him a funky delivery with a lot of moving parts, allowing the fastball to play up. He’s not always consistent with that though. When his stuff is on, he’s sharp and very difficult to hit. When it’s off, he leaves the ball up and gets hit hard. He looks like a guy who might have some upside once he gets comfortable with his tall frame and his mechanics, and won’t need a lot of extra velocity if he can maintain his deception as a left-hander with a weird delivery.
4. Matt Eckelman, RHP – Eckelman has some great command of his secondary stuff, with that command and his ability to mix up pitches allowing his average offerings to play up. His fastball is above-average, sitting 90-93 MPH and touching 94, again with good control. He had some outstanding numbers this year in Bristol, with a 2.76 ERA and a 55:9 K/BB ratio in 62 innings. That’s to be expected from a college pitcher with great command of four pitches, and a low-90s fastball. He’ll probably make the jump to West Virginia next year, and could have a shot at the rotation, or at least a long relief role. He’s got a big build, so conditioning will be a focus for him going forward, but that build will also allow him to rack up innings as a starter if he can stick in the rotation. He’ll need better secondary stuff in order to have success in the upper levels.
5. Michael De La Cruz, OF – De La Cruz was the top signing for the Pirates in the 2012 international signing period, receiving $700,000. He has yet to show his potential, struggling in rookie ball in his first four seasons, making the jump to Bristol this year. He’s got some tools to work with. His speed matches Victor Fernandez, making him one of the fastest guys on this team. He’s got a good enough arm and the range to play center field. He draws a good amount of walks, although his strikeout rate went up this year to 26%. He’s got a good frame, but hasn’t added power. He’s a toolsy player, but it hasn’t come together to appear on the field. That’s a concern because he’s still struggling in rookie ball, but he also just turned 20 this year, so he’s got some time to try and put it all together.
6. John Pomeroy, RHP – Pomeroy didn’t get much work with Oregon State, throwing just 14.1 innings. He also walked 14 batters in that time, but struck out 14 as well. I saw him in instructs, and saw the reason for those stats. He’s got great velocity, sitting 93-96, and touching as high as 98, with good movement on the pitch. It can be too much movement at times, and he can be all over the place. When opponents make contact, they can’t do anything with the pitch, which means that Pomeroy is pretty much his own worst enemy right now due to the control lapses. The arm strength is something you can’t teach, and it’s not like he’s spent a lot of time pitching to work out his issues. The hope here is that with more experience, this raw arm will improve into an actual pitching prospect, and not just a hard thrower with no control.
7. Mike Wallace, RHP – Wallace put up some strong numbers this year, working between the Bristol rotation and the bullpen as a long reliever. He had a 3.10 ERA in 52.1 innings, with a 42:13 K/BB ratio. However, the results were due to an approach that probably won’t lead to success in the upper levels. He went very heavy on the off-speed stuff, only throwing his fastball about half the time. In the start I saw live, he went six shutout innings, striking out seven, but only threw 50% fastballs, sitting at 86-89 MPH. He threw 22 changeups in the outing, and due to his command of the off-speed pitches, he dominated the rookie level. It’s unlikely that this same approach will lead to success in A-ball or beyond.
8. Adam Oller, RHP – Oller is the opposite of Wallace. He has a fastball that sits 87-90, touching 91, but he works almost exclusively off the fastball, and when it’s on, it’s a pitch down in the zone that gets results. He doesn’t have a good secondary pitch, but still managed to get 46 strikeouts and only eight walks in 54.2 innings, due to his fastball command. Without the secondary stuff, he looks like a guy who will move to a long relief role in West Virginia next year, and will struggle to have results beyond A-ball.
9. Garrett Brown, OF – Brown has one really strong tool, and that is plus-plus speed. He’s an interesting project, because he only really played one season of baseball in college, which came in 2016. He spent two years playing football at Western Carolina, and the lack of baseball time has left him very raw. That showed up this year when he showed off his speed, but also showed how rough he was in the field and at the plate. When he got on base, he was a weapon, with eight steals in nine attempts. But he only got on base at a .303 rate, which wasn’t horrible, but also not what you’d expect from a college player in rookie ball. He has a good reason, due to the lack of playing time, but that also comes with the fact that he will be 23 next year, meaning he doesn’t have a lot of time to polish his game.
10. Jhoan Herrera, 1B – Herrera is a big first baseman who has some power potential, with a .138 ISO in a very pitcher friendly Appy league. He has some decent K/BB ratios, with a 22.6% strikeout rate and a 9% walk rate, with both being rare for a guy with power potential out of the Dominican. He doesn’t project to be a good defender at first, but is better than he looked at third base when he entered the system. Right now he doesn’t have the power to be a legit prospect, and will need to carry that over to his game more often to get on the radar.
The Injured Players: Blake Cederlind was one of the more promising college pitchers from the Pirates’ draft, hitting 97 MPH in his pro debut, but having control problems. He dealt with forearm tightness, and the Pirates were cautious and shut him down after a start in late July. As a result, he fell short of the innings minimum. Brent Gibbs was the highest catcher taken by the Pirates this year, and showed off some promising defense and good leadership behind the plate. That was encouraging, as he didn’t have a lot of experience in college, red shirting for a year, spending a year with zero games played in Indiana, and then finally getting time his junior year after a transfer to Central Arizona. He could be the top catching prospect in West Virginia next year, but missed this list due to a wrist injury in late July, which put him shy of the at-bat minimum.
