Yesterday the trade deadline passed in a pretty uneventful fashion. To sum it all up, Bud Norris was the biggest name who was traded. That’s all you need to really know about the quality of the market on deadline day. But the big misconception with the trade deadline is that people think it’s the last chance to make a deal. In fact, teams can make deals beyond the deadline, as we saw last night with the addition of Robert Andino after the deadline had passed.
The big advantage to making deals prior to the July 31st deadline is that there are no restrictions on deals that can be made. Teams can trade with any other team, and for that reason, teams can try to maximize the value of the return for their players on the market by selling to the top bidder. That luxury is removed after the July 31st trade deadline. Teams are limited to making deals based on the waiver system, and the numerous scenarios that make it difficult to deal in August. Before I list some of those scenarios, let me first explain how trades work in the month of August.
August trades are made through revokable waivers. Any player on the 40-man roster can be placed on revokable waivers. If the player clears waivers, he can be traded to any team, without restrictions. If the player is claimed by another team, then his original team has a choice to make:
-They can let the player go to the claiming team, with the new team assuming the remainder of that player’s salary. We’ve seen this in previous years, specifically when the Chicago White Sox claimed Alex Rios from the Toronto Blue Jays in 2009, taking on the remaining $60 M of his salary.
-A team can also pull their player back from waivers if he is claimed. The team keeps their player, although they lose the right to place that player on waivers again. If a player has previously been pulled off of revokable waivers, and he is placed on waivers again, the team has no choice but to give him up to any claiming team.
-The original team can also work out a trade with the claiming team, which is something that happens frequently. Last year we saw a blockbuster in this fashion, where the Boston Red Sox traded Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez, and Nick Punto to the Los Angeles Dodgers during the August trading period.
Note: Players who are not on the 40-man roster don’t have to be passed through waivers.
The claim priority is based on league, and the current standings. Using the Pirates as an example:
-They currently have the 15th priority in the National League
-Any player waived by a National League team would have to pass through the 14 teams ahead of the Pirates
-Any player waived by an American League team would have to pass through every AL team, and the 14 NL teams ahead of the Pirates
Basically because the Pirates are in first place, they are at a disadvantage for the claiming process. A player waived by an AL team has to be passed on by every team in baseball, while a player waived by an NL team has to pass by the other 14 teams in the NL (including the Reds and Cardinals).
You’ll hear a lot of rumors about players being placed on waivers. Pretty much every player in the majors will be placed on waivers this month, with almost all of them being drawn back. Some teams place their entire 40-man roster on waivers, to try and disguise who they’re actually looking to pass through waivers. Some teams are looking to place players with big contracts on waivers, just hoping that another team will be willing to assume the salary. Just because a player is on waivers doesn’t necessarily mean the player is being shopped. And just because a player is claimed, doesn’t mean he will be traded.
Sometimes you hear about teams blocking other teams from making moves. For example, say the Pirates are looking for a right fielder. The Cardinals or Reds, with the higher priority, could claim every right field option that passes through waivers, essentially blocking the Pirates from making any upgrades. The risk taken here is that there’s no guarantee that the Reds or Cardinals don’t get stuck with a ton of unwanted fielders. The higher priority can serve as an advantage if two teams are looking to upgrade the same position. For example, if St. Louis and Pittsburgh are both looking for bullpen help, the Cardinals will have the priority as long as they are behind the Pirates in the standings.
The value of trades goes down in August, mostly because teams don’t have much negotiating power. They can only make a deal with one team, and they are limited with what they can receive in return, as they can only trade for players who reach them on waivers, or who aren’t on a 40-man roster.
To give you a better idea of how the process works, here are a few examples of the various types of trades that can be made:
A Player on the 40-Man for a Player on the 40-Man
In any trade where teams are trying to swap two (or more) players on the 40-man roster, those teams have to make sure that the players reach their destination. If the Pirates and the Marlins decide to make a swap of Player A and Player B, the Pirates have to hope that Player A passes through to Miami, while the Marlins have to hope that Player B passes through to Pittsburgh. All it takes is for one player to get blocked to prevent a deal from happening. Normally there is a gentleman’s agreement in place, although there can be some blocked deals. That’s especially true if you have a situation like I mentioned above, where two division rivals have the same need.
Example: When the Pirates traded Brian Giles in 2003 to the San Diego Padres, they received Jason Bay and Oliver Perez, who were both on the 40-man roster for San Diego. Getting Giles to the Padres wasn’t hard, as they had the number one waiver claim. However, Bay and Perez had to pass through three other NL teams before they could go to the Pirates.
A Player on the 40-Man for Prospects
Once a team claims a player, they can try to trade as many prospects as needed to get the other team to release that player, provided the prospects aren’t on the 40-man roster.
Example: Pretty much 90% of the deals that go through.
So there you have it! The July 31st trade deadline has passed, but teams still have until August 31st to make a trade. They can actually trade beyond August 31st under the same waiver rules, but only players acquired prior to September 1st can join the playoff roster, making September trades rare.
Waiver Wire Trade Candidates
It’s hard to predict who will pass through waivers, but here are a few guys who might be thrown around as big names in August, looking mostly at their salaries.
Justin Morneau – The Twins pretty much said they would rather try and deal Morneau in August. It makes sense. He is owed over $4 M for the remainder of the year. They’re not going to get much for him, and they would probably have to pick up salary. This way they can either dump his entire salary on a team, or wait to see if the market improves, allowing them to get a better return.
Alex Rios – He is owed $18 M over the next year and two months, which once again makes him a waiver trade candidate. The White Sox got him in 2009 because Toronto dumped his salary. I don’t see the same thing happening this year, especially since the White Sox could have easily dealt him for a small return if they wanted to dump salary.
Cliff Lee – Not a lot of teams can afford a pitcher making $25 M per year. I could see Lee clearing waivers and shopped, or at least being shopped in a Dodgers/Red Sox type of way. I don’t see him being an option for the Pirates though.
I don’t think Marlon Byrd would clear waivers, due to his low salary and his production. Same with Nate Schierholtz and David DeJesus. Both of those guys are affordable, and under team control for one more year. There could also be more names that join the market in the middle of the month, especially as teams fall out of the race. We will keep track of all of the players on the market who have been linked to the Pirates in our Pirates Rumors section.